Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
9th by playoff odds25 clubs

Rhode Island

6th · 7-4-7 · 25 pts
Playoffs94%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
10

Win the next 10 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home · Their biggest game left7:30 PM EDTRhode Island94%PlayoffsMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 62%Draw 21%MB 17%Win → 98% · Draw → 93% · Loss → 90%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away15 AugTampa Bay2Rhode Island±0096% → 96%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Championship2%

6th in the table · 9th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line13th

Most likely 6th. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home · Their biggest game left7:30 PM EDTRhode Island94%PlayoffsMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 62%Draw 21%MB 17%Win → 98% · Draw → 93% · Loss → 90%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultTUL 49%Draw 25%RI 26%94% → 94% – 98%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTLouisville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 32%Draw 26%LOU 42%94% → 94% – 98%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTJacksonville<1%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 30%Draw 26%RI 44%94% → 94% – 98%Playoffs
Full schedule12 to play
Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 62%Draw 21%MB 17%94% → 90% – 98%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultTUL 49%Draw 25%RI 26%94% → 94% – 98%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTLouisville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 32%Draw 26%LOU 42%94% → 94% – 98%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTJacksonville<1%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 30%Draw 26%RI 44%94% → 94% – 98%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTMiami10%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 58%Draw 22%MFC 20%94% → 92% – 98%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTCharleston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHS 55%Draw 23%RI 22%94% → 95% – 99%PlayoffsWed 30 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTIndy85%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 49%Draw 25%IND 26%94% → 93% – 99%PlayoffsSat 3 Oct · Away7:00 PM EDTBrooklyn5%PlayoffsMatch resultBKN 35%Draw 27%RI 38%94% → 94% – 99%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Away7:00 PM EDTDetroit>99%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 48%Draw 25%RI 27%94% → 96% – 99%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTLoudoun15%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 52%Draw 24%LDN 24%94% → 92% – 99%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTPittsburgh98%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 42%Draw 26%PIT 32%94% → 93% – 98%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away7:00 PM EDTHartford83%PlayoffsMatch resultHFD 44%Draw 26%RI 30%94% → 94% – 98%Playoffs

History

Final · Away15 AugTampa Bay2Rhode Island±0096% → 96%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugColorado Springs0Rhode Island▼ -2291% → 89%PlayoffsFinal · Away2 AugBirmingham1Rhode Island▼ -6094% → 88%Playoffs
All results18 played
Final · Away15 AugTampa Bay2Rhode Island±0096% → 96%PlayoffsFinal · Home8 AugColorado Springs0Rhode Island▼ -2291% → 89%PlayoffsFinal · Away2 AugBirmingham1Rhode Island▼ -6094% → 88%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulPittsburgh0Rhode Island▲ +15178% → 93%PlayoffsFinal · Home18 JulHartford0Rhode Island▲ +11168% → 79%PlayoffsFinal · Away8 JulSacramento2Rhode Island1Final · Home4 JulOrange County1Rhode Island1Final · Away13 JunLoudoun1Rhode Island4Final · Away30 MayIndy1Rhode Island0Final · Home23 MayBrooklyn1Rhode Island4Final · Home9 MayTampa Bay1Rhode Island1Final · Home2 MayBirmingham3Rhode Island1Final · Home22 AprCharleston0Rhode Island4Final · Away11 AprLexington1Rhode Island3Final · Home4 AprDetroit0Rhode Island0Final · Away28 MarMiami2Rhode Island1Final · Away21 MarLouisville4Rhode Island2Final · Home14 MarJacksonville1Rhode Island1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 18 Jul: 68% to 80%2026-03-092026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal19%

Rhode Island 45+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
4Rhode IslandHome5Pittsburgh

Alongside it: 1 Tampa Bay v 8 Loudoun · 2 Louisville v 7 Hartford · 3 Charleston v 6 Detroit

  1. 73% of this route

  2. 27% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,790. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Tampa Bay64
2Louisville51
3Charleston50
4Rhode Island48
5Pittsburgh44
6Detroit44
7Hartford43
8Loudoun37
-Brooklyn34
-Indy34
Reach the quarterfinals on the road75%
Conference Quarterfinals
3LouisvilleHome6Rhode Island

Alongside it: 1 Tampa Bay v 8 Hartford · 2 Charleston v 7 Birmingham · 4 Detroit v 5 Pittsburgh

  1. 78% of this route

  2. 22% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 11,704. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Tampa Bay64
2Charleston53
3Louisville48
4Detroit47
5Pittsburgh46
6Rhode Island41
7Birmingham39
8Hartford38
-Loudoun35
-Indy33
Miss the postseason6%