Magic Number - Columbus Crew 2026

Playoffs11%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

6

Lose the next 6 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Wed 21 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away · Their biggest game left7:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 50%Draw 25%CLB 25%Win → 28% · Draw → 10% · Loss → 4%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home27 SepMiami1Columbus▲ +624% → 10%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

12th in the table · 25th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 13th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away · Their biggest game left7:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 50%Draw 25%CLB 25%Win → 28% · Draw → 10% · Loss → 4%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 35%Draw 27%CLT 38%11% → 6% – 23%Playoffs Sun 18 Oct · Away7:00 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%CLB 23%11% → 5% – 23%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home3:30 PM EDTToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 49%Draw 25%TOR 26%11% → 3% – 16%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 50%Draw 25%CLB 25%11% → 4% – 28%Playoffs Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 35%Draw 27%CLT 38%11% → 6% – 23%Playoffs Sun 18 Oct · Away7:00 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%CLB 23%11% → 5% – 23%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home3:30 PM EDTToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 49%Draw 25%TOR 26%11% → 3% – 16%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 57%Draw 23%CLB 20%11% → 6% – 23%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Home2:00 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 50%Draw 25%DC 25%11% → 2% – 17%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 54%Draw 24%CLB 22%11% → 6% – 22%Playoffs

History

Final · Home27 SepMiami1Columbus▲ +624% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepMontreal0Columbus▲ +221% → 3%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepNY Red Bulls1Columbus±005% → 5%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Home27 SepMiami1Columbus▲ +624% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepMontreal0Columbus▲ +221% → 3%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepNY Red Bulls1Columbus±005% → 5%Playoffs Final · Away9 SepDC2Columbus▼ -10115% → 5%Playoffs Final · Home5 SepColorado0Columbus▲ +4311% → 15%Playoffs Final · Home30 AugNew England3Columbus±0121% → 21%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugNashville3Columbus▼ -7226% → 19%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugMontreal2Columbus▼ -15141% → 26%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugCharlotte3Columbus±0150% → 50%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugMiami2Columbus▲ +1247% → 48%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulCincinnati1Columbus▼ -7242% → 35%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulNY City2Columbus▼ -12154% → 42%Playoffs Final · Home24 MayAtlanta0Columbus2 Final · Away16 MayPhiladelphia1Columbus1 Final · Away13 MayNY Red Bulls3Columbus2 Final · Away10 MayNY City3Columbus0 Final · Home2 MayMinnesota3Columbus2 Final · Home25 AprPhiladelphia0Columbus2 Final · Home22 AprLA Galaxy1Columbus2 Final · Away18 AprNew England2Columbus1 Final · Home12 AprOrlando1Columbus1 Final · Away4 AprAtlanta1Columbus3 Final · Away21 MarToronto2Columbus1 Final · Home14 MarNashville1Columbus0 Final · Home7 MarChicago0Columbus0 Final · Away28 FebSporting KC2Columbus2 Final · Away21 FebPortland3Columbus2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at homeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach Round One directly, on the road1%

Columbus 42+ points

Round One

2New EnglandHome7Columbus

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Miami v 6 Philadelphia · 4 Chicago v 5 Charlotte

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 283. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	73
2	New England	59
3	Miami	59
4	Chicago	57
5	Charlotte	54
6	Philadelphia	53
7	Columbus	45
8	Cincinnati	43
9	Orlando	42
-	NY Red Bulls	42
-	NY City	42

Host the Wild Card game3%

Columbus 41+ points

Wild Card

8ColumbusHome9NY City

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 634. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	75
2	Miami	63
3	New England	59
4	Chicago	54
5	Charlotte	50
6	Orlando	45
7	Philadelphia	45
8	Columbus	43
9	NY City	42
-	NY Red Bulls	41
-	Toronto	40

Play the Wild Card game away6%

Columbus 40+ points

Wild Card

8OrlandoHome9Columbus

73% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls out of the postseason (>99%) · NY Red Bulls under 43 points (94%)
27% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 49 points (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 918. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	78
2	New England	63
3	Miami	58
4	Philadelphia	52
5	Charlotte	51
6	Chicago	49
7	NY City	46
8	Orlando	45
9	Columbus	42
-	NY Red Bulls	39
-	Cincinnati	39
-	DC	38

Miss the postseason89%

Columbus under 41 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 17,830. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	79
2	Miami	58
3	Chicago	55
4	Charlotte	52
5	New England	52
6	Philadelphia	49
7	Cincinnati	48
8	NY Red Bulls	47
9	NY City	45
-	Orlando	40
-	Toronto	38
-	Columbus	37