Magic Number - Phoenix Rising 2026

Playoffs9%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

2

Lose the next 2 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 17 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home10:00 PM EDTPhoenix9%PlayoffsLas Vegas30%PlayoffsMatch resultPHX 48%Draw 25%LV 27%Win → 17% · Draw → 3% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away4 OctNew Mexico2Phoenix▼ -8117% → 9%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Championship<1%

11th in the table · 19th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 11th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

All results27 played

Final · Away4 OctNew Mexico2Phoenix▼ -8117% → 9%Playoffs Final · Away26 SepOakland3Phoenix▼ -22033% → 11%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepEl Paso3Phoenix▼ -19153% → 34%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepTulsa1Phoenix▲ +9244% → 53%Playoffs Final · Away5 SepMonterey Bay1Phoenix±0149% → 49%Playoffs Final · Home29 AugIndy1Phoenix±0236% → 36%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugSacramento2Phoenix▲ +1237% → 38%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugColorado Springs1Phoenix±0323% → 23%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugLexington1Phoenix±0043% → 43%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugLas Vegas1Phoenix▼ -3143% → 40%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulHartford0Phoenix▼ -18057% → 39%Playoffs Final · Home18 JulMonterey Bay2Phoenix▲ +6353% → 59%Playoffs Final · Away4 JulColorado Springs3Phoenix1 Final · Home20 JunOakland4Phoenix3 Final · Away13 JunEl Paso1Phoenix1 Final · Home10 JunLouisville2Phoenix0 Final · Home30 MaySacramento0Phoenix2 Final · Away23 MayTampa Bay3Phoenix0 Final · Home9 MaySan Antonio1Phoenix1 Final · Away2 MayPittsburgh0Phoenix1 Final · Away18 AprMiami0Phoenix3 Final · Home11 AprNew Mexico0Phoenix3 Final · Away4 AprSacramento2Phoenix0 Final · Away28 MarTulsa1Phoenix1 Final · Home21 MarOakland2Phoenix2 Final · Home14 MarOrange County1Phoenix1 Final · Away7 MarSan Antonio2Phoenix1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinalNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach the quarterfinals on the road9%

Phoenix 39+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

1SacramentoHome8Phoenix

Alongside it: 2 El Paso v 7 Orange County · 3 New Mexico v 6 Colorado Springs · 4 Tulsa v 5 Lexington

66% of this route
- above San AntonioSan Antonio under 43 points (>99%)
34% of this route
- below San AntonioSan Antonio under 48 points (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,124. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Sacramento	53
2	El Paso	53
3	New Mexico	52
4	Tulsa	49
5	Lexington	45
6	Colorado Springs	42
7	Orange County	40
8	Phoenix	40
-	San Antonio	40
-	Las Vegas	38

Miss the postseason91%

Phoenix under 40 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 18,287. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Sacramento	51
2	El Paso	51
3	New Mexico	50
4	Lexington	45
5	San Antonio	45
6	Tulsa	45
7	Orange County	42
8	Colorado Springs	41
-	Las Vegas	41
-	Phoenix	37

Phoenix

Chances

Schedule

Next up

Upcoming

History

Season so far

Paths