Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
29th by playoff odds30 clubs

Austin

14th · 4-5-10 · 17 pts
Playoffs1%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
12

Lose the next 12 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Happening nowIn progressAway · Their biggest game leftStarted 9:30 PM EDTAustinSeattle
Last resultFinal · Home16 AugDallas2Austin±013% → 3%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%

14th in the table · 29th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 14th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The game in progress, what follows it, and what already happened.

Happening now

In progressAway · Their biggest game leftStarted 9:30 PM EDTAustinSeattle

Upcoming

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 36%Draw 27%PHI 37%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 53%Draw 24%ATX 23%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 38%Draw 27%SJ 35%1% → 1% – 2%Playoffs
Full schedule15 to play
In progressAwayStarted 9:30 PM EDTSeattleSaturday · Home8:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 36%Draw 27%PHI 37%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 53%Draw 24%ATX 23%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 38%Draw 27%SJ 35%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTColorado37%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 41%Draw 27%COL 32%1% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 13 Sep · Away6:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 66%Draw 19%ATX 15%1% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 57%Draw 23%ATX 20%1% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 33%Draw 27%SD 40%1% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 25%Draw 25%NSH 50%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 62%Draw 21%ATX 17%1% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 26%Draw 25%VAN 49%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 37%Draw 27%ATX 36%1% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 36%Draw 27%RSL 37%1% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 31 Oct · Away5:00 PM EDTLA Galaxy9%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 48%Draw 25%ATX 27%1% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 38%Draw 27%POR 35%1% → 0% – 2%Playoffs

History

Final · Home16 AugDallas2Austin±013% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugColorado1Austin±006% → 6%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulHouston3Austin▲ +605% → 11%Playoffs
All results19 played
Final · Home16 AugDallas2Austin±013% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugColorado1Austin±006% → 6%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulHouston3Austin▲ +605% → 11%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulSeattle1Austin±035% → 5%PlayoffsFinal · Away23 MaySt. Louis3Austin0Final · Home16 MaySporting KC2Austin1Final · Away13 MaySan Diego5Austin0Final · Away10 MayMinnesota2Austin2Final · Home3 MaySt. Louis0Austin2Final · Home25 AprHouston0Austin2Final · Away22 AprSan Jose5Austin1Final · Away18 AprToronto3Austin3Final · Home11 AprLA Galaxy2Austin1Final · Away4 AprMiami2Austin2Final · Home21 MarLAFC0Austin0Final · Away14 MarSalt Lake2Austin1Final · Away7 MarCharlotte3Austin1Final · Home1 MarDC0Austin1Final · Home21 FebMinnesota2Austin2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at homeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach Round One directly, on the road<1%

A possible long-shot route: 38 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Austin 46+ points

Reach the Wild Card game1%
Miss the postseason99%