Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
18th by playoff odds32 clubs

New Orleans

18th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs36%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%NO 27%Win → 42% · Tie → 26% · Loss → 20%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division24%
Bye3%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

18th by playoff odds.

NFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%NO 27%Win → 42% · Tie → 26% · Loss → 20%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 68%Tie <1%NO 32%36% → 22% – 40%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 74%Tie <1%LV 26%36% → 18% – 31%PlayoffsMon 5 Oct · Home8:15 PM EDTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 47%Tie <1%ATL 53%36% → 19% – 39%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 73%Tie <1%NO 27%36% → 20% – 42%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 68%Tie <1%NO 32%36% → 22% – 40%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 74%Tie <1%LV 26%36% → 18% – 31%PlayoffsMon 5 Oct · Home8:15 PM EDTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 47%Tie <1%ATL 53%36% → 19% – 39%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 37%Tie <1%MIN 62%36% → 24% – 42%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTGiants18%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 47%Tie <1%NO 53%36% → 23% – 39%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home9:30 AM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 39%Tie <1%PIT 61%36% → 27% – 42%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 62%Tie <1%CLE 38%36% → 22% – 38%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 54%Tie <1%CAR 46%36% → 23% – 41%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 74%Tie <1%NO 25%36% → 27% – 43%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 56%Tie <1%NO 44%36% → 25% – 40%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 43%Tie <1%GB 57%36% → 25% – 41%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 60%Tie <1%NO 40%36% → 25% – 43%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 59%Tie <1%NO 40%36% → 27% – 46%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 73%Tie <1%ARI 27%36% → 25% – 40%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 66%Tie <1%NO 33%36% → 26% – 47%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 55%Tie <1%TB 45%36% → 24% – 41%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye3%

New Orleans 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1New OrleansHomeWild Card Round winner4 Green Bay or 5 Atlanta

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 511. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New Orleans1520
2Dallas1340
3Seattle1250
4Green Bay1151
5Atlanta1151
6Detroit1070
7Giants1070
-Philadelphia1070
-Rams980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game21%

New Orleans 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3New OrleansHome6Giants

Alongside it: 2 Green Bay v 7 Seattle · 4 49ers v 5 Chicago

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,210. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Washington1430
2Green Bay1340
3New Orleans1250
449ers1070
5Chicago1250
6Giants1160
7Seattle1070
-Dallas980
-Carolina890
-Atlanta7100
-Tampa Bay6101
Wild Card berth, on the road13%

New Orleans 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
349ersHome6New Orleans

Alongside it: 2 Minnesota v 7 Seattle · 4 Giants v 5 Rams

  1. 46% of this route

    • above Green BayGreen Bay out of the postseason (90%) · Green Bay 1+ game back (93%)
    • above ChicagoChicago out of the postseason (92%) · Chicago 1+ game back (95%)

  2. 28% of this route

  3. 26% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,170. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Atlanta1520
2Minnesota1340
349ers1250
4Giants1160
5Rams1160
6New Orleans1160
7Seattle1160
-Chicago7100
-Detroit7100
-Green Bay7100
Miss the postseason64%