Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
1st by playoff odds32 clubs

Minnesota

1st · 4-0-0
Playoffs83%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away1:00 PM EDTMinnesota83%PlayoffsNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 33%Tie <1%MIN 67%Win → 77% · Tie → 73% · Loss → 63%Division
Last resultFinal · Home4 OctMiami10Minnesota▲ +31580% → 83%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division55%
Bye28%
Conference22%
Super Bowl13%

1st in the table · 1st by playoff odds.

NFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTMinnesota83%PlayoffsNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 33%Tie <1%MIN 67%Win → 77% · Tie → 73% · Loss → 63%Division

Upcoming

Sun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 73%Tie <1%IND 27%55% → 60% – 76%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 43%Tie <1%MIN 56%55% → 61% – 79%DivisionMon 9 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 61%Tie <1%BUF 38%55% → 65% – 80%Division
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 33%Tie <1%MIN 67%55% → 63% – 77%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 73%Tie <1%IND 27%55% → 60% – 76%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 43%Tie <1%MIN 56%55% → 61% – 79%DivisionMon 9 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 61%Tie <1%BUF 38%55% → 65% – 80%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 43%Tie <1%MIN 57%55% → 64% – 80%DivisionSun 22 Nov · Away8:20 PM EST49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 51%Tie <1%MIN 49%55% → 66% – 79%DivisionSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 70%Tie <1%ATL 30%55% → 64% – 77%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Home4:25 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 72%Tie <1%CAR 28%55% → 63% – 76%DivisionThu 10 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 52%Tie <1%MIN 48%55% → 66% – 80%DivisionSun 20 Dec · Home8:20 PM ESTDetroit39%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 70%Tie <1%DET 30%55% → 60% – 77%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTWashington18%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 78%Tie <1%WAS 22%55% → 64% – 78%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 29%Tie <1%MIN 70%55% → 64% – 78%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 63%Tie <1%CHI 37%55% → 55% – 84%Division

History

Final · Home4 OctMiami10Minnesota▲ +31580% → 83%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepTampa Bay16Minnesota±02372% → 72%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepChicago3Minnesota▲ +13958% → 71%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home4 OctMiami10Minnesota▲ +31580% → 83%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepTampa Bay16Minnesota±02372% → 72%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepChicago3Minnesota▲ +13958% → 71%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepGreen Bay22Minnesota▲ +133948% → 61%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 27 Sep: 72% to 93%2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye28%

Minnesota 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1MinnesotaHomeWild Card Round winner4 49ers or 5 Chicago

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,514. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Minnesota1520
2Dallas1340
3Carolina1160
449ers1160
5Chicago1061
6Seattle1061
7Atlanta1070
-Giants1070
-Philadelphia890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game27%

Minnesota 11+ wins

Wild Card Round
2MinnesotaHome7Chicago

Alongside it: 3 Seattle v 6 49ers · 4 Giants v 5 Green Bay

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,478. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Atlanta1340
2Minnesota1241
3Seattle1250
4Giants1070
5Green Bay1160
649ers1070
7Chicago980
-Philadelphia980
-Dallas890
-Detroit890
Wild Card berth, on the road28%

Minnesota 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
249ersHome7Minnesota

Alongside it: 3 New Orleans v 6 Detroit · 4 Giants v 5 Rams

  1. 43% of this route

  2. 38% of this route

  3. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,407. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Green Bay1430
249ers1250
3New Orleans1250
4Giants980
5Rams1160
6Detroit1160
7Minnesota1160
-Seattle1070
-Chicago890
Miss the postseason17%

Minnesota under 10.5 wins

  1. 65% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

  3. 14% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,206. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Atlanta1520
2Seattle1232
3Chicago1160
4Philadelphia980
5Detroit1061
6Green Bay1070
7Carolina881
-Minnesota890
-49ers890