Magic Number.
MLS · 2026
19th by playoff odds30 clubs

Portland

10th · 7-3-9 · 24 pts
Playoffs49%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
15

Win the next 15 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
14

Lose the next 14 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upWed 19 Aug · Home · Their biggest game left10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 39%Draw 27%SD 34%Win → 61% · Draw → 40% · Loss → 34%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away16 AugChicago2Portland▼ -15160% → 45%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%
Supporters' Shield<1%
MLS Cup<1%

10th in the table · 19th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish
1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 11th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Wed 19 Aug · Home · Their biggest game left10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 39%Draw 27%SD 34%Win → 61% · Draw → 40% · Loss → 34%Playoffs

Upcoming

Saturday · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 56%Draw 23%POR 21%49% → 40% – 61%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home10:30 PM EDTAustin1%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 53%Draw 24%ATX 23%49% → 36% – 57%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 43%Draw 26%MIN 31%49% → 37% – 61%Playoffs
Full schedule15 to play
Wed 19 Aug · Home10:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 39%Draw 27%SD 34%49% → 34% – 61%PlayoffsSaturday · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 56%Draw 23%POR 21%49% → 40% – 61%PlayoffsSat 29 Aug · Home10:30 PM EDTAustin1%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 53%Draw 24%ATX 23%49% → 36% – 57%PlayoffsSat 5 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 43%Draw 26%MIN 31%49% → 37% – 61%PlayoffsWed 9 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 45%Draw 26%STL 29%49% → 38% – 60%PlayoffsSat 12 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 50%Draw 25%POR 25%49% → 42% – 63%PlayoffsSat 19 Sep · Home10:30 PM EDTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 56%Draw 23%ATL 21%49% → 36% – 56%PlayoffsSat 26 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Jose91%PlayoffsMatch resultSJ 45%Draw 26%POR 29%49% → 43% – 64%PlayoffsSat 10 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 30%Draw 26%POR 44%49% → 38% – 60%PlayoffsWed 14 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy9%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 40%Draw 27%POR 33%49% → 41% – 64%PlayoffsSat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTColorado37%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 49%Draw 25%COL 26%49% → 37% – 61%PlayoffsSat 24 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTCharlotte95%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 39%Draw 27%CLT 34%49% → 42% – 64%PlayoffsWed 28 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 45%Draw 26%POR 29%49% → 42% – 68%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home9:00 PM ESTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%49% → 42% – 64%PlayoffsSat 7 Nov · Away7:00 PM ESTAustin1%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 38%Draw 27%POR 35%49% → 40% – 62%Playoffs

History

Final · Away16 AugChicago2Portland▼ -15160% → 45%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugSeattle1Portland±0246% → 46%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulSalt Lake1Portland▼ -13237% → 24%Playoffs
All results19 played
Final · Away16 AugChicago2Portland▼ -15160% → 45%PlayoffsFinal · Home1 AugSeattle1Portland±0246% → 46%PlayoffsFinal · Home25 JulSalt Lake1Portland▼ -13237% → 24%PlayoffsFinal · Home22 JulDallas2Portland±0234% → 34%PlayoffsFinal · Away16 JulSeattle1Portland5Final · Home23 MaySan Jose3Portland1Final · Away17 MayMiami2Portland0Final · Away13 MayMontreal2Portland2Final · Home9 MaySporting KC0Portland6Final · Away2 MaySalt Lake2Portland0Final · Away25 AprSan Diego1Portland2Final · Away18 AprMinnesota2Portland0Final · Home11 AprLAFC1Portland2Final · Away4 AprVancouver3Portland2Final · Home22 MarLA Galaxy1Portland1Final · Away14 MarHouston3Portland2Final · Home7 MarVancouver4Portland1Final · Away28 FebColorado2Portland0Final · Home21 FebColumbus2Portland3

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-02-232026-08-20

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home5%

Portland 52+ points

Round One
4PortlandHome5Dallas

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 LAFC v 7 Salt Lake · 3 Houston v 6 San Jose

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,016. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver65
2LAFC64
3Houston59
4Portland55
5Dallas54
6San Jose50
7Salt Lake50
8Colorado49
9Seattle48
-St. Louis48
-Minnesota41
Reach Round One directly, on the road21%

Portland 47+ points

Round One
4DallasHome5Portland

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 Houston v 7 Minnesota · 3 Salt Lake v 6 LAFC

  1. 76% of this route

  2. 24% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,142. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver65
2Houston60
3Salt Lake59
4Dallas59
5Portland50
6LAFC50
7Minnesota50
8San Diego46
9St. Louis46
-San Jose41
-Seattle40
Host the Wild Card game11%

Portland 45+ points

Wild Card
8PortlandHome9Seattle

  1. 63% of this route

  2. 20% of this route

  3. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,364. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver70
2LAFC59
3Houston54
4Dallas54
5San Diego53
6St. Louis50
7San Jose49
8Portland47
9Seattle45
-Salt Lake44
-Minnesota43
-Colorado41
Play the Wild Card game away12%

Portland 43+ points

Wild Card
8San JoseHome9Portland

  1. 67% of this route

    • above MinnesotaMinnesota out of the postseason (>99%) · Minnesota under 47 points (95%)

  2. 33% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,634. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Vancouver76
2Houston60
3Seattle54
4Salt Lake54
5St. Louis52
6LAFC52
7Dallas52
8San Jose47
9Portland46
-Colorado42
-Minnesota42
-LA Galaxy39
Miss the postseason51%

Portland under 47 points

  1. 79% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 8,176. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubPts
1Houston64
2Vancouver64
3San Jose55
4Colorado52
5LAFC51
6Dallas51
7St. Louis51
8Salt Lake50
9Seattle47
-Minnesota47
-San Diego47
-Portland41