Magic Number - Sarasota Paradise 2026

Playoffs2%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

8

Lose the next 8 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away7:00 PM EDTSarasota2%PlayoffsOmaha>99%PlayoffsMatch resultOMA 66%Draw 20%SAR 14%Win → 6% · Draw → 1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugChattanooga2Sarasota▲ +23<1% → 2%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Title<1%

Championship<1%

13th in the table · 13th by playoff odds.

Where they finish

1st8th · playoff line17th

Most likely 13th. The top 8 make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:00 PM EDTSarasota2%PlayoffsOmaha>99%PlayoffsMatch resultOMA 66%Draw 20%SAR 14%Win → 6% · Draw → 1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wed 2 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTNY Cosmos<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOS 41%Draw 28%SAR 31%2% → <1% – 4%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTSpokane91%PlayoffsMatch resultSAR 35%Draw 28%SPO 37%2% → <1% – 3%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away6:00 PM EDTMadison>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMAD 58%Draw 23%SAR 19%2% → 1% – 5%Playoffs

Full schedule11 to play

Saturday · Away7:00 PM EDTOmaha>99%PlayoffsMatch resultOMA 66%Draw 20%SAR 14%2% → 0% – 6%Playoffs Wed 2 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTNY Cosmos<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOS 41%Draw 28%SAR 31%2% → <1% – 4%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTSpokane91%PlayoffsMatch resultSAR 35%Draw 28%SPO 37%2% → <1% – 3%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away6:00 PM EDTMadison>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMAD 58%Draw 23%SAR 19%2% → 1% – 5%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTGreenville1%PlayoffsMatch resultSAR 45%Draw 27%GVL 28%2% → <1% – 2%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Away5:00 PM EDTPortland3%PlayoffsMatch resultPHP 46%Draw 27%SAR 27%2% → <1% – 3%Playoffs Sat 3 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSAR 31%Draw 28%CLT 41%2% → <1% – 3%Playoffs Sat 10 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTRichmond<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSAR 52%Draw 25%RVA 23%2% → <1% – 2%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTFort Wayne41%PlayoffsMatch resultFW 49%Draw 26%SAR 25%2% → <1% – 3%Playoffs Wed 21 Oct · Home6:30 PM EDTNaples2%PlayoffsMatch resultSAR 45%Draw 27%NAP 28%2% → <1% – 2%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTWestchester2%PlayoffsMatch resultSAR 48%Draw 26%WSC 26%2% → 0% – 2%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugChattanooga2Sarasota▲ +23<1% → 2%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugCharlotte3Sarasota±011% → 1%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugKnoxville2Sarasota±012% → 2%Playoffs

All results21 played

Final · Home19 AugChattanooga2Sarasota▲ +23<1% → 2%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugCharlotte3Sarasota±011% → 1%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugKnoxville2Sarasota±012% → 2%Playoffs Final · Away8 JulGreenville0Sarasota0 Final · Away3 JulRichmond0Sarasota0 Final · Away20 JunCorpus Christi4Sarasota1 Final · Home13 JunOmaha0Sarasota2 Final · Away10 JunAlta3Sarasota1 Final · Home30 MayNY Cosmos1Sarasota2 Final · Away27 MayBoise0Sarasota2 Final · Away24 MaySpokane1Sarasota0 Final · Home16 MayAlta2Sarasota1 Final · Away9 MayChattanooga4Sarasota1 Final · Home2 MayMadison3Sarasota1 Final · Home22 AprCorpus Christi1Sarasota2 Final · Away11 AprNaples2Sarasota0 Final · Away8 AprWestchester2Sarasota0 Final · Home4 AprKnoxville2Sarasota1 Final · Home28 MarPortland0Sarasota1 Final · Home14 MarFort Wayne2Sarasota2 Final · Home7 MarBoise1Sarasota0

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a quarterfinalNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach the quarterfinals on the road2%

Sarasota 42+ points

Quarterfinals

1MadisonHome8Sarasota

Alongside it: 2 Charlotte v 7 Boise · 3 Omaha v 6 Chattanooga · 4 Knoxville v 5 Spokane

How the table finishedthe middle season

The table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 332. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Madison	66
2	Charlotte	63
3	Omaha	63
4	Knoxville	55
5	Spokane	50
6	Chattanooga	46
7	Boise	46
8	Sarasota	45
-	Alta	43
-	Fort Wayne	41

Miss the postseason98%

Sarasota under 41 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 19,668. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Charlotte	70
2	Madison	62
3	Omaha	60
4	Chattanooga	52
5	Boise	52
6	Knoxville	49
7	Spokane	44
8	Greenville	43
-	Corpus Christi	43
-	Fort Wayne	40
-	Sarasota	35