MLB · 2026

14th by playoff odds30 clubs

Arizona

3rd · 86-75

Playoffs20%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

1

Lose the next game and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sun 27 Sep.

Next upSun 27 Sep · Away · Their biggest game left3:10 PM EDTArizona20%PlayoffsSan DiegoClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultSD 57%ARI 43%Win → 51% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away27 SepSan Diego9Arizona4

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

DivisionOut

ByeOut

Pennant1%

World Series<1%

3rd in the table · 14th by playoff odds.

NL West finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

National League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 7th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sun 27 Sep · Away · Their biggest game left3:10 PM EDTArizona20%PlayoffsSan DiegoClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultSD 57%ARI 43%Win → 51% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

History

Final · Away27 SepSan Diego9Arizona4 Final · Away26 SepSan Diego10Arizona▼ -4725% → 21%Playoffs Final · Away25 SepSan Diego4Arizona±01113% → 13%Playoffs

All results162 played

Final · Away27 SepSan Diego9Arizona4 Final · Away26 SepSan Diego10Arizona▼ -4725% → 21%Playoffs Final · Away25 SepSan Diego4Arizona±01113% → 13%Playoffs Final · Away24 SepColorado8Arizona±0125% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away23 SepColorado3Arizona±055% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away22 SepColorado2Arizona±073% → 3%Playoffs Final · Home20 SepYankees4Arizona±084% → 4%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepYankees3Arizona▲ +153% → 4%Playoffs Final · Home18 SepYankees9Arizona±027% → 7%Playoffs Final · Home16 SepMiami4Arizona±0319% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home15 SepMiami4Arizona±0225% → 25%Playoffs Final · Home14 SepMiami7Arizona▲ +2820% → 22%Playoffs Final · Home13 SepTexas7Arizona▼ -11635% → 24%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepTexas6Arizona▼ -8243% → 35%Playoffs Final · Home11 SepTexas1Arizona▲ +3944% → 47%Playoffs Final · Away9 SepKansas City5Arizona±0253% → 53%Playoffs Final · Away8 SepKansas City3Arizona±0553% → 53%Playoffs Final · Away7 SepKansas City4Arizona±0549% → 49%Playoffs Final · Away6 SepHouston2Arizona▲ +2347% → 49%Playoffs Final · Away5 SepHouston3Arizona▲ +13435% → 48%Playoffs Final · Away4 SepHouston3Arizona±0147% → 47%Playoffs Final · Home2 SepPhiladelphia0Arizona±0140% → 40%Playoffs Final · Home1 SepPhiladelphia7Arizona±0141% → 41%Playoffs Final · Home31 AugPhiladelphia2Arizona±0143% → 43%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugSan Francisco7Arizona±0254% → 54%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugSan Francisco1Arizona±0744% → 44%Playoffs Final · Away28 AugSan Francisco6Arizona▲ +11038% → 39%Playoffs Final · Away27 AugSan Francisco6Arizona±0142% → 42%Playoffs Final · Home26 AugCubs0Arizona±0241% → 41%Playoffs Final · Home25 AugCubs4Arizona±0528% → 28%Playoffs Final · Home24 AugCubs7Arizona±0030% → 30%Playoffs Final · Home23 AugCincinnati3Arizona±0528% → 28%Playoffs Final · Home22 AugCincinnati11Arizona±0539% → 39%Playoffs Final · Home21 AugCincinnati0Arizona±0937% → 37%Playoffs Final · Away19 AugBoston6Arizona±0732% → 32%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugBoston9Arizona▼ -10439% → 29%Playoffs Final · Away17 AugBoston11Arizona▼ -4143% → 39%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugAtlanta5Arizona±0356% → 56%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugAtlanta3Arizona±01049% → 49%Playoffs Final · Away14 AugAtlanta0Arizona±0242% → 42%Playoffs Final · Home12 AugColorado6Arizona▼ -2455% → 53%Playoffs Final · Home11 AugColorado3Arizona▼ -2263% → 61%Playoffs Final · Home10 AugColorado0Arizona▲ +4958% → 62%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugDodgers2Arizona▲ +2457% → 59%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugDodgers2Arizona±0165% → 65%Playoffs Final · Home7 AugDodgers3Arizona▼ -3456% → 53%Playoffs Final · Home6 AugSan Diego5Arizona▼ -1163% → 62%Playoffs Final · Home5 AugSan Diego4Arizona▼ -21054% → 52%Playoffs Final · Home4 AugSan Diego9Arizona±0461% → 61%Playoffs Final · Home3 AugSan Diego1Arizona±0552% → 52%Playoffs Final · Away2 AugCleveland5Arizona▲ +1064% → 65%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugCleveland8Arizona▲ +11259% → 60%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulCleveland1Arizona▲ +1454% → 55%Playoffs Final · Away29 JulPittsburgh0Arizona▲ +9342% → 51%Playoffs Final · Away28 JulPittsburgh7Arizona▲ +1834% → 35%Playoffs Final · Away27 JulPittsburgh3Arizona▲ +1240% → 41%Playoffs Final · Away26 JulWashington10Arizona±0749% → 49%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulWashington5Arizona▼ -7356% → 