Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
29th by playoff odds30 clubs

Montreal

15th · 6-6-15 · 24 pts
Playoffs<1%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
5

Lose the next 5 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sun 18 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away1:00 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 51%Draw 25%MTL 24%Win → <1% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home26 SepCincinnati1Montreal±03<1% → <1%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut
Supporters' ShieldOut
MLS Cup<1%

15th in the table · 29th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 15th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away1:00 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 51%Draw 25%MTL 24%Win → <1% · Draw → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 41%Draw 27%ATL 32%<1% → 0% – <1%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 60%Draw 22%MTL 18%<1% → 0% – <1%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home1:30 PM EDTNashvilleClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultMTL 21%Draw 23%NSH 56%<1% → <1% – <1%Playoffs
Full schedule7 to play
Saturday · Away1:00 PM EDTToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 51%Draw 25%MTL 24%<1% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsWednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 41%Draw 27%ATL 32%<1% → 0% – <1%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 60%Draw 22%MTL 18%<1% → 0% – <1%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home1:30 PM EDTNashvilleClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultMTL 21%Draw 23%NSH 56%<1% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 65%Draw 20%MTL 15%<1% → <1% – <1%PlayoffsSat 31 Oct · Away2:00 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 57%Draw 23%MTL 20%<1% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 25%Draw 25%VAN 50%<1% → 0% – 1%Playoffs

History

Final · Home26 SepCincinnati1Montreal±03<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Home19 SepColumbus2Montreal±00<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepColorado1Montreal±00<1% → <1%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Home26 SepCincinnati1Montreal±03<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Home19 SepColumbus2Montreal±00<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepColorado1Montreal±00<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Home9 SepCharlotte2Montreal▼ -212% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 SepPhiladelphia2Montreal▼ -204% → 2%PlayoffsFinal · Away29 AugMiami7Montreal▼ -115% → 4%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 AugLA Galaxy2Montreal▼ -328% → 5%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 AugColumbus1Montreal▲ +622% → 8%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugDC1Montreal±013% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugNew England2Montreal±024% → 4%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulMiami1Montreal▼ -1010% → 9%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulNashville1Montreal▼ -2012% → 10%PlayoffsFinal · Home16 JulToronto0Montreal0Final · Away23 MayDC4Montreal4Final · Home16 MayChicago2Montreal0Final · Home13 MayPortland2Montreal2Final · Home9 MayOrlando0Montreal2Final · Away2 MayAtlanta3Montreal1Final · Home25 AprNY City0Montreal1Final · Home18 AprNY Red Bulls1Montreal4Final · Home11 AprPhiladelphia2Montreal1Final · Away4 AprNew England3Montreal0Final · Away22 MarCincinnati4Montreal3Final · Away14 MarOrlando2Montreal1Final · Away8 MarNY Red Bulls0Montreal3Final · Away28 FebChicago3Montreal0Final · Away21 FebSan Diego5Montreal0

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-10-07

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at homeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach Round One directly, on the road<1%

A possible long-shot route: 1 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Montreal 43+ points

Host the Wild Card game<1%

A possible long-shot route: 3 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Montreal 42+ points

Play the Wild Card game away<1%

A possible long-shot route: 14 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Montreal 39+ points

Miss the postseason>99%