Magic Number - Portland Timbers 2026

Playoffs24%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

6

Lose the next 6 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away8:30 PM EDTPortland24%PlayoffsSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 33%Draw 27%POR 40%Win → 34% · Draw → 20% · Loss → 10%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepSan Jose3Portland±0138% → 38%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

10th in the table · 21th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 12th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away8:30 PM EDTPortland24%PlayoffsSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 33%Draw 27%POR 40%Win → 34% · Draw → 20% · Loss → 10%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away10:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 47%Draw 26%POR 27%24% → 10% – 40%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 45%Draw 26%COL 29%24% → 9% – 34%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 34%Draw 27%CLT 39%24% → 12% – 34%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSKC 33%Draw 27%POR 40%24% → 10% – 34%Playoffs Wednesday · Away10:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 47%Draw 26%POR 27%24% → 10% – 40%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 45%Draw 26%COL 29%24% → 9% – 34%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTCharlotte>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 34%Draw 27%CLT 39%24% → 12% – 34%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 56%Draw 23%POR 21%24% → 14% – 38%Playoffs Sun 1 Nov · Home9:30 PM ESTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%24% → 12% – 33%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Away7:00 PM ESTAustin15%PlayoffsMatch resultATX 46%Draw 26%POR 28%24% → 13% – 39%Playoffs

History

Final · Away26 SepSan Jose3Portland±0138% → 38%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepAtlanta1Portland▼ -17057% → 40%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepDallas2Portland▼ -6166% → 60%Playoffs

All results27 played

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 4 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Portland 51+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road5%

Portland 45+ points

Round One

2DallasHome7Portland

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 3 St. Louis v 6 LAFC · 4 San Jose v 5 Houston

83% of this route
- above SeattleSeattle under 49 points (95%)
17% of this route
- below SeattleSeattle under 55 points (96%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 817. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	64
2	Dallas	59
3	St. Louis	57
4	San Jose	52
5	Houston	51
6	LAFC	50
7	Portland	47
8	LA Galaxy	46
9	Salt Lake	45
-	Seattle	45
-	Colorado	43

Host the Wild Card game8%

Portland 43+ points

Wild Card

8PortlandHome9Minnesota

81% of this route
- above ColoradoColorado 1+ point back (94%)
19% of this route
- above LA GalaxyLA Galaxy under 46 points (92%)
- below ColoradoColorado under 51 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,319. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	61
2	Vancouver	59
3	St. Louis	54
4	LAFC	53
5	San Jose	52
6	Seattle	51
7	Houston	46
8	Portland	45
9	Minnesota	45
-	LA Galaxy	43
-	Salt Lake	42
-	Colorado	42

Play the Wild Card game away11%

Portland 42+ points

Wild Card

8SeattleHome9Portland

85% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego out of the postseason (>99%) · San Diego 1+ point back (90%)
15% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 50 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,878. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	61
2	St. Louis	60
3	Vancouver	55
4	LAFC	52
5	San Jose	50
6	Houston	50
7	LA Galaxy	49
8	Seattle	47
9	Portland	44
-	Colorado	41
-	Minnesota	40
-	Austin	40
-	San Diego	40

Miss the postseason76%

Portland under 45 points

74% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 48 points (93%)
26% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 11,231. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	60
2	LAFC	57
3	Dallas	55
4	St. Louis	55
5	San Jose	53
6	Houston	52
7	Colorado	45
8	LA Galaxy	44
9	San Diego	43
-	Seattle	43
-	Minnesota	42
-	Portland	39