49%Playoffs Final · Away24 JulWashington2Arizona±0348% → 48%Playoffs Final · Away23 JulSt. Louis6Arizona10 Final · Home22 JulAthletics5Arizona▲ +51534% → 39%Playoffs Final · Home21 JulAthletics5Arizona±0627% → 27%Playoffs Final · Home20 JulAthletics5Arizona2 Final · Home19 JulSt. Louis7Arizona8 Final · Home18 JulSt. Louis3Arizona5 Final · Home17 JulSt. Louis5Arizona4 Final · Away12 JulDodgers3Arizona5 Final · Away11 JulDodgers2Arizona9 Final · Away10 JulDodgers3Arizona9 Final · Away9 JulSan Diego1Arizona3 Final · Away8 JulSan Diego10Arizona4 Final · Away7 JulSan Diego4Arizona1 Final · Away6 JulSan Diego0Arizona8 Final · Home5 JulMilwaukee3Arizona2 Final · Home4 JulMilwaukee3Arizona4 Final · Home3 JulMilwaukee7Arizona4 Final · Home1 JulSan Francisco6Arizona4 Final · Home30 JunSan Francisco2Arizona8 Final · Home29 JunSan Francisco4Arizona5 Final · Away28 JunTampa Bay5Arizona1 Final · Away27 JunTampa Bay4Arizona2 Final · Away26 JunTampa Bay6Arizona1 Final · Away24 JunSt. Louis4Arizona9 Final · Away23 JunSt. Louis3Arizona4 Final · Away22 JunSt. Louis3Arizona2 Final · Home21 JunMinnesota4Arizona2 Final · Home20 JunMinnesota16Arizona8 Final · Home19 JunMinnesota5Arizona9 Final · Home17 JunAngels1Arizona8 Final · Home16 JunAngels7Arizona0 Final · Home15 JunAngels3Arizona4 Final · Away14 JunCincinnati3Arizona5 Final · Away13 JunCincinnati2Arizona1 Final · Away12 JunCincinnati2Arizona5 Final · Away11 JunMiami2Arizona0 Final · Away10 JunMiami8Arizona0 Final · Away9 JunMiami10Arizona6 Final · Home7 JunWashington1Arizona5 Final · Home6 JunWashington6Arizona1 Final · Home5 JunWashington14Arizona1 Final · Home4 JunDodgers2Arizona3 Final · Home3 JunDodgers7Arizona0 Final · Home2 JunDodgers6Arizona5 Final · Home1 JunDodgers1Arizona4 Final · Away31 MaySeattle3Arizona2 Final · Away30 MaySeattle5Arizona1 Final · Away29 MaySeattle7Arizona6 Final · Away27 MaySan Francisco2Arizona3 Final · Away26 MaySan Francisco5Arizona7 Final · Away25 MaySan Francisco2Arizona6 Final · Home24 MayColorado1Arizona9 Final · Home23 MayColorado4Arizona5 Final · Home22 MayColorado3Arizona2 Final · Home21 MayColorado1Arizona2 Final · Home20 MaySan Francisco3Arizona6 Final · Home19 MaySan Francisco3Arizona5 Final · Home18 MaySan Francisco2Arizona12 Final · Away17 MayColorado6Arizona8 Final · Away16 MayColorado4Arizona2 Final · Away15 MayColorado1Arizona9 Final · Away13 MayTexas6Arizona5 Final · Away12 MayTexas7Arizona4 Final · Away11 MayTexas0Arizona1 Final · Home10 MayMets1Arizona5 Final · Home9 MayMets1Arizona2 Final · Home8 MayMets3Arizona1 Final · Home7 MayPittsburgh4Arizona2 Final · Home6 MayPittsburgh1Arizona0 Final · Home5 MayPittsburgh0Arizona9 Final · Away3 MayCubs8Arizona4 Final · Away2 MayCubs2Arizona0 Final · Away1 MayCubs6Arizona5 Final · Away30 AprMilwaukee13Arizona1 Final · Away29 AprMilwaukee2Arizona6 Final · Away28 AprMilwaukee13Arizona2 Final · Home26 AprSan Diego7Arizona12 Final · Home25 AprSan Diego6Arizona4 Final · Home23 AprWhite Sox4Arizona1 Final · Home22 AprWhite Sox7Arizona11 Final · Home21 AprWhite Sox11Arizona5 Final · Home19 AprToronto10Arizona4 Final · Home18 AprToronto2Arizona6 Final · Home17 AprToronto3Arizona6 Final · Away15 AprBaltimore5Arizona8 Final · Away14 AprBaltimore3Arizona4 Final · Away13 AprBaltimore9Arizona7 Final · Away12 AprPhiladelphia3Arizona4 Final · Away11 AprPhiladelphia4Arizona3 Final · Away10 AprPhiladelphia4Arizona5 Final · Away9 AprMets1Arizona7 Final · Away8 AprMets2Arizona7 Final · Away7 AprMets4Arizona3 Final · Home5 AprAtlanta5Arizona6 Final · Home4 AprAtlanta1Arizona2 Final · Home3 AprAtlanta2Arizona0 Final · Home2 AprAtlanta17Arizona2 Final · Home1 AprDetroit0Arizona1 Final · Home31 MarDetroit5Arizona7 Final · Home30 MarDetroit6Arizona9 Final · Away28 MarDodgers3Arizona2 Final · Away27 MarDodgers5Arizona4 Final · Away26 MarDodgers8Arizona2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round byeNo path

No path remains: mathematically eliminated from the sub-unit title.

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo path

No path remains: mathematically eliminated from the sub-unit title.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, on the road20%

Arizona 87+ wins

Wild Card Series

3AtlantaHome6Arizona

Alongside it: 4 San Diego v 5 Cubs

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,086. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Milwaukee	103	59
2	Dodgers	100	62
3	Atlanta	94	68
4	San Diego	90	72
5	Cubs	89	73
6	Arizona	87	75
-	Philadelphia	87	75
-	Pittsburgh	81	81

Miss the postseason80%

Arizona under 88 wins

How the table finishedthe middle season

The National League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 15,914. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Milwaukee	103	59
2	Dodgers	100	62
3	Atlanta	95	67
4	San Diego	91	71
5	Cubs	88	74
6	Philadelphia	88	74
-	Arizona	86	76
-	Pittsburgh	82	80