Magic Number - FC Dallas 2026

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

3

Win the next 3 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Wednesday.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 44%Draw 26%DAL 30%Win → 36% · Draw → 21% · Loss → 13%Conference

Last resultFinal · Home26 SepLAFC0Dallas±01>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference21%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup10%

3rd in the table · 6th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 2nd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 44%Draw 26%DAL 30%Win → 36% · Draw → 21% · Loss → 13%Conference

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home8:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 50%Draw 25%SEA 25%21% → 13% – 34%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 39%Draw 27%DAL 34%21% → 14% – 36%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSan Jose>99%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 53%Draw 24%SJ 23%21% → 12% – 34%Conference

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 44%Draw 26%DAL 30%21% → 13% – 36%Conference Wednesday · Home8:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 50%Draw 25%SEA 25%21% → 13% – 34%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 39%Draw 27%DAL 34%21% → 14% – 36%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSan Jose>99%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 53%Draw 24%SJ 23%21% → 12% – 34%Conference Wed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 57%Draw 23%CLB 20%21% → 11% – 31%Conference Sat 31 Oct · Away3:00 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 23%Draw 24%DAL 53%21% → 10% – 31%Conference Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 57%Draw 23%COL 20%21% → 8% – 28%Conference

History

Final · Home26 SepLAFC0Dallas±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepAustin0Dallas±00>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepPortland1Dallas±02>99% → >99%Playoffs

All results27 played

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home90%

Dallas 56+ points

Round One

3DallasHome6LAFC

Alongside it: 1 San Jose v Wild Card winner · 2 St. Louis v 7 Colorado · 4 Houston v 5 Vancouver

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 18,024. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	San Jose	59
2	St. Louis	59
3	Dallas	59
4	Houston	57
5	Vancouver	55
6	LAFC	52
7	Colorado	51
8	Seattle	49
9	LA Galaxy	46
-	San Diego	42
-	Portland	39

Reach Round One directly, on the road10%

Dallas 51+ points

Round One

4HoustonHome5Dallas

Alongside it: 1 St. Louis v Wild Card winner · 2 Vancouver v 7 Colorado · 3 San Jose v 6 Seattle

87% of this route
- below HoustonHouston under 61 points (95%)
13% of this route
- above HoustonHouston 1+ point back (99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,711. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	St. Louis	65
2	Vancouver	58
3	San Jose	57
4	Houston	56
5	Dallas	53
6	Seattle	51
7	Colorado	49
8	LA Galaxy	48
9	LAFC	45
-	San Diego	45
-	Portland	41

Host the Wild Card game<1%

A possible long-shot route: 6 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Dallas 47+ points

Play the Wild Card game awayNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 1 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Dallas under 49 points