Magic Number - Louisville City 2026

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

8

Win the next 8 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away · Their biggest game left7:00 PM EDTLouisville>99%PlayoffsIndy85%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 29%Draw 26%LOU 45%Win → 1% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Conference

Last resultFinal · Away15 AugOrange County2Louisville±0399% → 99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference1%

Championship13%

4th in the table · 4th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st8th · playoff line13th

Most likely 3rd. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away · Their biggest game left7:00 PM EDTLouisville>99%PlayoffsIndy85%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 29%Draw 26%LOU 45%Win → 1% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Conference

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home8:00 PM EDTDetroit>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLOU 56%Draw 23%DET 21%>99% → 99% – >99%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTRhode Island94%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 32%Draw 26%LOU 42%1% → <1% – 1%Conference Sat 12 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTEl Paso86%PlayoffsMatch resultLOU 59%Draw 22%ELP 19%1% → <1% – 1%Conference

Full schedule10 to play

Saturday · Away7:00 PM EDTIndy85%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 29%Draw 26%LOU 45%1% → 0% – 1%Conference Sat 29 Aug · Home8:00 PM EDTDetroit>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLOU 56%Draw 23%DET 21%>99% → 99% – >99%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTRhode Island94%PlayoffsMatch resultRI 32%Draw 26%LOU 42%1% → <1% – 1%Conference Sat 12 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTEl Paso86%PlayoffsMatch resultLOU 59%Draw 22%ELP 19%1% → <1% – 1%Conference Sat 19 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTLoudoun15%PlayoffsMatch resultLOU 66%Draw 19%LDN 15%1% → <1% – 1%Conference Fri 25 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTHartford83%PlayoffsMatch resultHFD 32%Draw 26%LOU 42%1% → <1% – 1%Conference Sun 4 Oct · Away5:00 PM EDTJacksonville<1%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 20%Draw 23%LOU 57%1% → <1% – <1%Conference Sat 10 Oct · Away6:00 PM EDTCharleston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHS 42%Draw 26%LOU 32%1% → 0% – 1%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTIndy85%PlayoffsMatch resultLOU 62%Draw 21%IND 17%1% → <1% – 1%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTDetroit>99%PlayoffsMatch resultLOU 56%Draw 23%DET 21%1% → 0% – 1%Conference

History

Final · Away15 AugOrange County2Louisville±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugSan Antonio1Louisville▼ -11>99% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugTampa Bay5Louisville±04>99% → >99%Playoffs

All results20 played

Final · Away15 AugOrange County2Louisville±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home8 AugSan Antonio1Louisville▼ -11>99% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugTampa Bay5Louisville±04>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home29 JulBirmingham1Louisville▼ -1299% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away18 JulPittsburgh3Louisville▼ -11>99% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home4 JulHartford0Louisville1 Final · Home13 JunBrooklyn2Louisville2 Final · Away10 JunPhoenix0Louisville2 Final · Away3 JunBirmingham1Louisville1 Final · Home30 MayTampa Bay2Louisville0 Final · Away23 MayMiami4Louisville3 Final · Home9 MayPittsburgh2Louisville0 Final · Away2 MayDetroit2Louisville1 Final · Home18 AprJacksonville0Louisville1 Final · Away10 AprLoudoun3Louisville3 Final · Home4 AprCharleston2Louisville0 Final · Away28 MarBrooklyn0Louisville1 Final · Home21 MarRhode Island2Louisville4 Final · Home14 MarMiami1Louisville4 Final · Away6 MarLexington1Louisville2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal74%

Louisville 45+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

2LouisvilleHome7Pittsburgh

Alongside it: 1 Tampa Bay v 8 Indy · 3 Charleston v 6 Hartford · 4 Rhode Island v 5 Detroit

74% of this route
- above DetroitDetroit 1+ point back (>99%)
26% of this route
- below DetroitDetroit under 56 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,915. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Tampa Bay	58
2	Louisville	51
3	Charleston	50
4	Rhode Island	50
5	Detroit	45
6	Hartford	45
7	Pittsburgh	45
8	Indy	43
-	Miami	33
-	Loudoun	31

Reach the quarterfinals on the road26%

Louisville 41+ points

Conference Quarterfinals

4PittsburghHome5Louisville

Alongside it: 1 Tampa Bay v 8 Rhode Island · 2 Detroit v 7 Hartford · 3 Charleston v 6 Indy

73% of this route
- below PittsburghPittsburgh under 52 points (90%)
27% of this route
- above PittsburghPittsburgh 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,786. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Tampa Bay	61
2	Detroit	49
3	Charleston	48
4	Pittsburgh	48
5	Louisville	44
6	Indy	40
7	Hartford	40
8	Rhode Island	37
-	Loudoun	32
-	Brooklyn	31

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 34 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Louisville under 40 points