Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
17th by playoff odds25 clubs

Las Vegas

9th · 10-6-11 · 36 pts
Playoffs30%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
3

Lose the next 3 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 17 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away10:00 PM EDTLas Vegas30%PlayoffsPhoenix9%PlayoffsMatch resultPHX 48%Draw 25%LV 27%Win → 64% · Draw → 33% · Loss → 16%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home3 OctSan Antonio0Las Vegas▲ +16111% → 27%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut
Championship<1%

9th in the table · 17th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 9th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away10:00 PM EDTLas Vegas30%PlayoffsPhoenix9%PlayoffsMatch resultPHX 48%Draw 25%LV 27%Win → 64% · Draw → 33% · Loss → 16%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTLexington>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 38%Draw 27%LEX 35%30% → 17% – 61%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away10:00 PM EDTMonterey BayOutPlayoffsMatch resultMB 34%Draw 27%LV 39%30% → 20% – 66%Playoffs

History

Final · Home3 OctSan Antonio0Las Vegas▲ +16111% → 27%PlayoffsFinal · Away30 SepSacramento3Las Vegas▼ -8220% → 12%PlayoffsFinal · Home19 SepHartford1Las Vegas▼ -3127% → 24%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Home3 OctSan Antonio0Las Vegas▲ +16111% → 27%PlayoffsFinal · Away30 SepSacramento3Las Vegas▼ -8220% → 12%PlayoffsFinal · Home19 SepHartford1Las Vegas▼ -3127% → 24%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepOrange County0Las Vegas▲ +9218% → 27%PlayoffsFinal · Home5 SepNew Mexico2Las Vegas±0128% → 28%PlayoffsFinal · Home29 AugCharleston2Las Vegas±0046% → 46%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 AugLexington2Las Vegas▼ -13058% → 45%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugBrooklyn1Las Vegas±0248% → 48%PlayoffsFinal · Away8 AugMiami0Las Vegas±0132% → 32%PlayoffsFinal · Home5 AugOakland0Las Vegas▲ +2038% → 40%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugPhoenix1Las Vegas▼ -1142% → 41%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulDetroit0Las Vegas▲ +21130% → 51%PlayoffsFinal · Away18 JulSan Antonio1Las Vegas▲ +18212% → 30%PlayoffsFinal · Home4 JulEl Paso2Las Vegas1Final · Home20 JunOrange County3Las Vegas2Final · Away13 JunBirmingham1Las Vegas2Final · Home30 MayTulsa0Las Vegas0Final · Home23 MayColorado Springs0Las Vegas2Final · Away9 MayNew Mexico3Las Vegas1Final · Home2 MayLexington1Las Vegas2Final · Away22 AprOakland4Las Vegas2Final · Home11 AprSacramento1Las Vegas1Final · Away4 AprEl Paso3Las Vegas2Final · Home28 MarMonterey Bay0Las Vegas1Final · Away21 MarTulsa3Las Vegas2Final · Away14 MarColorado Springs3Las Vegas2Final · Away7 MarOrange County1Las Vegas1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 12 Sep: 18% to 37%2026-03-092026-10-05

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal<1%

A possible long-shot route: 13 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Las Vegas 45+ points

Reach the quarterfinals on the road30%

Las Vegas 40+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
1El PasoHome8Las Vegas

Alongside it: 2 Lexington v 7 Tulsa · 3 New Mexico v 6 Orange County · 4 Sacramento v 5 Colorado Springs

  1. 54% of this route

  2. 31% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,241. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1El Paso54
2Lexington49
3New Mexico48
4Sacramento47
5Colorado Springs47
6Orange County44
7Tulsa43
8Las Vegas42
-Oakland40
-San Antonio40
Miss the postseason70%