Magic Number - Chattanooga Red Wolves 2026

Playoffs95%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

10

Win the next 10 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home7:00 PM EDTChattanooga95%PlayoffsNY Cosmos<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 59%Draw 23%COS 18%Win → 99% · Draw → 94% · Loss → 90%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugSarasota3Chattanooga▼ -2297% → 95%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Title1%

Championship7%

8th in the table · 5th by playoff odds.

Where they finish

1st8th · playoff line17th

Most likely 5th. The top 8 make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:00 PM EDTChattanooga95%PlayoffsNY Cosmos<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 59%Draw 23%COS 18%Win → 99% · Draw → 94% · Loss → 90%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home7:00 PM EDTBoise86%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 47%Draw 27%BOI 26%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTWestchester2%PlayoffsMatch resultWSC 31%Draw 28%CHA 41%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTGreenville1%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 56%Draw 24%GVL 20%95% → 89% – 97%Playoffs

Full schedule13 to play

Saturday · Home7:00 PM EDTNY Cosmos<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 59%Draw 23%COS 18%95% → 90% – 99%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Home7:00 PM EDTBoise86%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 47%Draw 27%BOI 26%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTWestchester2%PlayoffsMatch resultWSC 31%Draw 28%CHA 41%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTGreenville1%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 56%Draw 24%GVL 20%95% → 89% – 97%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away6:00 PM EDTRichmond<1%PlayoffsMatch resultRVA 28%Draw 27%CHA 45%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Wed 16 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTMadison>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 43%Draw 27%MAD 30%95% → 91% – 97%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTPortland3%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 53%Draw 25%PHP 22%95% → 91% – 97%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTNaples2%PlayoffsMatch resultNAP 33%Draw 28%CHA 39%95% → 93% – 98%Playoffs Wed 30 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTSpokane91%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 45%Draw 27%SPO 28%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs Sat 3 Oct · Home3:00 PM EDTCorpus Christi38%PlayoffsMatch resultCHA 49%Draw 26%CC 25%95% → 91% – 98%Playoffs Wed 7 Oct · Away7:00 PM EDTKnoxville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 50%Draw 26%CHA 24%95% → 94% – 99%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away9:00 PM EDTSpokane91%PlayoffsMatch resultSPO 43%Draw 27%CHA 30%95% → 93% – 99%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away4:00 PM EDTNY Cosmos<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOS 31%Draw 28%CHA 41%95% → 92% – 98%Playoffs

History

Final · Away19 AugSarasota3Chattanooga▼ -2297% → 95%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugFort Wayne1Chattanooga±0289% → 89%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugOmaha3Chattanooga±0193% → 93%Playoffs

All results19 played

Final · Away19 AugSarasota3Chattanooga▼ -2297% → 95%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugFort Wayne1Chattanooga±0289% → 89%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugOmaha3Chattanooga±0193% → 93%Playoffs Final · Away29 JulMadison5Chattanooga▲ +1295% → 96%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulKnoxville0Chattanooga▲ +3191% → 94%Playoffs Final · Away18 JulCharlotte2Chattanooga▲ +7483% → 90%Playoffs Final · Home15 JulAlta0Chattanooga1 Final · Away4 JulCorpus Christi2Chattanooga1 Final · Home1 JulWestchester0Chattanooga2 Final · Home20 JunNaples0Chattanooga1 Final · Away13 JunPortland1Chattanooga2 Final · Home30 MayCharlotte3Chattanooga2 Final · Home27 MayRichmond0Chattanooga5 Final · Away23 MayOmaha2Chattanooga0 Final · Home9 MaySarasota1Chattanooga4 Final · Away2 MayBoise2Chattanooga1 Final · Home11 AprFort Wayne1Chattanooga0 Final · Away28 MarAlta2Chattanooga2 Final · Away14 MarGreenville1Chattanooga2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a quarterfinal29%

Quarterfinals

4ChattanoogaHome5Knoxville

Alongside it: 1 Omaha v 8 Corpus Christi · 2 Madison v 7 Boise · 3 Charlotte v 6 Spokane

41% of this route
- Chattanooga 52+ points
- above KnoxvilleKnoxville under 57 points (93%)
- below MadisonMadison under 66 points (92%)
35% of this route
- Chattanooga 55+ points
- above KnoxvilleKnoxville under 59 points (93%)
- above MadisonMadison under 60 points (94%)
24% of this route
- Chattanooga 53+ points
- below KnoxvilleKnoxville under 64 points (91%)
- above MadisonMadison under 60 points (90%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,387. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Omaha	66
2	Madison	61
3	Charlotte	60
4	Chattanooga	56
5	Knoxville	52
6	Spokane	50
7	Boise	48
8	Corpus Christi	46
-	Alta	44
-	Greenville	39

Reach the quarterfinals on the road66%

Chattanooga 46+ points

Quarterfinals

4KnoxvilleHome5Chattanooga

Alongside it: 1 Charlotte v 8 Fort Wayne · 2 Omaha v 7 Boise · 3 Madison v 6 Spokane

How the table finishedthe middle season

The table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 13,139. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Charlotte	68
2	Omaha	60
3	Madison	58
4	Knoxville	57
5	Chattanooga	50
6	Spokane	47
7	Boise	45
8	Fort Wayne	45
-	Corpus Christi	45
-	NY Cosmos	41

Miss the postseason5%

Chattanooga under 48 points

61% of this route
- below Corpus ChristiCorpus Christi under 52 points (94%)
- below Fort WayneFort Wayne under 52 points (93%)
20% of this route
- below Corpus ChristiCorpus Christi under 52 points (93%)
- above Fort WayneFort Wayne 1+ point back (>99%)
19% of this route
- above Corpus ChristiCorpus Christi 1+ point back (>99%)
- below Fort WayneFort Wayne under 52 points (90%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 647. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Knoxville	65
2	Omaha	62
3	Charlotte	62
4	Boise	55
5	Madison	53
6	Spokane	46
7	Fort Wayne	46
8	Corpus Christi	46
-	Chattanooga	43
-	Alta	41