MLB · 2026

4th by playoff odds30 clubs

Yankees

2nd · 71-55

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

28

Win the next 28 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Tue 8 Sep.

Next upTomorrow · Away6:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%NYY 53%Win → 29% · Loss → 22%Division

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugBaltimore3Yankees±05>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division18%

Bye18%

Pennant20%

World Series10%

2nd in the table · 4th by playoff odds.

AL East finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 2nd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 4th. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tomorrow · Away6:35 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%NYY 53%Win → 29% · Loss → 22%Division

Upcoming

Friday · Home7:05 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%18% → 22% – 28%Division Saturday · Home1:35 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%18% → 22% – 29%Division Sunday · Home1:35 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%18% → 22% – 30%Division

Full schedule36 to play

Tomorrow · Away6:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%NYY 53%18% → 22% – 29%Division Friday · Home7:05 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%18% → 22% – 28%Division Saturday · Home1:35 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%18% → 22% – 29%Division Sunday · Home1:35 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 58%TOR 42%18% → 22% – 30%Division Tuesday · Home7:05 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 59%HOU 41%18% → 23% – 31%Division Wed 26 Aug · Home7:05 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 59%HOU 41%18% → 24% – 32%Division Thu 27 Aug · Home7:05 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 59%HOU 41%18% → 24% – 31%Division Fri 28 Aug · Home7:15 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%18% → 22% – 31%Division Sat 29 Aug · Home7:15 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%18% → 21% – 30%Division Sun 30 Aug · Home1:35 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%18% → 21% – 30%Division Mon 31 Aug · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 38%NYY 62%18% → 21% – 28%Division Tue 1 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 38%NYY 62%18% → 20% – 27%Division Wed 2 Sep · Away9:38 PM EDTAngels<1%PlayoffsMatch resultLAA 38%NYY 62%18% → 20% – 27%Division Fri 4 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 52%NYY 48%18% → 20% – 27%Division Sat 5 Sep · Away7:15 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 52%NYY 48%18% → 19% – 27%Division Sun 6 Sep · Away4:10 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 52%NYY 48%18% → 19% – 26%Division Tue 8 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 70%COL 30%18% → 17% – 24%Division Wed 9 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 70%COL 30%18% → 17% – 24%Division Thu 10 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTColorado<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 70%COL 30%18% → 16% – 23%Division Fri 11 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 61%NYM 39%18% → 16% – 23%Division Sat 12 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 61%NYM 39%18% → 16% – 23%Division Sun 13 Sep · Home1:35 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 61%NYM 39%18% → 18% – 24%Division Mon 14 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTMinnesota30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 45%NYY 55%18% → 18% – 25%Division Tue 15 Sep · Away7:40 PM EDTMinnesota30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 45%NYY 55%18% → 18% – 25%Division Wed 16 Sep · Away1:40 PM EDTMinnesota30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 45%NYY 55%18% → 18% – 25%Division Fri 18 Sep · Away9:40 PM EDTArizona39%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 49%NYY 51%18% → 20% – 27%Division Sat 19 Sep · Away8:10 PM EDTArizona39%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 49%NYY 51%18% → 21% – 28%Division Sun 20 Sep · Away4:10 PM EDTArizona39%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 49%NYY 51%18% → 21% – 28%Division Tue 22 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%18% → 17% – 30%Division Wed 23 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%18% → 16% – 29%Division Thu 24 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%18% → 18% – 29%Division Fri 25 Sep · Home7:05 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 60%BAL 40%18% → 20% – 27%Division Sat 26 Sep · Home7:15 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 60%BAL 40%18% → 19% – 27%Division Sun 27 Sep · Home3:20 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 60%BAL 40%18% → 17% – 23%Division Postponed · HomeDate TBDTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%18% → 15% – 28%Division Postponed · HomeDate TBDBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%BOS 46%18% → 21% – 29%Division

History

Final · Away19 AugBaltimore3Yankees±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugBaltimore1Yankees▲ +1399% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugToronto3Yankees±0499% → 99%Playoffs

