Magic Number.
USL Championship · 2026
3rd by playoff odds25 clubs

New Mexico

2nd · 10-3-4 · 33 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
8

Win the next 8 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away6:30 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsLoudoun15%PlayoffsMatch resultLDN 30%Draw 26%NM 44%Win → 74% · Draw → 64% · Loss → 57%Conference
Last resultFinal · Home15 AugTulsa0New Mexico±01>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference69%
Championship17%

2nd in the table · 3rd by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st8th · playoff line12th

Most likely 1st. The top 8 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away6:30 PM EDTNew Mexico>99%PlayoffsLoudoun15%PlayoffsMatch resultLDN 30%Draw 26%NM 44%Win → 74% · Draw → 64% · Loss → 57%Conference

Upcoming

Wed 26 Aug · Home9:30 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 56%Draw 23%LEX 21%69% → 57% – 74%ConferenceSat 29 Aug · Home9:30 PM EDTSan Antonio90%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 54%Draw 24%SA 22%69% → 56% – 75%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 32%Draw 26%NM 42%69% → 60% – 78%Conference
Full schedule13 to play
Saturday · Away6:30 PM EDTLoudoun15%PlayoffsMatch resultLDN 30%Draw 26%NM 44%69% → 57% – 74%ConferenceWed 26 Aug · Home9:30 PM EDTLexington81%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 56%Draw 23%LEX 21%69% → 57% – 74%ConferenceSat 29 Aug · Home9:30 PM EDTSan Antonio90%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 54%Draw 24%SA 22%69% → 56% – 75%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTLas Vegas58%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 32%Draw 26%NM 42%69% → 60% – 78%ConferenceFri 11 Sep · Home9:30 PM EDTIndy85%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 59%Draw 22%IND 19%69% → 55% – 74%ConferenceSat 19 Sep · Away9:00 PM EDTColorado Springs77%PlayoffsMatch resultCOS 35%Draw 27%NM 38%69% → 59% – 79%ConferenceSat 26 Sep · Home9:00 PM EDTSacramento95%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 49%Draw 25%SAC 26%69% → 54% – 80%ConferenceWed 30 Sep · Away8:00 PM EDTTulsa87%PlayoffsMatch resultTUL 40%Draw 26%NM 34%69% → 60% – 79%ConferenceSun 4 Oct · Home6:00 PM EDTPhoenix23%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 58%Draw 22%PHX 20%69% → 54% – 74%ConferenceSat 10 Oct · Home9:00 PM EDTMonterey Bay<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNM 71%Draw 17%MB 12%69% → 50% – 71%ConferenceSat 17 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSan Antonio90%PlayoffsMatch resultSA 36%Draw 27%NM 37%69% → 57% – 79%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Away8:00 PM EDTEl Paso86%PlayoffsMatch resultELP 35%Draw 27%NM 38%69% → 59% – 80%ConferencePostponed · AwayDate TBDBirmingham10%PlayoffsMatch resultBHM 27%Draw 25%NM 48%69% → 59% – 77%Conference

History

Final · Home15 AugTulsa0New Mexico±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away8 AugMonterey Bay2New Mexico±0599% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugColorado Springs0New Mexico±0198% → 98%Playoffs
All results17 played
Final · Home15 AugTulsa0New Mexico±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away8 AugMonterey Bay2New Mexico±0599% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugColorado Springs0New Mexico±0198% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 JulLexington1New Mexico4Final · Home4 JulOakland1New Mexico2Final · Away20 JunSacramento0New Mexico1Final · Home13 JunOrange County1New Mexico1Final · Away30 MayHartford0New Mexico0Final · Home23 MayCharleston0New Mexico1Final · Home20 MayTampa Bay1New Mexico0Final · Home9 MayLas Vegas1New Mexico3Final · Home6 MayEl Paso2New Mexico2Final · Away11 AprPhoenix3New Mexico0Final · Away4 AprOrange County0New Mexico1Final · Home28 MarColorado Springs2New Mexico3Final · Away21 MarSan Antonio1New Mexico0Final · Away14 MarOakland2New Mexico1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-03-092026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Host a conference quarterfinal97%

New Mexico 50+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
1New MexicoHome8Lexington

Alongside it: 2 Tulsa v 7 Las Vegas · 3 Sacramento v 6 El Paso · 4 Orange County v 5 San Antonio

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 19,350. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1New Mexico55
2Tulsa52
3Sacramento52
4Orange County49
5San Antonio48
6El Paso43
7Las Vegas43
8Lexington42
-Colorado Springs39
-Phoenix37
Reach the quarterfinals on the road3%

New Mexico 43+ points

Conference Quarterfinals
3LexingtonHome6New Mexico

Alongside it: 1 San Antonio v 8 El Paso · 2 Orange County v 7 Tulsa · 4 Sacramento v 5 Colorado Springs

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 630. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1San Antonio53
2Orange County51
3Lexington49
4Sacramento48
5Colorado Springs47
6New Mexico45
7Tulsa44
8El Paso42
-Las Vegas39
-Phoenix29
Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 20 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

New Mexico under 43 points