Magic Number - Philadelphia Union 2026

Playoffs99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

6

Win the next 6 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsSalt Lake19%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 59%Draw 22%RSL 19%Win → 99% · Draw → 99% · Loss → 98%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home26 SepOrlando2Philadelphia▲ +4495% → 99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup4%

6th in the table · 11th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 6th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsSalt Lake19%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 59%Draw 22%RSL 19%Win → 99% · Draw → 99% · Loss → 98%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away8:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 43%Draw 26%PHI 31%99% → 98% – >99%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home2:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 46%Draw 26%CLT 28%99% → 98% – >99%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 53%Draw 24%NE 23%99% → 98% – >99%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTSalt Lake19%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 59%Draw 22%RSL 19%99% → 98% – 99%Playoffs Wednesday · Away8:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 43%Draw 26%PHI 31%99% → 98% – >99%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home2:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 46%Draw 26%CLT 28%99% → 98% – >99%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTNew England>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 53%Draw 24%NE 23%99% → 98% – >99%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTNashvilleClinchedPlayoffsMatch resultNSH 51%Draw 25%PHI 24%99% → 99% – >99%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Away2:00 PM EDTCincinnati81%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 41%Draw 27%PHI 32%99% → 99% – >99%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTToronto11%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%Draw 22%TOR 18%99% → 99% – 100%Playoffs

History

Final · Home26 SepOrlando2Philadelphia▲ +4495% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepSporting KC3Philadelphia▲ +22473% → 95%Playoffs Final · Away13 SepSan Diego0Philadelphia▲ +22573% → 95%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Home26 SepOrlando2Philadelphia▲ +4495% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepSporting KC3Philadelphia▲ +22473% → 95%Playoffs Final · Away13 SepSan Diego0Philadelphia▲ +22573% → 95%Playoffs Final · Home9 SepCincinnati0Philadelphia▲ +12563% → 75%Playoffs Final · Home5 SepMontreal0Philadelphia▲ +9254% → 63%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugNY Red Bulls1Philadelphia▲ +20333% → 53%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugAustin1Philadelphia±0136% → 36%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugMiami2Philadelphia▲ +3233% → 36%Playoffs Final · Away16 AugNY City2Philadelphia▲ +16317% → 33%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugAtlanta2Philadelphia▲ +1310% → 11%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulSeattle0Philadelphia▼ -218% → 6%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulNY Red Bulls1Philadelphia▲ +434% → 8%Playoffs Final · Away24 MayMiami6Philadelphia4 Final · Home16 MayColumbus1Philadelphia1 Final · Away13 MayOrlando4Philadelphia3 Final · Away9 MayNew England2Philadelphia1 Final · Home2 MayNashville0Philadelphia0 Final · Away25 AprColumbus2Philadelphia0 Final · Away22 AprToronto3Philadelphia3 Final · Home18 AprDC0Philadelphia0 Final · Away11 AprMontreal1Philadelphia2 Final · Away4 AprCharlotte2Philadelphia1 Final · Home21 MarChicago2Philadelphia1 Final · Away14 MarAtlanta3Philadelphia1 Final · Home7 MarSan Jose1Philadelphia0 Final · Home1 MarNY City2Philadelphia1 Final · Away21 FebDC1Philadelphia0

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home15%

Philadelphia 52+ points

Round One

4PhiladelphiaHome5New England

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Chicago v 7 Cincinnati · 3 Miami v 6 Charlotte

68% of this route
- above New EnglandNew England under 56 points (95%)
32% of this route
- below New EnglandNew England under 62 points (95%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,022. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	66
2	Chicago	59
3	Miami	58
4	Philadelphia	55
5	New England	52
6	Charlotte	52
7	Cincinnati	47
8	NY City	46
9	Orlando	42
-	Toronto	42
-	NY Red Bulls	41

Reach Round One directly, on the road75%

Round One

3New EnglandHome6Philadelphia

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 Cincinnati · 4 Charlotte v 5 Chicago

82% of this route
- Philadelphia 46+ points
- below CharlotteCharlotte under 59 points (90%)
18% of this route
- Philadelphia 49+ points
- above CharlotteCharlotte under 53 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 12,324. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	73
2	Miami	56
3	New England	55
4	Charlotte	55
5	Chicago	54
6	Philadelphia	49
7	Cincinnati	46
8	Toronto	42
9	Orlando	41
-	NY City	41
-	NY Red Bulls	40

Host the Wild Card game7%

Philadelphia 43+ points

Wild Card

8PhiladelphiaHome9DC

49% of this route
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 53 points (94%)
- below OrlandoOrlando under 52 points (93%)
29% of this route
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 53 points (94%)
- above OrlandoOrlando 1+ point back (97%)
21% of this route
- above CincinnatiCincinnati under 47 points (96%)
- below OrlandoOrlando under 51 points (94%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 658. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	76
2	New England	59
3	Chicago	56
4	Miami	52
5	Charlotte	51
6	Cincinnati	49
7	Orlando	48
8	Philadelphia	46
9	DC	42
-	NY Red Bulls	40
-	Toronto	38

Play the Wild Card game away2%

Philadelphia 42+ points

Wild Card

8OrlandoHome9Philadelphia

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 478. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	77
2	Miami	59
3	Chicago	54
4	New England	51
5	Charlotte	51
6	Cincinnati	48
7	NY Red Bulls	46
8	Orlando	45
9	Philadelphia	44
-	NY City	44
-	Columbus	41

Miss the postseason1%

A possible long-shot route: 173 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Philadelphia under 45 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 173. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	76
2	New England	57
3	Charlotte	55
4	Miami	52
5	Chicago	50
6	NY City	47
7	Cincinnati	47
8	Orlando	45
9	NY Red Bulls	42
-	Philadelphia	42
-	Toronto	40