All results126 played

Final · Away19 AugBaltimore3Yankees±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away18 AugBaltimore1Yankees▲ +1399% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugToronto3Yankees±0499% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugToronto4Yankees±0199% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away14 AugToronto3Yankees±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home13 AugSeattle1Yankees±00>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home12 AugSeattle5Yankees±010>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home11 AugSeattle1Yankees±0499% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugAtlanta2Yankees±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugAtlanta4Yankees±0599% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home7 AugAtlanta2Yankees±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home5 AugSt. Louis3Yankees±0199% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home4 AugSt. Louis0Yankees±0299% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home3 AugSt. Louis13Yankees±0799% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away2 AugCubs1Yankees±0298% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugCubs5Yankees±0299% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulCubs0Yankees±0299% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away30 JulWhite Sox2Yankees±0199% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away29 JulWhite Sox6Yankees▼ -15>99% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away28 JulWhite Sox2Yankees±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away27 JulWhite Sox5Yankees±0999% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away26 JulPhiladelphia11Yankees±0499% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulPhiladelphia1Yankees±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away24 JulPhiladelphia0Yankees±0197% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulPittsburgh0Yankees▼ -1298% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulPittsburgh5Yankees±0398% → 98%Playoffs Final · Home20 JulPittsburgh5Yankees8 Final · Home19 JulDodgers1Yankees2 Final · Home19 JulDodgers8Yankees2 Final · Home17 JulDodgers2Yankees1 Final · Away12 JulWashington3Yankees5 Final · Away11 JulWashington2Yankees4 Final · Away10 JulWashington3Yankees5 Final · Away9 JulTampa Bay4Yankees12 Final · Away8 JulTampa Bay3Yankees0 Final · Away7 JulTampa Bay6Yankees4 Final · Away6 JulTampa Bay1Yankees5 Final · Home5 JulMinnesota6Yankees1 Final · Home4 JulMinnesota11Yankees4 Final · Home3 JulMinnesota2Yankees5 Final · Home1 JulDetroit6Yankees2 Final · Home30 JunDetroit9Yankees3 Final · Home29 JunDetroit7Yankees3 Final · Away28 JunBoston5Yankees4 Final · Away27 JunBoston4Yankees1 Final · Away26 JunBoston6Yankees1 Final · Away25 JunBoston6Yankees3 Final · Away24 JunDetroit2Yankees4 Final · Away23 JunDetroit3Yankees4 Final · Away22 JunDetroit5Yankees3 Final · Home21 JunCincinnati4Yankees1 Final · Home20 JunCincinnati10Yankees2 Final · Home19 JunCincinnati0Yankees5 Final · Home18 JunWhite Sox5Yankees1 Final · Home17 JunWhite Sox5Yankees10 Final · Home16 JunWhite Sox2Yankees12 Final · Away14 JunToronto3Yankees8 Final · Away13 JunToronto1Yankees3 Final · Away12 JunToronto8Yankees5 Final · Away10 JunCleveland4Yankees8 Final · Away9 JunCleveland2Yankees3 Final · Away8 JunCleveland5Yankees7 Final · Home7 JunBoston1Yankees6 Final · Home5 JunBoston5Yankees3 Final · Home4 JunCleveland1Yankees2 Final · Home3 JunCleveland5Yankees4 Final · Home2 JunCleveland9Yankees4 Final · Away31 MayAthletics8Yankees13 Final · Away30 MayAthletics6Yankees4 Final · Away29 MayAthletics2Yankees8 Final · Away27 MayKansas City0Yankees7 Final · Away26 MayKansas City1Yankees15 Final · Away25 MayKansas City3Yankees4 Final · Home24 MayTampa Bay0Yankees2 Final · Home22 MayTampa Bay4Yankees2 Final · Home21 MayToronto2Yankees0 Final · Home20 MayToronto2Yankees1 Final · Home19 MayToronto4Yankees5 Final · Home18 MayToronto6Yankees7 Final · Away17 MayMets7Yankees6 Final · Away16 MayMets6Yankees3 Final · Away15 MayMets2Yankees5 Final · Away13 MayBaltimore7Yankees0 Final · Away12 MayBaltimore2Yankees6 Final · Away11 MayBaltimore3Yankees2 Final · Away10 MayMilwaukee4Yankees3 Final · Away9 MayMilwaukee4Yankees3 Final · Away8 MayMilwaukee6Yankees0 Final · Home7 MayTexas2Yankees9 Final · Home6 MayTexas6Yankees1 Final · Home5 MayTexas4Yankees7 Final · Home4 MayBaltimore1Yankees12 Final · Home3 MayBaltimore3Yankees11 Final · Home2 MayBaltimore4Yankees9 Final · Home1 MayBaltimore2Yankees7 Final · Away29 AprTexas3Yankees0 Final · Away28 AprTexas2Yankees3 Final · Away27 AprTexas2Yankees4 Final · Away26 AprHouston7Yankees4 Final · Away25 AprHouston3Yankees8 Final · Away24 AprHouston4Yankees12 Final · Away23 AprBoston2Yankees4 Final · Away22 AprBoston1Yankees4 Final · Away21 AprBoston0Yankees4 Final · Home19 AprKansas City0Yankees7 Final · Home18 AprKansas City4Yankees13 Final · Home17 AprKansas City2Yankees4 Final · Home16 AprAngels11Yankees4 Final · Home15 AprAngels4Yankees5 Final · Home14 AprAngels7Yankees1 Final · Home13 AprAngels10Yankees11 Final · Away12 AprTampa Bay5Yankees4 Final · Away11 AprTampa Bay5Yankees4 Final · Away10 AprTampa Bay5Yankees3 Final · Home9 AprAthletics1Yankees0 Final · Home8 AprAthletics3Yankees2 Final · Home7 AprAthletics3Yankees5 Final · Home5 AprMiami7Yankees6 Final · Home4 AprMiami7Yankees9 Final · Home3 AprMiami2Yankees8 Final · Away1 AprSeattle3Yankees5 Final · Away31 MarSeattle0Yankees5 Final · Away30 MarSeattle2Yankees1 Final · Away28 MarSan Francisco1Yankees3 Final · Away27 MarSan Francisco0Yankees3 Final · Away25 MarSan Francisco0Yankees7

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye18%

Yankees 92+ wins

Division Series

1YankeesHomeWild Card Series winner4 Tampa Bay or 5 Boston

Alongside it: 2 White Sox v Wild Card Series winner

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,539. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Yankees	95	67
2	White Sox	84	78
3	Houston	83	79
4	Tampa Bay	92	70
5	Boston	85	77
6	Cleveland	83	79
-	Minnesota	83	79
-	Seattle	82	80

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series62%

Yankees 89+ wins

Wild Card Series

4YankeesHome5Boston

Alongside it: 3 Minnesota v 6 Baltimore

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,432. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	96	66
2	Houston	87	75
3	Minnesota	83	79
4	Yankees	92	70
5	Boston	87	75
6	Baltimore	83	79
-	White Sox	82	80
-	Detroit	80	82

Wild Card berth, on the road20%

Yankees 86+ wins

Wild Card Series

4BostonHome5Yankees

Alongside it: 3 Cleveland v 6 Houston

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,014. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	96	66
2	Texas	86	76
3	Cleveland	82	80
4	Boston	91	71
5	Yankees	88	74
6	Houston	83	79
-	Baltimore	81	81
-	Detroit	80	82

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 15 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Yankees under 85 wins