Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
7th by playoff odds25 clubs

Lexington

4th · 13-4-10 · 43 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
1

Win the next game and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as tomorrow.

Next upTomorrow · Home7:30 PM EDTLexington>99%PlayoffsTulsa>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 39%Draw 27%TUL 34%Win → 5% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Conference
Last resultFinal · Home3 OctEl Paso1Lexington▲ +3397% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference2%
Championship3%

4th in the table · 7th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 4th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tomorrow · Home7:30 PM EDTLexington>99%PlayoffsTulsa>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLEX 39%Draw 27%TUL 34%Win → 5% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Conference

Upcoming

Sat 17 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTLas Vegas30%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 38%Draw 27%LEX 35%2% → <1% – 6%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Away10:00 PM EDTPhoenix9%PlayoffsMatch resultPHX 41%Draw 26%LEX 33%2% → 0% – 8%Conference

History

Final · Home3 OctEl Paso1Lexington▲ +3397% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away26 SepMonterey Bay2Lexington▲ +8388% → 96%PlayoffsFinal · Home19 SepOrange County0Lexington▲ +21667% → 88%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Home3 OctEl Paso1Lexington▲ +3397% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away26 SepMonterey Bay2Lexington▲ +8388% → 96%PlayoffsFinal · Home19 SepOrange County0Lexington▲ +21667% → 88%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepOakland1Lexington▲ +11455% → 66%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 SepJacksonville3Lexington▼ -16267% → 51%PlayoffsFinal · Home29 AugColorado Springs1Lexington±0087% → 87%PlayoffsFinal · Away26 AugNew Mexico2Lexington±0191% → 91%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 AugLas Vegas0Lexington▲ +10281% → 91%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugSacramento1Lexington▼ -9090% → 81%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugPhoenix0Lexington±0182% → 82%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugMonterey Bay2Lexington±0370% → 70%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulTulsa0Lexington▼ -7077% → 70%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulOakland0Lexington▲ +15262% → 77%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 JulNew Mexico4Lexington1Final · Away4 JulTampa Bay1Lexington4Final · Home13 JunSan Antonio0Lexington2Final · Away30 MayEl Paso1Lexington4Final · Away23 MayIndy3Lexington1Final · Home8 MayMonterey Bay1Lexington3Final · Away2 MayLas Vegas2Lexington1Final · Away18 AprOrange County0Lexington0Final · Home11 AprRhode Island3Lexington1Final · Away4 AprColorado Springs1Lexington1Final · Away29 MarSan Antonio2Lexington0Final · Home25 MarBrooklyn0Lexington3Final · Home14 MarSacramento0Lexington0Final · Home6 MarLouisville2Lexington1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-03-092026-10-05

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal61%

Lexington 46+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
3LexingtonHome6Colorado Springs

Alongside it: 1 El Paso v 8 San Antonio · 2 Sacramento v 7 Orange County · 4 New Mexico v 5 Tulsa

  1. 52% of this route

  2. 48% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,311. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1El Paso54
2Sacramento50
3Lexington48
4New Mexico47
5Tulsa45
6Colorado Springs44
7Orange County41
8San Antonio41
-Las Vegas40
-Phoenix38
Reach the quarterfinals on the road39%

Lexington 43+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
4TulsaHome5Lexington

Alongside it: 1 El Paso v 8 Colorado Springs · 2 New Mexico v 7 San Antonio · 3 Sacramento v 6 Orange County

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,746. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1El Paso54
2New Mexico52
3Sacramento49
4Tulsa48
5Lexington45
6Orange County42
7San Antonio42
8Colorado Springs42
-Oakland38
-Las Vegas37
Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 5 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Lexington under 44 points