Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
2nd by playoff odds30 clubs

Miami

2nd · 11-6-3 · 39 pts
Playoffs>99%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
9

Win the next 9 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 69%Draw 18%TOR 13%Win → 28% · Draw → 18% · Loss → 15%Conference
Last resultFinal · Away19 AugPhiladelphia2Miami±02>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference24%
Supporters' Shield18%
MLS Cup24%

2nd in the table · 2nd by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 2nd. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 69%Draw 18%TOR 13%Win → 28% · Draw → 18% · Loss → 15%Conference

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 71%Draw 17%MTL 12%24% → 14% – 27%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 73%Draw 16%ATL 11%24% → 13% – 24%ConferenceWed 9 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 33%Draw 27%MIA 40%24% → 17% – 31%Conference
Full schedule14 to play
Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 69%Draw 18%TOR 13%24% → 15% – 28%ConferenceSat 29 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTMontreal8%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 71%Draw 17%MTL 12%24% → 14% – 27%ConferenceSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 73%Draw 16%ATL 11%24% → 13% – 24%ConferenceWed 9 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 33%Draw 27%MIA 40%24% → 17% – 31%ConferenceSat 12 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 49%Draw 25%NSH 26%24% → 10% – 36%ConferenceSun 20 Sep · Home7:00 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 59%Draw 22%SD 19%24% → 15% – 28%ConferenceSun 27 Sep · Away7:00 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 27%Draw 26%MIA 47%24% → 16% – 29%ConferenceSat 10 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 69%Draw 18%DC 13%24% → 13% – 25%ConferenceWed 14 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 60%Draw 22%NYC 18%24% → 14% – 28%ConferenceSat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 20%Draw 23%MIA 57%24% → 13% – 27%ConferenceSat 24 Oct · Away5:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 25%Draw 25%MIA 50%24% → 15% – 29%ConferenceWed 28 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTCincinnati99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 53%Draw 24%CIN 23%24% → 14% – 29%ConferenceSun 1 Nov · Away7:00 PM ESTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 26%Draw 25%MIA 49%24% → 13% – 30%ConferenceSat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 57%Draw 23%CLT 20%24% → 11% – 28%Conference

History

Final · Away19 AugPhiladelphia2Miami±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugNashville4Miami±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugColumbus2Miami±02>99% → >99%Playoffs
All results20 played
Final · Away19 AugPhiladelphia2Miami±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away15 AugNashville4Miami±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugColumbus2Miami±02>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Away25 JulMontreal0Miami±01>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulChicago2Miami±03>99% → >99%PlayoffsFinal · Home24 MayPhiladelphia4Miami6Final · Home17 MayPortland0Miami2Final · Away13 MayCincinnati3Miami5Final · Away9 MayToronto2Miami4Final · Home2 MayOrlando4Miami3Final · Home25 AprNew England1Miami1Final · Away22 AprSalt Lake0Miami2Final · Away18 AprColorado2Miami3Final · Home11 AprNY Red Bulls2Miami2Final · Home4 AprAustin2Miami2Final · Away22 MarNY City2Miami3Final · Away14 MarCharlotte0Miami0Final · Away7 MarDC1Miami2Final · Away1 MarOrlando2Miami4Final · Away21 FebLAFC3Miami0

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home>99%

Miami 60+ points

Round One
2MiamiHome7NY Red Bulls

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 New England v 6 Charlotte · 4 Chicago v 5 Cincinnati

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 19,922. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville71
2Miami66
3New England55
4Chicago53
5Cincinnati48
6Charlotte48
7NY Red Bulls45
8Columbus41
9Toronto41
-NY City40
-Orlando38
Reach Round One directly, on the road<1%

A possible long-shot route: 78 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Miami 51+ points

Host the Wild Card gameNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Play the Wild Card game awayNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Miss the postseasonNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.