Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
4th by playoff odds30 clubs

Chicago

4th · 10-2-6 · 32 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
11

Win the next 11 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Happening nowIn progressAwayStarted 7:30 PM EDTChicagoOrlando
Last resultFinal · Home16 AugPortland1Chicago▲ +1298% → 99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup3%

4th in the table · 4th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 3rd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The game in progress, what follows it, and what already happened.

Happening now

In progressAwayStarted 7:30 PM EDTChicagoOrlando

Upcoming

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 35%Draw 27%CHI 38%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away4:30 PM EDTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 42%Draw 26%CHI 32%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 33%Draw 27%CHI 40%1% → <1% – 1%Conference
Full schedule16 to play
In progressAwayStarted 7:30 PM EDTOrlandoSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 35%Draw 27%CHI 38%>99% → >99% – 100%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away4:30 PM EDTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 42%Draw 26%CHI 32%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 33%Draw 27%CHI 40%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceWed 9 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 33%Draw 27%MIA 40%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceSun 13 Sep · Home5:30 PM EDTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 53%Draw 24%NE 23%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceSat 19 Sep · Away9:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 54%Draw 24%CHI 22%1% → <1% – 3%ConferenceSat 26 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 45%Draw 26%CHI 29%1% → <1% – 2%ConferenceTue 6 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 36%Draw 27%VAN 37%1% → 1% – 2%ConferenceSat 10 Oct · Home2:30 PM EDTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 48%Draw 25%NYC 27%1% → <1% – 2%ConferenceWed 14 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 49%Draw 25%PHI 26%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceSat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 37%Draw 27%CHI 36%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 30%Draw 26%CHI 44%1% → <1% – 2%ConferenceWed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTOrlando60%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 49%Draw 25%ORL 26%1% → <1% – 1%ConferenceSat 31 Oct · Away9:30 PM EDTColorado37%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 36%Draw 27%CHI 37%1% → <1% – 2%ConferenceSat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 51%Draw 25%CLB 24%>99% → 99% – >99%Playoffs

History

Final · Home16 AugPortland1Chicago▲ +1298% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugCharlotte1Chicago±0295% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulNY City3Chicago±0198% → 98%Playoffs
All results18 played
Final · Home16 AugPortland1Chicago▲ +1298% → 99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugCharlotte1Chicago±0295% → 95%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulNY City3Chicago±0198% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulMiami3Chicago▼ -1299% → 98%PlayoffsFinal · Home23 MayToronto1Chicago2Final · Away16 MayMontreal0Chicago2Final · Away13 MayDC1Chicago3Final · Home9 MayNY Red Bulls3Chicago1Final · Home2 MayCincinnati3Chicago2Final · Home25 AprSporting KC0Chicago5Final · Away18 AprCincinnati3Chicago3Final · Home11 AprAtlanta0Chicago1Final · Home4 AprNashville0Chicago1Final · Away21 MarPhiladelphia1Chicago2Final · Home14 MarDC2Chicago1Final · Away7 MarColumbus0Chicago0Final · Home28 FebMontreal0Chicago3Final · Away21 FebHouston2Chicago1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home74%

Chicago 51+ points

Round One
3ChicagoHome6New England

Alongside it: 1 Miami v Wild Card winner · 2 Nashville v 7 Orlando · 4 Cincinnati v 5 Charlotte

  1. 84% of this route

  2. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,353. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Miami70
2Nashville66
3Chicago58
4Cincinnati51
5Charlotte49
6New England49
7Orlando43
8Philadelphia42
9Toronto42
-DC41
-NY Red Bulls39
Reach Round One directly, on the road24%

Chicago 46+ points

Round One
4New EnglandHome5Chicago

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 Charlotte · 3 Cincinnati v 6 NY City

  1. 49% of this route

  2. 31% of this route

  3. 20% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,339. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville74
2Miami72
3Cincinnati55
4New England54
5Chicago49
6NY City47
7Charlotte46
8DC42
9Toronto41
-NY Red Bulls40
-Orlando39
Host the Wild Card game2%
Play the Wild Card game away1%

A possible long-shot route: 128 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Chicago 41+ points

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 76 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Chicago under 45 points