Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
23th by playoff odds30 clubs

DC

9th · 5-9-6 · 24 pts
Playoffs27%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
14

Win the next 14 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
14

Lose the next 14 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 57%Draw 23%DC 20%Win → 37% · Draw → 25% · Loss → 21%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home19 AugNew England3DC▼ -11038% → 27%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%

9th in the table · 23th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 12th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 57%Draw 23%DC 20%Win → 37% · Draw → 25% · Loss → 21%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 29%Draw 26%LAFC 45%27% → 19% – 37%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 62%Draw 21%DC 17%27% → 22% – 41%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 38%Draw 27%CLB 35%27% → 16% – 37%Playoffs
Full schedule14 to play
Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 57%Draw 23%DC 20%27% → 21% – 37%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 29%Draw 26%LAFC 45%27% → 19% – 37%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 62%Draw 21%DC 17%27% → 22% – 41%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 38%Draw 27%CLB 35%27% → 16% – 37%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 49%Draw 25%ATL 26%27% → 17% – 35%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 33%Draw 27%CLT 40%27% → 18% – 37%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 66%Draw 19%DC 15%27% → 22% – 41%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 69%Draw 18%DC 13%27% → 22% – 42%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 42%Draw 26%RBNY 32%27% → 15% – 36%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTOrlando60%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 54%Draw 24%DC 22%27% → 19% – 43%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 28%Draw 26%CIN 46%27% → 21% – 41%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 45%Draw 26%DC 29%27% → 19% – 41%PlayoffsSat 31 Oct · Away2:00 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 51%Draw 25%DC 24%27% → 20% – 43%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 35%Draw 27%NYC 38%27% → 22% – 41%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugNew England3DC▼ -11038% → 27%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugMontreal1DC±0135% → 35%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugNashville2DC±0237% → 37%Playoffs
All results20 played
Final · Home19 AugNew England3DC▼ -11038% → 27%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugMontreal1DC±0135% → 35%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugNashville2DC±0237% → 37%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulToronto1DC▼ -7235% → 28%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulHouston1DC▲ +5130% → 35%PlayoffsFinal · Home23 MayMontreal4DC4Final · Home16 MaySt. Louis1DC1Final · Home13 MayChicago3DC1Final · Away9 MayNashville2DC2Final · Away3 MayNY City0DC2Final · Home25 AprOrlando2DC3Final · Away22 AprNY Red Bulls4DC4Final · Away18 AprPhiladelphia0DC0Final · Away11 AprNew England1DC0Final · Home4 AprDallas4DC0Final · Away21 MarAtlanta0DC0Final · Away14 MarChicago1DC2Final · Home7 MarMiami2DC1Final · Away1 MarAustin1DC0Final · Home21 FebPhiladelphia0DC1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 71 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

DC 49+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road8%

DC 44+ points

Round One
3ChicagoHome6DC

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 Cincinnati · 4 Charlotte v 5 New England

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,642. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville77
2Miami67
3Chicago58
4Charlotte54
5New England48
6DC47
7Cincinnati46
8Orlando41
9NY Red Bulls41
-Columbus41
-Philadelphia40
Host the Wild Card game8%

DC 42+ points

Wild Card
8DCHome9Columbus

  1. 80% of this route

  2. 20% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,272. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville81
2Miami64
3Chicago58
4Charlotte53
5New England49
6NY City45
7Toronto45
8DC44
9Columbus43
-Philadelphia39
-NY Red Bulls39
Play the Wild Card game away11%

DC 40+ points

Wild Card
8TorontoHome9DC

  1. 64% of this route

    • above ColumbusColumbus out of the postseason (>99%) · Columbus 2+ points back (91%)
    • above PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia out of the postseason (>99%) · Philadelphia 1+ point back (>99%)

  2. 24% of this route

  3. 12% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,396. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville78
2Miami70
3Cincinnati56
4Chicago53
5Charlotte51
6New England50
7NY City48
8Toronto43
9DC42
-Orlando38
-Philadelphia37
-Columbus36
Miss the postseason73%

DC under 43 points

  1. 61% of this route

  2. 23% of this route

  3. 16% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,912. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville76
2Miami67
3New England62
4Chicago60
5Charlotte49
6Cincinnati46
7NY City45
8NY Red Bulls43
9Philadelphia42
-Orlando36
-Montreal36
-DC36