Magic Number - New York Red Bulls 2026

Playoffs52%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 35%Draw 27%CHI 38%Win → 64% · Draw → 45% · Loss → 38%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugNashville1NY Red Bulls▼ -7059% → 52%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup<1%

8th in the table · 18th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 9th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 35%Draw 27%CHI 38%Win → 64% · Draw → 45% · Loss → 38%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sat 29 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 39%Draw 27%PHI 34%52% → 34% – 63%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 52%Draw 24%RBNY 24%52% → 42% – 63%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 60%Draw 22%RBNY 18%52% → 44% – 66%Playoffs

Full schedule14 to play

Saturday · Home7:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 35%Draw 27%CHI 38%52% → 38% – 64%Playoffs Sat 29 Aug · Home7:30 PM EDTPhiladelphia36%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 39%Draw 27%PHI 34%52% → 34% – 63%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away8:30 PM EDTSeattle64%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 52%Draw 24%RBNY 24%52% → 42% – 63%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTLAFC99%PlayoffsMatch resultLAFC 60%Draw 22%RBNY 18%52% → 44% – 66%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTColumbus26%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 49%Draw 25%RBNY 26%52% → 42% – 66%Playoffs Fri 18 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTNY City82%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 52%Draw 24%RBNY 24%52% → 42% – 65%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Home7:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 40%Draw 27%STL 33%52% → 38% – 60%Playoffs Sat 10 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 36%Draw 27%SD 37%52% → 41% – 63%Playoffs Wed 14 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTDC27%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 42%Draw 26%RBNY 32%52% → 40% – 64%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 47%Draw 26%TOR 27%52% → 35% – 60%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Home5:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 25%Draw 25%MIA 50%52% → 44% – 66%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNew England96%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 47%Draw 26%RBNY 27%52% → 42% – 64%Playoffs Sun 1 Nov · Away4:30 PM ESTNashville>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNSH 64%Draw 20%RBNY 16%52% → 46% – 67%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Home4:00 PM ESTAtlanta6%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 51%Draw 25%ATL 24%52% → 39% – 61%Playoffs

History

Final · Home19 AugNashville1NY Red Bulls▼ -7059% → 52%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugAtlanta2NY Red Bulls±0172% → 72%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugOrlando2NY Red Bulls±0357% → 57%Playoffs

All results20 played

Final · Home19 AugNashville1NY Red Bulls▼ -7059% → 52%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugAtlanta2NY Red Bulls±0172% → 72%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugOrlando2NY Red Bulls±0357% → 57%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulCharlotte2NY Red Bulls▼ -8080% → 72%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulPhiladelphia3NY Red Bulls▼ -6186% → 80%Playoffs Final · Away23 MaySporting KC1NY Red Bulls2 Final · Home16 MayNY City1NY Red Bulls1 Final · Home13 MayColumbus2NY Red Bulls3 Final · Away9 MayChicago1NY Red Bulls3 Final · Home2 MayDallas2NY Red Bulls0 Final · Away25 AprCincinnati2NY Red Bulls0 Final · Home22 AprDC4NY Red Bulls4 Final · Away18 AprMontreal4NY Red Bulls1 Final · Away11 AprMiami2NY Red Bulls2 Final · Home4 AprCincinnati2NY Red Bulls4 Final · Away21 MarCharlotte6NY Red Bulls1 Final · Away14 MarToronto1NY Red Bulls1 Final · Home8 MarMontreal3NY Red Bulls0 Final · Home28 FebNew England0NY Red Bulls1 Final · Away21 FebOrlando1NY Red Bulls2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home2%

NY Red Bulls 49+ points

Round One

4NY Red BullsHome5Philadelphia

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 2 Miami v 7 Columbus · 3 Chicago v 6 Cincinnati

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 350. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	71
2	Miami	64
3	Chicago	55
4	NY Red Bulls	52
5	Philadelphia	49
6	Cincinnati	49
7	Columbus	48
8	Charlotte	48
9	New England	48
-	Orlando	40
-	Montreal	40

Reach Round One directly, on the road20%

NY Red Bulls 44+ points

Round One

2ChicagoHome7NY Red Bulls

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Miami v 6 Charlotte · 4 New England v 5 Cincinnati

77% of this route
- above NY CityNY City 1+ point back (94%)
23% of this route
- below NY CityNY City under 55 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,037. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	79
2	Chicago	61
3	Miami	59
4	New England	53
5	Cincinnati	50
6	Charlotte	49
7	NY Red Bulls	47
8	NY City	43
9	DC	43
-	Orlando	42
-	Philadelphia	42

Host the Wild Card game15%

NY Red Bulls 42+ points

Wild Card

8NY Red BullsHome9Columbus

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,963. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	71
2	Miami	63
3	Chicago	51
4	NY City	51
5	New England	51
6	Charlotte	49
7	Cincinnati	49
8	NY Red Bulls	44
9	Columbus	44
-	Toronto	43
-	Orlando	41
-	Philadelphia	39
-	DC	39

Play the Wild Card game away15%

NY Red Bulls 40+ points

Wild Card

8PhiladelphiaHome9NY Red Bulls

66% of this route
- above DCDC out of the postseason (>99%) · DC 1+ point back (93%)
- above ColumbusColumbus out of the postseason (>99%) · Columbus 1+ point back (97%)
18% of this route
- below DCDC under 50 points (90%)
- above ColumbusColumbus out of the postseason (94%) · Columbus under 42 points (90%)
16% of this route
- above DCDC out of the postseason (>99%) · DC 1+ point back (92%)
- below ColumbusColumbus under 49 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,036. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	71
2	Miami	69
3	Cincinnati	55
4	Chicago	53
5	New England	49
6	NY City	49
7	Charlotte	47
8	Philadelphia	43
9	NY Red Bulls	42
-	Montreal	39
-	Toronto	37
-	Columbus	37
-	DC	37

Miss the postseason48%

NY Red Bulls under 43 points

48% of this route
- below PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia under 48 points (91%)
- below DCDC under 48 points (93%)
27% of this route
- above PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia 1+ point back (>99%)
25% of this route
- below PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia under 49 points (92%)
- above DCDC 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,658. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	69
2	Miami	64
3	Cincinnati	57
4	Charlotte	55
5	Chicago	53
6	New England	44
7	Orlando	43
8	NY City	43
9	Philadelphia	42
-	DC	42
-	NY Red Bulls	37