Magic Number - Indy Eleven 2026

Playoffs19%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

3

Win the next 3 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 17 Oct.

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

3

Lose the next 3 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 17 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home · Their biggest game left7:00 PM EDTIndy19%PlayoffsTampa BayClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultIND 31%Draw 26%TBR 43%Win → 50% · Draw → 19% · Loss → 12%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away3 OctLoudoun1Indy▼ -2148% → 46%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Championship<1%

9th in the table · 18th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st8th · playoff line13th

Most likely 9th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

All results27 played

Final · Away3 OctLoudoun1Indy▼ -2148% → 46%Playoffs Final · Away30 SepRhode Island1Indy±0073% → 73%Playoffs Final · Home26 SepMiami2Indy▼ -19092% → 73%Playoffs Final · Home20 SepOakland1Indy▼ -4097% → 93%Playoffs Final · Home15 SepBrooklyn0Indy▲ +4495% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away11 SepNew Mexico2Indy▲ +2293% → 95%Playoffs Final · Home5 SepBirmingham2Indy▼ -2295% → 93%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugPhoenix2Indy±0195% → 95%Playoffs Final · Home22 AugLouisville1Indy▲ +10285% → 95%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugJacksonville0Indy±0171% → 71%Playoffs Final · Home9 AugHartford1Indy±0174% → 74%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulSan Antonio3Indy▼ -7178% → 71%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulLoudoun1Indy▼ -9086% → 77%Playoffs Final · Away18 JulDetroit2Indy▼ -8086% → 78%Playoffs Final · Away15 JulMiami2Indy0 Final · Home4 JulCharleston0Indy2 Final · Away13 JunPittsburgh1Indy0 Final · Home30 MayRhode Island0Indy1 Final · Home23 MayLexington1Indy3 Final · Home9 MayJacksonville1Indy2 Final · Away2 MayTampa Bay1Indy0 Final · Away19 AprBirmingham2Indy2 Final · Home11 AprMonterey Bay1Indy3 Final · Home4 AprPittsburgh1Indy1 Final · Away28 MarHartford2Indy2 Final · Home21 MarDetroit1Indy2 Final · Away8 MarBrooklyn1Indy0

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal<1%

A possible long-shot route: 4 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Indy 43+ points

Reach the quarterfinals on the road19%

Indy 37+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

1Tampa BayHome8Indy

Alongside it: 2 Charleston v 7 Hartford · 3 Detroit v 6 Pittsburgh · 4 Rhode Island v 5 Louisville

83% of this route
- above MiamiMiami out of the postseason (>99%) · Miami 1+ point back (>99%)
- below LouisvilleLouisville under 47 points (90%)
17% of this route
- below MiamiMiami under 43 points (>99%)
- above LouisvilleLouisville under 46 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,192. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Tampa Bay	55
2	Charleston	53
3	Detroit	52
4	Rhode Island	44
5	Louisville	43
6	Pittsburgh	42
7	Hartford	42
8	Indy	39
-	Miami	37
-	Birmingham	30

Miss the postseason81%

Indy under 39 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 16,171. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Tampa Bay	53
2	Charleston	52
3	Detroit	50
4	Pittsburgh	47
5	Louisville	47
6	Rhode Island	45
7	Hartford	44
8	Miami	39
-	Indy	36
-	Birmingham	29

Indy

Chances

Schedule

Next up

Upcoming

History

Season so far

Paths