Magic Number - St. Louis City 2026

Playoffs74%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Home8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%Win → 81% · Draw → 68% · Loss → 61%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away19 AugSporting KC1St. Louis▲ +1173% → 74%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference<1%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup1%

6th in the table · 14th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 7th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTSt. Louis74%PlayoffsHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%Win → 81% · Draw → 68% · Loss → 61%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 30 Aug · Home7:00 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 40%Draw 27%DAL 33%74% → 63% – 84%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 59%Draw 22%STL 19%74% → 70% – 87%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 45%Draw 26%STL 29%74% → 66% – 86%Playoffs

Full schedule14 to play

Saturday · Home8:30 PM EDTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 39%Draw 27%HOU 34%74% → 61% – 81%Playoffs Sun 30 Aug · Home7:00 PM EDTDallas93%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 40%Draw 27%DAL 33%74% → 63% – 84%Playoffs Sat 5 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultVAN 59%Draw 22%STL 19%74% → 70% – 87%Playoffs Wed 9 Sep · Away10:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 45%Draw 26%STL 29%74% → 66% – 86%Playoffs Sat 12 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 43%Draw 26%MIN 31%74% → 64% – 85%Playoffs Sat 19 Sep · Home8:30 PM EDTToronto14%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 52%Draw 24%TOR 24%74% → 62% – 82%Playoffs Sat 26 Sep · Away7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls52%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 40%Draw 27%STL 33%74% → 65% – 83%Playoffs Sun 11 Oct · Home7:00 PM EDTLA Galaxy9%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 50%Draw 25%LA 25%74% → 58% – 80%Playoffs Wed 14 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTVancouver>99%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 32%Draw 26%VAN 42%74% → 64% – 82%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away4:30 PM EDTMinnesota43%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 47%Draw 26%STL 27%74% → 62% – 83%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away8:30 PM EDTSalt Lake85%PlayoffsMatch resultRSL 46%Draw 26%STL 28%74% → 63% – 83%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTPortland49%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 45%Draw 26%POR 29%74% → 58% – 81%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Home3:00 PM EDTSan Diego56%PlayoffsMatch resultSTL 40%Draw 27%SD 33%74% → 58% – 80%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Away7:00 PM ESTHouston99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 50%Draw 25%STL 25%74% → 64% – 79%Playoffs

History

Final · Away19 AugSporting KC1St. Louis▲ +1173% → 74%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugSan Jose1St. Louis±0358% → 58%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugSalt Lake1St. Louis▲ +1165% → 66%Playoffs

All results20 played

Final · Away19 AugSporting KC1St. Louis▲ +1173% → 74%Playoffs Final · Away15 AugSan Jose1St. Louis±0358% → 58%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugSalt Lake1St. Louis▲ +1165% → 66%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulColorado0St. Louis▲ +14134% → 48%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulLA Galaxy1St. Louis▲ +3331% → 34%Playoffs Final · Home16 JulSporting KC2St. Louis3 Final · Home23 MayAustin0St. Louis3 Final · Away16 MayDC1St. Louis1 Final · Home13 MayLAFC1St. Louis2 Final · Away9 MayColorado0St. Louis1 Final · Away3 MayAustin2St. Louis0 Final · Home25 AprSan Jose3St. Louis2 Final · Away18 AprSeattle4St. Louis1 Final · Away11 AprDallas1St. Louis1 Final · Away4 AprNY City1St. Louis1 Final · Home21 MarNew England1St. Louis3 Final · Away14 MarLAFC2St. Louis0 Final · Home7 MarSeattle1St. Louis0 Final · Away1 MarSan Diego2St. Louis0 Final · Home21 FebCharlotte1St. Louis1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home14%

St. Louis 52+ points

Round One

4St. LouisHome5Salt Lake

Alongside it: 1 Houston v Wild Card winner · 2 LAFC v 7 San Jose · 3 Vancouver v 6 Dallas

69% of this route
- above DallasDallas 1+ point back (96%)
- above San JoseSan Jose 1+ point back (99%)
16% of this route
- below DallasDallas under 64 points (94%)
15% of this route
- above DallasDallas 1+ point back (97%)
- below San JoseSan Jose under 64 points (93%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,932. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Houston	63
2	LAFC	60
3	Vancouver	59
4	St. Louis	56
5	Salt Lake	51
6	Dallas	50
7	San Jose	50
8	Portland	47
9	San Diego	45
-	Colorado	44
-	Minnesota	42

Reach Round One directly, on the road35%

St. Louis 48+ points

Round One

3HoustonHome6St. Louis

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 LAFC v 7 Colorado · 4 San Jose v 5 Dallas

86% of this route
- above San DiegoSan Diego 2+ points back (91%)
14% of this route
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 57 points (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,086. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	63
2	LAFC	58
3	Houston	57
4	San Jose	54
5	Dallas	53
6	St. Louis	51
7	Colorado	48
8	Seattle	48
9	Minnesota	45
-	San Diego	45
-	Portland	44

Host the Wild Card game13%

St. Louis 46+ points

Wild Card

8St. LouisHome9San Diego

74% of this route
- below DallasDallas under 61 points (92%)
- below San JoseSan Jose under 60 points (90%)
14% of this route
- below DallasDallas under 62 points (93%)
- above San JoseSan Jose 1+ point back (99%)
12% of this route
- above DallasDallas under 50 points (96%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,906. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	65
2	LAFC	64
3	Houston	61
4	Salt Lake	56
5	Dallas	55
6	San Jose	54
7	Portland	52
8	St. Louis	48
9	San Diego	47
-	Minnesota	42
-	Seattle	40

Play the Wild Card game away12%

St. Louis 44+ points

Wild Card

8San DiegoHome9St. Louis

86% of this route
- below Salt LakeSalt Lake under 59 points (91%)
14% of this route
- above Salt LakeSalt Lake out of the postseason (>99%) · Salt Lake 1+ point back (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,020. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	LAFC	60
2	Vancouver	55
3	Houston	54
4	Salt Lake	53
5	San Jose	52
6	Dallas	52
7	Minnesota	52
8	San Diego	50
9	St. Louis	47
-	Seattle	46
-	Colorado	45

Miss the postseason26%

St. Louis under 48 points

63% of this route
- below MinnesotaMinnesota under 54 points (93%)
- below San DiegoSan Diego under 55 points (92%)
23% of this route
- above MinnesotaMinnesota 1+ point back (>99%)
14% of this route
- below MinnesotaMinnesota under 54 points (91%)
- above San DiegoSan Diego 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,302. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	73
2	LAFC	61
3	Seattle	57
4	Salt Lake	55
5	Houston	54
6	San Jose	51
7	San Diego	49
8	Dallas	48
9	Minnesota	48
-	St. Louis	43
-	LA Galaxy	41