Magic Number - Sacramento Republic 2026

Playoffs95%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

9

Win the next 9 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home11:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 53%Draw 24%PHX 23%Win → >99% · Draw → 96% · Loss → 92%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home15 AugLexington0Sacramento▲ +3192% → 95%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference6%

Championship6%

5th in the table · 8th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 3rd. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home11:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 53%Draw 24%PHX 23%Win → >99% · Draw → 96% · Loss → 92%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Away10:00 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 25%Draw 25%SAC 50%95% → 92% – 99%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away10:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 45%Draw 26%SAC 29%6% → 5% – 13%Conference Sat 12 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTDetroit>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 48%Draw 25%DET 27%6% → 5% – 13%Conference

Full schedule11 to play

Saturday · Home11:00 PM EDTPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 53%Draw 24%PHX 23%95% → 92% – >99%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Away10:00 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMB 25%Draw 25%SAC 50%95% → 92% – 99%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away10:00 PM EDTOrange County99%PlayoffsMatch resultOC 45%Draw 26%SAC 29%6% → 5% – 13%Conference Sat 12 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTDetroit>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 48%Draw 25%DET 27%6% → 5% – 13%Conference Sun 20 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTSan Antonio90%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 50%Draw 25%SA 25%6% → 4% – 12%Conference Sat 26 Sep · Away9:00 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 49%Draw 25%SAC 26%6% → 4% – 19%Conference Wed 30 Sep · Home10:00 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 55%Draw 23%LV 22%6% → 4% – 13%Conference Sat 3 Oct · Away8:00 PM EDTTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultTUL 44%Draw 26%SAC 30%6% → 5% – 16%Conference Sat 10 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTColorado Springs77%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 51%Draw 25%COS 24%6% → 3% – 11%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away9:00 PM EDTEl Paso86%PlayoffsMatch resultELP 40%Draw 26%SAC 34%6% → 4% – 13%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTOakland4%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 60%Draw 22%OAK 18%6% → 3% – 12%Conference

History

Final · Home15 AugLexington0Sacramento▲ +3192% → 95%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugPittsburgh0Sacramento±0093% → 93%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugTulsa1Sacramento±0095% → 95%Playoffs

All results19 played

Final · Home15 AugLexington0Sacramento▲ +3192% → 95%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugPittsburgh0Sacramento±0093% → 93%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugTulsa1Sacramento±0095% → 95%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugJacksonville0Sacramento▼ -2593% → 91%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulOakland1Sacramento▲ +6387% → 93%Playoffs Final · Away18 JulCharleston1Sacramento▼ -3186% → 83%Playoffs Final · Home8 JulRhode Island1Sacramento2 Final · Home20 JunNew Mexico1Sacramento0 Final · Away13 JunColorado Springs0Sacramento1 Final · Away30 MayPhoenix2Sacramento0 Final · Away23 MaySan Antonio2Sacramento1 Final · Home2 MayOrange County2Sacramento3 Final · Away21 AprBrooklyn1Sacramento1 Final · Away11 AprLas Vegas1Sacramento1 Final · Home4 AprPhoenix0Sacramento2 Final · Home28 MarEl Paso2Sacramento1 Final · Home21 MarMonterey Bay1Sacramento1 Final · Away14 MarLexington0Sacramento0 Final · Home7 MarTulsa0Sacramento2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal59%

Sacramento 46+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

1SacramentoHome8Colorado Springs

Alongside it: 2 New Mexico v 7 Orange County · 3 Lexington v 6 El Paso · 4 Tulsa v 5 San Antonio

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 11,803. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Sacramento	50
2	New Mexico	49
3	Lexington	48
4	Tulsa	47
5	San Antonio	45
6	El Paso	44
7	Orange County	44
8	Colorado Springs	44
-	Las Vegas	43
-	Phoenix	36

Reach the quarterfinals on the road36%

Sacramento 40+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

2New MexicoHome7Sacramento

Alongside it: 1 Orange County v 8 Las Vegas · 3 Colorado Springs v 6 El Paso · 4 Tulsa v 5 San Antonio

39% of this route
- below San AntonioSan Antonio under 53 points (93%)
- below TulsaTulsa under 53 points (94%)
33% of this route
- above San AntonioSan Antonio under 46 points (94%)
27% of this route
- below San AntonioSan Antonio under 53 points (91%)
- above TulsaTulsa under 45 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,856. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Orange County	54
2	New Mexico	51
3	Colorado Springs	49
4	Tulsa	48
5	San Antonio	48
6	El Paso	44
7	Sacramento	43
8	Las Vegas	41
-	Lexington	40
-	Phoenix	35

Miss the postseason5%

Sacramento under 43 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 954. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	New Mexico	57
2	Orange County	55
3	Lexington	50
4	San Antonio	49
5	El Paso	45
6	Tulsa	44
7	Colorado Springs	44
8	Las Vegas	43
-	Sacramento	39
-	Phoenix	33