Magic Number - Las Vegas Lights 2026

Playoffs58%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

9

Win the next 9 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away7:00 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 49%Draw 25%LV 26%Win → 79% · Draw → 62% · Loss → 52%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home15 AugBrooklyn1Las Vegas±0248% → 48%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Championship1%

7th in the table · 17th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 9th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:00 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 49%Draw 25%LV 26%Win → 79% · Draw → 62% · Loss → 52%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home10:30 PM EDTCharleston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 31%Draw 26%CHS 43%58% → 53% – 77%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 32%Draw 26%NM 42%58% → 53% – 77%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away10:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 54%Draw 24%LV 22%58% → 58% – 81%Playoffs

Full schedule10 to play

Saturday · Away7:00 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 49%Draw 25%LV 26%58% → 52% – 79%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Home10:30 PM EDTCharleston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 31%Draw 26%CHS 43%58% → 53% – 77%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 32%Draw 26%NM 42%58% → 53% – 77%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away10:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 54%Draw 24%LV 22%58% → 58% – 81%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTHartford83%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 41%Draw 26%HFD 33%58% → 54% – 77%Playoffs Wed 30 Sep · Away10:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 55%Draw 23%LV 22%58% → 58% – 81%Playoffs Sat 3 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTSan Antonio90%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 41%Draw 26%SA 33%58% → 52% – 78%Playoffs Sat 10 Oct · Away10:00 PM EDTPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultPHX 46%Draw 26%LV 28%58% → 54% – 80%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 42%Draw 26%LEX 32%58% → 50% – 81%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away10:00 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 33%Draw 26%LV 41%58% → 53% – 80%Playoffs

History

Final · Home15 AugBrooklyn1Las Vegas±0248% → 48%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugMiami0Las Vegas±0132% → 32%Playoffs Final · Home5 AugOakland0Las Vegas▲ +2038% → 40%Playoffs

All results20 played

Final · Home15 AugBrooklyn1Las Vegas±0248% → 48%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugMiami0Las Vegas±0132% → 32%Playoffs Final · Home5 AugOakland0Las Vegas▲ +2038% → 40%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugPhoenix1Las Vegas▼ -1142% → 41%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulDetroit0Las Vegas▲ +21130% → 51%Playoffs Final · Away18 JulSan Antonio1Las Vegas▲ +18212% → 30%Playoffs Final · Home4 JulEl Paso2Las Vegas1 Final · Home20 JunOrange County3Las Vegas2 Final · Away13 JunBirmingham1Las Vegas2 Final · Home30 MayTulsa0Las Vegas0 Final · Home23 MayColorado Springs0Las Vegas2 Final · Away9 MayNew Mexico3Las Vegas1 Final · Home2 MayLexington1Las Vegas2 Final · Away22 AprOakland4Las Vegas2 Final · Home11 AprSacramento1Las Vegas1 Final · Away4 AprEl Paso3Las Vegas2 Final · Home28 MarMonterey Bay0Las Vegas1 Final · Away21 MarTulsa3Las Vegas2 Final · Away14 MarColorado Springs3Las Vegas2 Final · Away7 MarOrange County1Las Vegas1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal9%

Las Vegas 45+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

4Las VegasHome5El Paso

Alongside it: 1 Orange County v 8 Tulsa · 2 New Mexico v 7 San Antonio · 3 Sacramento v 6 Lexington

86% of this route
- above San AntonioSan Antonio 1+ point back (99%)
14% of this route
- below San AntonioSan Antonio under 54 points (90%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,554. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Orange County	56
2	New Mexico	51
3	Sacramento	49
4	Las Vegas	48
5	El Paso	44
6	Lexington	43
7	San Antonio	43
8	Tulsa	41
-	Colorado Springs	39
-	Phoenix	35

Reach the quarterfinals on the road49%

Las Vegas 40+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

2New MexicoHome7Las Vegas

Alongside it: 1 Lexington v 8 Colorado Springs · 3 El Paso v 6 Orange County · 4 Tulsa v 5 Sacramento

56% of this route
- above Colorado SpringsColorado Springs under 45 points (91%)
44% of this route
- below Colorado SpringsColorado Springs under 51 points (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,452. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Lexington	53
2	New Mexico	51
3	El Paso	51
4	Tulsa	49
5	Sacramento	47
6	Orange County	44
7	Las Vegas	43
8	Colorado Springs	40
-	Phoenix	37
-	San Antonio	37

Miss the postseason42%

Las Vegas under 42 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,412. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	New Mexico	59
2	San Antonio	48
3	El Paso	47
4	Orange County	46
5	Lexington	45
6	Colorado Springs	44
7	Tulsa	43
8	Sacramento	42
-	Las Vegas	38
-	Phoenix	35