Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
12th by playoff odds32 clubs

Detroit

12th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs54%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTDetroit54%PlayoffsNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%NO 27%Win → 67% · Tie → 62% · Loss → 46%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division28%
Bye7%
Conference6%
Super Bowl2%

12th by playoff odds.

NFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 6th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTDetroit54%PlayoffsNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%NO 27%Win → 67% · Tie → 62% · Loss → 46%Playoffs

Upcoming

Thu 17 Sep · Away8:15 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 65%Tie <1%DET 35%54% → 56% – 74%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 83%Tie <1%NYJ 17%54% → 47% – 65%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away8:20 PM EDTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 43%Tie <1%DET 57%54% → 52% – 68%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%NO 27%54% → 46% – 67%PlayoffsThu 17 Sep · Away8:15 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 65%Tie <1%DET 35%54% → 56% – 74%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 83%Tie <1%NYJ 17%54% → 47% – 65%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away8:20 PM EDTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 43%Tie <1%DET 57%54% → 52% – 68%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 24%Tie <1%DET 75%54% → 51% – 67%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 60%Tie <1%GB 40%28% → 26% – 45%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 55%Tie <1%MIN 45%28% → 26% – 47%DivisionSun 8 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 42%Tie <1%DET 57%54% → 53% – 70%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home9:30 AM ESTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 45%Tie <1%NE 55%54% → 55% – 71%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 71%Tie <1%TB 29%54% → 51% – 68%PlayoffsThu 26 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 55%Tie <1%CHI 44%54% → 53% – 72%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 49%Tie <1%DET 50%54% → 56% – 73%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 84%Tie <1%TEN 16%54% → 52% – 68%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 59%Tie <1%DET 41%28% → 26% – 48%DivisionMon 28 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 80%Tie <1%NYG 20%54% → 51% – 67%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away4:25 PM ESTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 59%Tie <1%DET 41%54% → 54% – 73%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 54%Tie <1%DET 46%54% → 53% – 71%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye7%

Detroit 14+ wins

Divisional Round
1DetroitHomeWild Card Round winner4 Rams or 5 Seattle

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,488. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Detroit1520
2New Orleans1430
3Dallas1430
4Rams1340
5Seattle1160
6Minnesota1160
7Carolina1070
-Giants1070
-Philadelphia1070
Win the division, host a Wild Card game21%

Detroit 10.5+ wins

Wild Card Round
3DetroitHome6Dallas

Alongside it: 2 New Orleans v 7 Chicago · 4 Washington v 5 Rams

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,106. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Seattle1520
2New Orleans1430
3Detroit1241
4Washington890
5Rams1340
6Dallas890
7Chicago782
-Minnesota890
-49ers890
Wild Card berth, on the road26%

Detroit 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3MinnesotaHome6Detroit

Alongside it: 2 Dallas v 7 49ers · 4 New Orleans v 5 Washington

  1. 85% of this route

    • above GiantsGiants out of the postseason (>99%) · Giants 2+ games back (95%)

  2. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,471. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Rams1430
2Dallas1340
3Minnesota1160
4New Orleans1070
5Washington1250
6Detroit1160
749ers1160
-Tampa Bay971
-Atlanta7100
-Giants5120
-Arizona5120
Miss the postseason46%

Detroit under 10.5 wins

  1. 66% of this route

  2. 17% of this route

  3. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,042. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Rams1430
2Tampa Bay1250
3Philadelphia1250
4Green Bay1250
5Seattle1340
6Atlanta1160
7Minnesota1160
-Chicago1061
-49ers1070
-Detroit6101