Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
28th by playoff odds30 clubs

Atlanta

14th · 7-6-14 · 27 pts
Playoffs3%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
5

Lose the next 5 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Wed 21 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home · Their biggest game left7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 31%Draw 26%CIN 43%Win → 12% · Draw → 4% · Loss → 2%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home26 SepNY City2Atlanta▼ -124% → 3%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut
Supporters' ShieldOut
MLS Cup<1%

14th in the table · 28th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 14th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home · Their biggest game left7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 31%Draw 26%CIN 43%Win → 12% · Draw → 4% · Loss → 2%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 41%Draw 27%ATL 32%3% → 2% – 8%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 25%Draw 25%MIA 50%3% → 1% – 8%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 30%Draw 26%CHI 44%3% → 1% – 6%Playoffs
Full schedule7 to play
Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 31%Draw 26%CIN 43%3% → 2% – 12%PlayoffsWednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMTL 41%Draw 27%ATL 32%3% → 2% – 8%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 25%Draw 25%MIA 50%3% → 1% – 8%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 30%Draw 26%CHI 44%3% → 1% – 6%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 54%Draw 24%ATL 22%3% → 1% – 9%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home4:30 PM ESTToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 41%Draw 27%TOR 32%3% → 1% – 7%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 50%Draw 25%ATL 25%3% → 1% – 8%Playoffs

History

Final · Home26 SepNY City2Atlanta▼ -124% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepPortland0Atlanta▲ +211% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepDC0Atlanta±002% → 2%Playoffs
All results27 played
Final · Home26 SepNY City2Atlanta▼ -124% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 SepPortland0Atlanta▲ +211% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away12 SepDC0Atlanta±002% → 2%PlayoffsFinal · Home9 SepOrlando3Atlanta▼ -224% → 2%PlayoffsFinal · Away5 SepMiami2Atlanta±024% → 4%PlayoffsFinal · Home29 AugCharlotte2Atlanta▼ -409% → 5%PlayoffsFinal · Home23 AugSporting KC1Atlanta▲ +425% → 9%PlayoffsFinal · Away19 AugMinnesota1Atlanta▲ +521% → 6%PlayoffsFinal · Home15 AugNY Red Bulls1Atlanta±02<1% → <1%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugPhiladelphia3Atlanta±021% → 1%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulNew England4Atlanta▼ -113% → 2%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulCharlotte2Atlanta▲ +122% → 3%PlayoffsFinal · Away17 JulNashville1Atlanta0Final · Away24 MayColumbus2Atlanta0Final · Away16 MayOrlando1Atlanta1Final · Home9 MayLA Galaxy2Atlanta1Final · Home2 MayMontreal1Atlanta3Final · Away25 AprToronto1Atlanta2Final · Home22 AprNew England2Atlanta1Final · Home18 AprNashville2Atlanta0Final · Away11 AprChicago1Atlanta0Final · Home4 AprColumbus3Atlanta1Final · Home21 MarDC0Atlanta0Final · Home14 MarPhiladelphia1Atlanta3Final · Home7 MarSalt Lake3Atlanta2Final · Away28 FebSan Jose2Atlanta0Final · Away21 FebCincinnati2Atlanta0

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-10-07

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at homeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach Round One directly, on the road<1%

A possible long-shot route: 57 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Atlanta 43+ points

Host the Wild Card game1%
Play the Wild Card game away2%
Miss the postseason97%