Magic Number.
USL League One · 2026
4th by playoff odds17 clubs

Knoxville

4th · 11-5-5 · 38 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
8

Win the next 8 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTKnoxville>99%PlayoffsBoise86%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 53%Draw 25%BOI 22%Win → 4% · Draw → 2% · Loss → 1%Title
Last resultFinal · Home19 AugPortland1Knoxville±01>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Title3%
Championship14%

4th in the table · 4th by playoff odds.

Where they finish
1st8th · playoff line17th

Most likely 4th. The top 8 make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTKnoxville>99%PlayoffsBoise86%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 53%Draw 25%BOI 22%Win → 4% · Draw → 2% · Loss → 1%Title

Upcoming

Wed 2 Sep · Away8:00 PM EDTMadison>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMAD 41%Draw 28%KNX 31%3% → 1% – 6%TitleSat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTAlta40%PlayoffsMatch resultALT 33%Draw 28%KNX 39%3% → 2% – 7%TitleFri 11 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTNaples2%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 61%Draw 22%NAP 17%3% → 1% – 6%Title
Full schedule11 to play
Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTBoise86%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 53%Draw 25%BOI 22%3% → 1% – 4%TitleWed 2 Sep · Away8:00 PM EDTMadison>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMAD 41%Draw 28%KNX 31%3% → 1% – 6%TitleSat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTAlta40%PlayoffsMatch resultALT 33%Draw 28%KNX 39%3% → 2% – 7%TitleFri 11 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTNaples2%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 61%Draw 22%NAP 17%3% → 1% – 6%TitleWed 16 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTFort Wayne41%PlayoffsMatch resultFW 34%Draw 28%KNX 38%3% → 1% – 5%TitleSat 19 Sep · Away8:00 PM EDTOmaha>99%PlayoffsMatch resultOMA 50%Draw 26%KNX 24%3% → 1% – 7%TitleSun 27 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTWestchester2%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 64%Draw 21%WSC 15%3% → 1% – 4%TitleSat 3 Oct · Away6:00 PM EDTRichmond<1%PlayoffsMatch resultRVA 24%Draw 26%KNX 50%3% → 1% – 4%TitleWed 7 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTChattanooga95%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 50%Draw 26%CHA 24%3% → 1% – 4%TitleSun 11 Oct · Home3:00 PM EDTSpokane91%PlayoffsMatch resultKNX 51%Draw 26%SPO 23%3% → 2% – 4%TitleSat 17 Oct · Away4:00 PM EDTNY Cosmos<1%PlayoffsMatch resultCOS 27%Draw 27%KNX 46%3% → 2% – 4%Title

History

Final · Home19 AugPortland1Knoxville±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugGreenville1Knoxville±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugSarasota1Knoxville±0299% → 99%Playoffs
All results21 played
Final · Home19 AugPortland1Knoxville±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugGreenville1Knoxville±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugSarasota1Knoxville±0299% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugCharlotte3Knoxville±0199% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulChattanooga1Knoxville▼ -10>99% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home18 JulAlta3Knoxville±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 JulFort Wayne1Knoxville2Final · Away2 JulBoise1Knoxville2Final · Away20 JunSpokane0Knoxville4Final · Home13 JunNY Cosmos1Knoxville3Final · Home29 MayGreenville0Knoxville2Final · Away23 MayCorpus Christi2Knoxville2Final · Home13 MayOmaha2Knoxville1Final · Away2 MayNaples0Knoxville3Final · Home18 AprCharlotte1Knoxville2Final · Away11 AprPortland0Knoxville0Final · Away4 AprSarasota1Knoxville2Final · Home27 MarRichmond0Knoxville1Final · Home24 MarCorpus Christi0Knoxville0Final · Home14 MarMadison2Knoxville1Final · Away7 MarWestchester2Knoxville3

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 25 Jul: &gt;99% to &gt;99%2026-03-092026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a quarterfinal67%

Knoxville 53+ points

Quarterfinals
3KnoxvilleHome6Spokane

Alongside it: 1 Charlotte v 8 Alta · 2 Omaha v 7 Fort Wayne · 4 Madison v 5 Chattanooga

  1. 52% of this route

  2. 48% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,903. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Charlotte68
2Omaha66
3Knoxville59
4Madison55
5Chattanooga52
6Spokane52
7Fort Wayne45
8Alta43
-Boise42
-Portland41
Reach the quarterfinals on the road33%

Knoxville 48+ points

Quarterfinals
4CharlotteHome5Knoxville

Alongside it: 1 Omaha v 8 Sarasota · 2 Madison v 7 Boise · 3 Chattanooga v 6 Spokane

  1. 69% of this route

  2. 31% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,496. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Omaha64
2Madison59
3Chattanooga56
4Charlotte56
5Knoxville52
6Spokane46
7Boise45
8Sarasota44
-Alta40
-Corpus Christi40
Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 95 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Knoxville under 48 points