Magic Number - Minnesota United FC 2026

Playoffs6%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

5

Lose the next 5 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Sat 24 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home8:30 PM EDTMinnesota6%PlayoffsHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%Win → 12% · Draw → 4% · Loss → 3%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepSeattle3Minnesota▼ -7113% → 6%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

14th in the table · 27th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 14th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTMinnesota6%PlayoffsHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%Win → 12% · Draw → 4% · Loss → 3%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away9:30 PM EDTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 45%Draw 26%MIN 29%6% → 3% – 13%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home4:30 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 35%Draw 27%STL 38%6% → 2% – 9%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Draw 25%MIN 24%6% → 2% – 12%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%6% → 3% – 12%Playoffs Wednesday · Away9:30 PM EDTColorado67%PlayoffsMatch resultCOL 45%Draw 26%MIN 29%6% → 3% – 13%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home4:30 PM EDTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 35%Draw 27%STL 38%6% → 2% – 9%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Draw 25%MIN 24%6% → 2% – 12%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTSporting KC<1%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 57%Draw 23%SKC 20%6% → 1% – 7%Playoffs Sun 1 Nov · Away8:30 PM ESTLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 54%Draw 24%MIN 22%6% → 2% – 13%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTSan Jose>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 40%Draw 27%SJ 33%6% → 2% – 12%Playoffs

History

Final · Away26 SepSeattle3Minnesota▼ -7113% → 6%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepLA Galaxy3Minnesota▼ -11224% → 13%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepSt. Louis4Minnesota▼ -8232% → 24%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Away26 SepSeattle3Minnesota▼ -7113% → 6%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepLA Galaxy3Minnesota▼ -11224% → 13%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepSt. Louis4Minnesota▼ -8232% → 24%Playoffs Final · Home9 SepDallas2Minnesota▼ -32162% → 30%Playoffs Final · Away5 SepPortland5Minnesota±0462% → 62%Playoffs Final · Home29 AugOrlando3Minnesota▼ -6362% → 56%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugSan Jose1Minnesota±0542% → 42%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugAtlanta2Minnesota▼ -18161% → 43%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugSalt Lake1Minnesota±0166% → 66%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugSan Diego1Minnesota±0173% → 73%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulVancouver0Minnesota▼ -8083% → 75%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulSporting KC2Minnesota▼ -5188% → 83%Playoffs Final · Home23 MaySalt Lake1Minnesota1 Final · Away16 MayNew England2Minnesota1 Final · Home13 MayColorado1Minnesota0 Final · Home10 MayAustin2Minnesota2 Final · Away2 MayColumbus2Minnesota3 Final · Home25 AprLAFC1Minnesota0 Final · Away22 AprDallas0Minnesota1 Final · Home18 AprPortland0Minnesota2 Final · Away11 AprSan Diego1Minnesota2 Final · Away4 AprLA Galaxy1Minnesota2 Final · Home22 MarSeattle0Minnesota0 Final · Away15 MarVancouver6Minnesota0 Final · Away7 MarNashville3Minnesota1 Final · Home28 FebCincinnati0Minnesota1 Final · Away21 FebAustin2Minnesota2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 1 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Minnesota 50+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road1%

A possible long-shot route: 132 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Minnesota 45+ points

Host the Wild Card game2%

Minnesota 43+ points

Wild Card

8MinnesotaHome9San Diego

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 338. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Houston	60
2	St. Louis	60
3	Vancouver	57
4	San Jose	53
5	Dallas	52
6	LAFC	50
7	Seattle	48
8	Minnesota	45
9	San Diego	44
-	LA Galaxy	43
-	Salt Lake	42
-	Colorado	42

Play the Wild Card game away3%

Minnesota 42+ points

Wild Card

8ColoradoHome9Minnesota

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 667. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	San Jose	59
2	Vancouver	56
3	Houston	54
4	St. Louis	54
5	Seattle	54
6	LAFC	53
7	Dallas	52
8	Colorado	50
9	Minnesota	44
-	LA Galaxy	43
-	Salt Lake	40
-	Austin	40

Miss the postseason94%

Minnesota under 43 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 18,862. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Dallas	61
2	Vancouver	60
3	San Jose	55
4	Houston	55
5	St. Louis	54
6	LAFC	52
7	LA Galaxy	45
8	San Diego	44
9	Salt Lake	43
-	Seattle	42
-	Colorado	41
-	Minnesota	38