Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
16th by playoff odds30 clubs

Orlando

10th · 6-3-10 · 21 pts
Playoffs60%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
15

Win the next 15 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
14

Lose the next 14 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upWed 19 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTOrlando60%PlayoffsChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 40%Draw 27%CHI 33%Win → 70% · Draw → 56% · Loss → 49%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home15 AugCincinnati1Orlando±0155% → 55%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%

10th in the table · 16th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 8th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Wed 19 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTOrlando60%PlayoffsChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 40%Draw 27%CHI 33%Win → 70% · Draw → 56% · Loss → 49%Playoffs

Upcoming

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 44%Draw 26%RSL 30%60% → 46% – 68%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 46%Draw 26%ORL 28%60% → 50% – 72%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 42%Draw 26%SD 32%60% → 48% – 69%Playoffs
Full schedule15 to play
Wed 19 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 40%Draw 27%CHI 33%60% → 49% – 70%PlayoffsSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 44%Draw 26%RSL 30%60% → 46% – 68%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Away8:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 46%Draw 26%ORL 28%60% → 50% – 72%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 42%Draw 26%SD 32%60% → 48% – 69%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 33%Draw 27%ORL 40%60% → 50% – 71%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 53%Draw 24%TOR 23%60% → 47% – 69%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 42%Draw 26%ORL 32%60% → 51% – 71%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 45%Draw 26%ORL 29%60% → 51% – 74%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 47%Draw 26%CLB 27%60% → 44% – 68%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 37%Draw 27%ORL 36%60% → 47% – 70%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 54%Draw 24%DC 22%60% → 40% – 65%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 44%Draw 26%NYC 30%60% → 45% – 67%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 49%Draw 25%ORL 26%60% → 51% – 70%PlayoffsSat 31 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultCLT 49%Draw 25%ORL 26%60% → 51% – 71%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 49%Draw 25%NE 26%60% → 47% – 64%Playoffs

History

Final · Home15 AugCincinnati1Orlando±0155% → 55%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugNY Red Bulls3Orlando±0269% → 69%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulNashville0Orlando▲ +25133% → 58%Playoffs
All results19 played
Final · Home15 AugCincinnati1Orlando±0155% → 55%PlayoffsFinal · Away1 AugNY Red Bulls3Orlando±0269% → 69%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulNashville0Orlando▲ +25133% → 58%PlayoffsFinal · Away22 JulSan Jose0Orlando▼ -4437% → 33%PlayoffsFinal · Away23 MayCincinnati6Orlando2Final · Home16 MayAtlanta1Orlando1Final · Home13 MayPhiladelphia3Orlando4Final · Away9 MayMontreal2Orlando0Final · Away2 MayMiami3Orlando4Final · Away25 AprDC3Orlando2Final · Home22 AprCharlotte1Orlando4Final · Home18 AprHouston1Orlando0Final · Away12 AprColumbus1Orlando1Final · Away4 AprLAFC6Orlando0Final · Away21 MarNashville5Orlando0Final · Home14 MarMontreal1Orlando2Final · Away7 MarNY City5Orlando0Final · Home1 MarMiami4Orlando2Final · Home21 FebNY Red Bulls2Orlando1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 22 Jul: 37% to 48%2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home3%

Orlando 50+ points

Round One
3OrlandoHome6New England

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Chicago v 7 Charlotte · 4 Miami v 5 Cincinnati

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 660. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville70
2Chicago62
3Orlando53
4Miami51
5Cincinnati51
6New England48
7Charlotte48
8Columbus44
9NY City42
-Philadelphia39
-Montreal39
Reach Round One directly, on the road27%

Orlando 44+ points

Round One
2ChicagoHome7Orlando

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Miami v 6 Charlotte · 4 New England v 5 Cincinnati

  1. 77% of this route

  2. 23% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,130. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville70
2Chicago60
3Miami60
4New England53
5Cincinnati51
6Charlotte48
7Orlando48
8NY City43
9Toronto43
-NY Red Bulls41
-DC40
Host the Wild Card game15%
Play the Wild Card game away14%

Orlando 40+ points

Wild Card
8CincinnatiHome9Orlando

  1. 83% of this route

  2. 17% of this route

    • above NY CityNY City out of the postseason (>99%) · NY City under 43 points (90%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,389. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Nashville76
2Miami68
3Chicago51
4Charlotte51
5NY City48
6Philadelphia47
7NY Red Bulls46
8Cincinnati46
9Orlando42
-Columbus41
-New England40
-Toronto36
Miss the postseason40%

Orlando under 43 points

  1. 59% of this route

  2. 23% of this route

  3. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,809. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Miami73
2Nashville67
3Charlotte59
4Cincinnati54
5NY City51
6Chicago48
7Toronto47
8NY Red Bulls43
9New England42
-Philadelphia42
-Columbus38
-Orlando37