Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
15th by playoff odds25 clubs

Lexington

8th · 8-4-7 · 28 pts
Playoffs81%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
10

Win the next 10 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
11

Lose the next 11 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home7:00 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 49%Draw 25%LV 26%Win → 91% · Draw → 78% · Loss → 68%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away15 AugSacramento1Lexington▼ -9090% → 81%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference1%
Championship2%

8th in the table · 15th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 6th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:00 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 49%Draw 25%LV 26%Win → 91% · Draw → 78% · Loss → 68%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wed 26 Aug · Away9:30 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 56%Draw 23%LEX 21%81% → 77% – 92%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home7:00 PM EDTColorado Springs77%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 45%Draw 26%COS 29%81% → 68% – 90%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTJacksonville<1%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 31%Draw 26%LEX 43%81% → 72% – 90%Playoffs
Full schedule11 to play
Saturday · Home7:00 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 49%Draw 25%LV 26%81% → 68% – 91%PlayoffsWed 26 Aug · Away9:30 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 56%Draw 23%LEX 21%81% → 77% – 92%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home7:00 PM EDTColorado Springs77%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 45%Draw 26%COS 29%81% → 68% – 90%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTJacksonville<1%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 31%Draw 26%LEX 43%81% → 72% – 90%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Away10:00 PM EDTOakland4%PlayoffsMatch resultOAK 36%Draw 27%LEX 37%81% → 73% – 91%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 39%Draw 27%OC 34%81% → 73% – 90%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Away10:00 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 30%Draw 26%LEX 44%81% → 74% – 91%PlayoffsSat 3 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTEl Paso86%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 45%Draw 26%ELP 29%81% → 70% – 90%PlayoffsFri 9 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 40%Draw 26%TUL 34%81% → 73% – 93%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 42%Draw 26%LEX 32%81% → 77% – 96%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away10:00 PM EDTPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultPHX 43%Draw 26%LEX 31%81% → 80% – 95%Playoffs

History

Final · Away15 AugSacramento1Lexington▼ -9090% → 81%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugPhoenix0Lexington±0182% → 82%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugMonterey Bay2Lexington±0370% → 70%Playoffs
All results19 played
Final · Away15 AugSacramento1Lexington▼ -9090% → 81%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugPhoenix0Lexington±0182% → 82%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugMonterey Bay2Lexington±0370% → 70%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulTulsa0Lexington▼ -7077% → 70%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulOakland0Lexington▲ +15262% → 77%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 JulNew Mexico4Lexington1Final · Away4 JulTampa Bay1Lexington4Final · Home13 JunSan Antonio0Lexington2Final · Away30 MayEl Paso1Lexington4Final · Away23 MayIndy3Lexington1Final · Home8 MayMonterey Bay1Lexington3Final · Away2 MayLas Vegas2Lexington1Final · Away18 AprOrange County0Lexington0Final · Home11 AprRhode Island3Lexington1Final · Away4 AprColorado Springs1Lexington1Final · Away29 MarSan Antonio2Lexington0Final · Home25 MarBrooklyn0Lexington3Final · Home14 MarSacramento0Lexington0Final · Home6 MarLouisville2Lexington1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-03-092026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal28%

Lexington 45+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
3LexingtonHome6Colorado Springs

Alongside it: 1 Orange County v 8 Phoenix · 2 New Mexico v 7 El Paso · 4 Sacramento v 5 San Antonio

  1. 86% of this route

  2. 14% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,869. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Orange County51
2New Mexico50
3Lexington49
4Sacramento49
5San Antonio44
6Colorado Springs43
7El Paso43
8Phoenix42
-Tulsa41
-Las Vegas38
Reach the quarterfinals on the road53%

Lexington 40+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
3SacramentoHome6Lexington

Alongside it: 1 New Mexico v 8 San Antonio · 2 Orange County v 7 Las Vegas · 4 Tulsa v 5 El Paso

  1. 83% of this route

  2. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,731. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1New Mexico62
2Orange County50
3Sacramento49
4Tulsa45
5El Paso44
6Lexington43
7Las Vegas43
8San Antonio42
-Phoenix41
-Colorado Springs36
Miss the postseason19%