Magic Number - San Diego 2026

Playoffs28%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

6

Lose the next 6 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Away7:30 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 39%Draw 27%SD 34%Win → 48% · Draw → 24% · Loss → 17%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepAustin3San Diego▼ -5334% → 29%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

12th in the table · 20th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 11th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 39%Draw 27%SD 34%Win → 48% · Draw → 24% · Loss → 17%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home10:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 44%Draw 26%HOU 30%28% → 15% – 40%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 43%Draw 26%SD 31%28% → 13% – 50%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 43%Draw 26%SEA 31%28% → 15% – 45%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 39%Draw 27%SD 34%28% → 17% – 48%Playoffs Wednesday · Home10:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 44%Draw 26%HOU 30%28% → 15% – 40%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTLA Galaxy53%PlayoffsMatch resultLA 43%Draw 26%SD 31%28% → 13% – 50%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home10:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 43%Draw 26%SEA 31%28% → 15% – 45%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 53%Draw 24%SD 23%28% → 20% – 49%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Away3:00 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 50%Draw 25%SD 25%28% → 19% – 47%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 62%Draw 21%SKC 17%28% → 12% – 36%Playoffs

History

Final · Away26 SepAustin3San Diego▼ -5334% → 29%Playoffs Final · Away20 SepMiami2San Diego±0233% → 33%Playoffs Final · Home13 SepPhiladelphia5San Diego▼ -13046% → 33%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Away26 SepAustin3San Diego▼ -5334% → 29%Playoffs Final · Away20 SepMiami2San Diego±0233% → 33%Playoffs Final · Home13 SepPhiladelphia5San Diego▼ -13046% → 33%Playoffs Final · Home9 SepSan Jose3San Diego±0262% → 62%Playoffs Final · Away5 SepOrlando1San Diego▼ -9070% → 61%Playoffs Final · Home29 AugLA Galaxy1San Diego±0356% → 56%Playoffs Final · Home22 AugColorado0San Diego±0342% → 42%Playoffs Final · Away19 AugPortland3San Diego±0156% → 56%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugLAFC0San Diego±0134% → 34%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugMinnesota1San Diego±0135% → 35%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulDallas0San Diego▲ +9130% → 39%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulColorado1San Diego±0036% → 36%Playoffs Final · Home23 MayVancouver4San Diego2 Final · Home16 MayCincinnati3San Diego3 Final · Home13 MayAustin0San Diego5 Final · Away9 MaySeattle1San Diego1 Final · Home2 MayLAFC2San Diego2 Final · Home25 AprPortland2San Diego1 Final · Away22 AprHouston1San Diego0 Final · Away18 AprSalt Lake4San Diego2 Final · Home11 AprMinnesota2San Diego1 Final · Away4 AprSan Jose3San Diego0 Final · Home22 MarSalt Lake2San Diego2 Final · Away14 MarDallas3San Diego3 Final · Away7 MarSporting KC0San Diego1 Final · Home1 MarSt. Louis0San Diego2 Final · Home21 FebMontreal0San Diego5

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 5 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

San Diego 51+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road6%

San Diego 45+ points

Round One

2St. LouisHome7San Diego

Alongside it: 1 Dallas v Wild Card winner · 3 Vancouver v 6 San Jose · 4 Houston v 5 LAFC

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,269. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	64
2	St. Louis	61
3	Vancouver	57
4	Houston	50
5	LAFC	50
6	San Jose	48
7	San Diego	48
8	Seattle	45
9	Minnesota	45
-	Salt Lake	43
-	Colorado	43

Host the Wild Card game9%

San Diego 43+ points

Wild Card

8San DiegoHome9Seattle

72% of this route
- above ColoradoColorado 1+ point back (>99%)
28% of this route
- above LA GalaxyLA Galaxy under 47 points (96%)
- below ColoradoColorado under 52 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,341. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	62
2	Vancouver	59
3	San Jose	59
4	St. Louis	58
5	Houston	57
6	LAFC	52
7	Portland	49
8	San Diego	45
9	Seattle	44
-	LA Galaxy	43
-	Colorado	42

Play the Wild Card game away13%

San Diego 42+ points

Wild Card

8SeattleHome9San Diego

71% of this route
- above LA GalaxyLA Galaxy out of the postseason (>99%) · LA Galaxy under 45 points (92%)
29% of this route
- below LA GalaxyLA Galaxy under 50 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,805. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	64
2	Vancouver	61
3	San Jose	55
4	St. Louis	55
5	LAFC	52
6	Houston	51
7	Portland	44
8	Seattle	44
9	San Diego	44
-	LA Galaxy	42
-	Colorado	42
-	Austin	40

Miss the postseason72%

San Diego under 44 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 14,302. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	63
2	Dallas	60
3	St. Louis	54
4	San Jose	53
5	Houston	51
6	LAFC	47
7	Portland	46
8	Colorado	45
9	Seattle	45
-	LA Galaxy	44
-	Salt Lake	41
-	San Diego	40