Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
5th by playoff odds30 clubs

Chicago

4th · 13-6-8 · 45 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
4

Win the next 4 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Wednesday.

Next upSaturday · Home2:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 51%Draw 25%NYC 24%Win → >99% · Draw → >99% · Loss → >99%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home6 OctVancouver1Chicago±03>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup5%

4th in the table · 5th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 3rd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home2:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 51%Draw 25%NYC 24%Win → >99% · Draw → >99% · Loss → >99%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home8:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 43%Draw 26%PHI 31%>99% → 100% – 100%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 39%Draw 27%CHI 34%<1% → <1% – <1%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 30%Draw 26%CHI 44%<1% → 0% – <1%Conference
Full schedule7 to play
Saturday · Home2:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 51%Draw 25%NYC 24%>99% → 100% – 100%PlayoffsWednesday · Home8:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 43%Draw 26%PHI 31%>99% → 100% – 100%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 39%Draw 27%CHI 34%<1% → <1% – <1%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 30%Draw 26%CHI 44%<1% → 0% – <1%ConferenceWed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 50%Draw 25%ORL 25%<1% → 0% – <1%ConferenceSat 31 Oct · Away9:30 PM EDTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 35%Draw 27%CHI 38%>99% → 100% – 100%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 54%Draw 24%CLB 22%>99% → 100% – 100%Playoffs

History

Final · Home6 OctVancouver1Chicago±03>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away26 SepCharlotte0Chicago▲ +1199% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepNashville3Chicago▼ -10>99% → 99%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Home6 OctVancouver1Chicago±03>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away26 SepCharlotte0Chicago▲ +1199% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepNashville3Chicago▼ -10>99% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepNew England2Chicago±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home9 SepMiami1Chicago±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 SepToronto4Chicago±04>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away29 AugSeattle2Chicago±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 AugNY Red Bulls1Chicago±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 AugOrlando1Chicago±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home16 AugPortland1Chicago▲ +1298% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugCharlotte1Chicago±0295% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulNY City3Chicago±0198% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulMiami3Chicago▼ -1299% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Home23 MayToronto1Chicago2Final · Away16 MayMontreal0Chicago2Final · Away13 MayDC1Chicago3Final · Home9 MayNY Red Bulls3Chicago1Final · Home2 MayCincinnati3Chicago2Final · Home25 AprSporting KC0Chicago5Final · Away18 AprCincinnati3Chicago3Final · Home11 AprAtlanta0Chicago1Final · Home4 AprNashville0Chicago1Final · Away21 MarPhiladelphia1Chicago2Final · Home14 MarDC2Chicago1Final · Away7 MarColumbus0Chicago0Final · Home28 FebMontreal0Chicago3Final · Away21 FebHouston2Chicago1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-10-07

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home78%

Chicago 53+ points

Round One
2ChicagoHome7Cincinnati

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Miami v 6 Philadelphia · 4 New England v 5 Charlotte

  1. 71% of this route

  2. 29% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 11,124. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville74
2Chicago58
3Miami56
4New England53
5Charlotte53
6Philadelphia49
7Cincinnati48
8Orlando46
9NY City44
-DC39
-NY Red Bulls38
Reach Round One directly, on the road21%

Chicago 49+ points

Round One
4CharlotteHome5Chicago

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 NY Red Bulls · 3 New England v 6 Philadelphia

  1. 84% of this route

  2. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,631. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville75
2Miami57
3New England56
4Charlotte56
5Chicago52
6Philadelphia49
7NY Red Bulls45
8Orlando44
9NY City42
-DC42
-Cincinnati42
Host the Wild Card game<1%

A possible long-shot route: 41 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Chicago 47+ points

Play the Wild Card game away<1%

A possible long-shot route: 3 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Chicago 47+ points

Miss the postseasonNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.