Magic Number - FC Cincinnati 2026

Playoffs81%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

8

Win the next 8 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 31%Draw 26%CIN 43%Win → 88% · Draw → 78% · Loss → 67%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepMontreal3Cincinnati▼ -8188% → 80%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup1%

10th in the table · 14th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 7th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 31%Draw 26%CIN 43%Win → 88% · Draw → 78% · Loss → 67%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 49%Draw 25%NE 26%81% → 70% – 91%Playoffs Sun 18 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%CLB 23%81% → 66% – 91%Playoffs Wed 21 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 59%Draw 22%DC 19%81% → 65% – 90%Playoffs

Full schedule8 to play

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 31%Draw 26%CIN 43%81% → 67% – 88%Playoffs Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 49%Draw 25%NE 26%81% → 70% – 91%Playoffs Sun 18 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 53%Draw 24%CLB 23%81% → 66% – 91%Playoffs Wed 21 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 59%Draw 22%DC 19%81% → 65% – 90%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 32%Draw 27%CIN 41%81% → 68% – 91%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 53%Draw 24%CIN 23%81% → 75% – 93%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Home2:00 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 41%Draw 27%PHI 32%81% → 73% – 93%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTNashvilleClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultCIN 35%Draw 27%NSH 38%81% → 75% – 93%Playoffs

History

Final · Away26 SepMontreal3Cincinnati▼ -8188% → 80%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepHouston2Cincinnati▼ -2290% → 88%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepCharlotte3Cincinnati±0392% → 92%Playoffs

All results26 played

Final · Away26 SepMontreal3Cincinnati▼ -8188% → 80%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepHouston2Cincinnati▼ -2290% → 88%Playoffs Final · Home12 SepCharlotte3Cincinnati±0392% → 92%Playoffs Final · Away9 SepPhiladelphia5Cincinnati▼ -6097% → 91%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugNashville4Cincinnati▼ -1098% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home22 AugSeattle1Cincinnati▼ -1199% → 98%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugNY City1Cincinnati▲ +4295% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugOrlando1Cincinnati±0195% → 95%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugSan Jose2Cincinnati▲ +1490% → 91%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulColumbus2Cincinnati±0197% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulVancouver3Cincinnati▲ +5492% → 97%Playoffs Final · Home23 MayOrlando2Cincinnati6 Final · Away16 MaySan Diego3Cincinnati3 Final · Home13 MayMiami5Cincinnati3 Final · Away9 MayCharlotte2Cincinnati2 Final · Away2 MayChicago2Cincinnati3 Final · Home25 AprNY Red Bulls0Cincinnati2 Final · Away22 AprNY City4Cincinnati4 Final · Home18 AprChicago3Cincinnati3 Final · Away11 AprToronto1Cincinnati1 Final · Away4 AprNY Red Bulls4Cincinnati2 Final · Home22 MarMontreal3Cincinnati4 Final · Away15 MarNew England6Cincinnati1 Final · Home8 MarToronto1Cincinnati0 Final · Away28 FebMinnesota1Cincinnati0 Final · Home21 FebAtlanta0Cincinnati2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home1%

A possible long-shot route: 190 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Cincinnati 52+ points

Round One

3CincinnatiHome6Philadelphia

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 Chicago · 4 New England v 5 Charlotte

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 190. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	67
2	Miami	57
3	Cincinnati	54
4	New England	53
5	Charlotte	51
6	Philadelphia	50
7	Chicago	49
8	Orlando	48
9	NY City	47
-	Toronto	42
-	NY Red Bulls	42

Reach Round One directly, on the road42%

Cincinnati 45+ points

Round One

3ChicagoHome6Cincinnati

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 New England v 7 Miami · 4 Philadelphia v 5 Charlotte

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,323. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	69
2	New England	64
3	Chicago	53
4	Philadelphia	52
5	Charlotte	49
6	Cincinnati	48
7	Miami	48
8	NY Red Bulls	45
9	DC	44
-	Orlando	43
-	NY City	42

Host the Wild Card game23%

Cincinnati 43+ points

Wild Card

8CincinnatiHome9NY City

57% of this route
- below OrlandoOrlando under 51 points (92%)
43% of this route
- above OrlandoOrlando 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,625. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	73
2	Chicago	59
3	Miami	59
4	New England	54
5	Philadelphia	50
6	Charlotte	50
7	Orlando	47
8	Cincinnati	45
9	NY City	41
-	Toronto	38
-	NY Red Bulls	38

Play the Wild Card game away16%

Cincinnati 41+ points

Wild Card

8NY Red BullsHome9Cincinnati

44% of this route
- below OrlandoOrlando under 51 points (95%)
- above NY CityNY City out of the postseason (>99%) · NY City 1+ point back (98%)
34% of this route
- below OrlandoOrlando under 51 points (95%)
- below NY CityNY City under 50 points (95%)
22% of this route
- above OrlandoOrlando out of the postseason (>99%) · Orlando 1+ point back (>99%)
- below NY CityNY City under 50 points (95%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,357. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	68
2	New England	59
3	Chicago	55
4	Miami	55
5	Charlotte	52
6	Philadelphia	49
7	Orlando	46
8	NY Red Bulls	43
9	Cincinnati	43
-	Toronto	40
-	NY City	40

Miss the postseason19%

Cincinnati under 44 points

69% of this route
- below NY CityNY City under 48 points (90%)
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 48 points (92%)
17% of this route
- below NY CityNY City under 48 points (90%)
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)
14% of this route
- above NY CityNY City 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,614. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	68
2	New England	60
3	Miami	59
4	Charlotte	52
5	Chicago	50
6	Philadelphia	49
7	NY City	44
8	NY Red Bulls	44
9	Atlanta	41
-	DC	40
-	Cincinnati	40