Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
6th by playoff odds25 clubs

Sacramento

3rd · 11-11-5 · 44 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
1

Win the next game and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Saturday.

Next upSaturday · Home10:00 PM EDTSacramento>99%PlayoffsColorado Springs94%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 53%Draw 24%COS 23%Win → 14% · Draw → 4% · Loss → <1%Conference
Last resultFinal · Away3 OctTulsa1Sacramento±01>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference12%
Championship10%

3rd in the table · 6th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 3rd. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home10:00 PM EDTSacramento>99%PlayoffsColorado Springs94%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 53%Draw 24%COS 23%Win → 14% · Draw → 4% · Loss → <1%Conference

Upcoming

Sat 17 Oct · Away9:00 PM EDTEl PasoClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultELP 42%Draw 26%SAC 32%12% → 0% – 27%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Home10:00 PM EDTOakland8%PlayoffsMatch resultSAC 59%Draw 22%OAK 19%12% → 0% – 15%Conference

History

Final · Away3 OctTulsa1Sacramento±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home30 SepLas Vegas2Sacramento▲ +1399% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away26 SepNew Mexico2Sacramento▲ +5394% → 99%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Away3 OctTulsa1Sacramento±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home30 SepLas Vegas2Sacramento▲ +1399% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away26 SepNew Mexico2Sacramento▲ +5394% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepSan Antonio0Sacramento±0095% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Home12 SepDetroit0Sacramento▲ +2193% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 SepOrange County1Sacramento±0191% → 91%PlayoffsFinal · Away29 AugMonterey Bay1Sacramento±0194% → 94%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 AugPhoenix2Sacramento▼ -1296% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugLexington0Sacramento▲ +3192% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Away8 AugPittsburgh0Sacramento±0093% → 93%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 AugTulsa1Sacramento±0095% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugJacksonville0Sacramento▼ -2593% → 91%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulOakland1Sacramento▲ +6387% → 93%PlayoffsFinal · Away18 JulCharleston1Sacramento▼ -3186% → 83%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 JulRhode Island1Sacramento2Final · Home20 JunNew Mexico1Sacramento0Final · Away13 JunColorado Springs0Sacramento1Final · Away30 MayPhoenix2Sacramento0Final · Away23 MaySan Antonio2Sacramento1Final · Home2 MayOrange County2Sacramento3Final · Away21 AprBrooklyn1Sacramento1Final · Away11 AprLas Vegas1Sacramento1Final · Home4 AprPhoenix0Sacramento2Final · Home28 MarEl Paso2Sacramento1Final · Home21 MarMonterey Bay1Sacramento1Final · Away14 MarLexington0Sacramento0Final · Home7 MarTulsa0Sacramento2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-03-092026-10-05

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal83%

Sacramento 47+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
2SacramentoHome7Orange County

Alongside it: 1 El Paso v 8 Colorado Springs · 3 Lexington v 6 San Antonio · 4 New Mexico v 5 Tulsa

  1. 66% of this route

  2. 19% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,935. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1El Paso56
2Sacramento50
3Lexington47
4New Mexico46
5Tulsa46
6San Antonio44
7Orange County42
8Colorado Springs41
-Las Vegas39
-Oakland38
Reach the quarterfinals on the road17%

Sacramento 44+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
2El PasoHome7Sacramento

Alongside it: 1 New Mexico v 8 Las Vegas · 3 Tulsa v 6 Colorado Springs · 4 Lexington v 5 Orange County

  1. 78% of this route

  2. 22% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,618. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1New Mexico53
2El Paso49
3Tulsa48
4Lexington47
5Orange County46
6Colorado Springs46
7Sacramento46
8Las Vegas43
-San Antonio39
-Oakland38
Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 1 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Sacramento under 45 points