A possible long-shot route: 86 of 20,000 simulations reached it.
New Orleans 12+ wins
NFL · 2026
24th by playoff odds32 clubs
New Orleans
3rd · 1-0-3New Orleans Saints saved.Your home page now opens on it — its chances, how far it has moved, and its next game. Saved in this browser only.Continue with Google
Playoffs21%
Elimination number
12
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
Lose the next 12 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.
Chances
The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.
3rd in the table · 24th by playoff odds.
NFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner
Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.
NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th
Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.
Schedule
The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.
Upcoming
Sun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 64%Tie <1%NO 35%21% → 7% – 16%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home9:30 AM EDTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 38%Tie <1%PIT 62%21% → 6% – 14%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 44%Tie <1%CLE 55%21% → 6% – 13%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home1:00 PM EDTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 33%Tie <1%MIN 67%21% → 8% – 20%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 64%Tie <1%NO 35%21% → 7% – 16%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home9:30 AM EDTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 38%Tie <1%PIT 62%21% → 6% – 14%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 44%Tie <1%CLE 55%21% → 6% – 13%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 49%Tie <1%CAR 51%21% → 5% – 15%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 74%Tie <1%NO 26%21% → 7% – 16%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 63%Tie <1%NO 36%21% → 7% – 15%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 46%Tie <1%GB 54%21% → 6% – 14%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 65%Tie <1%NO 35%21% → 6% – 17%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 50%Tie <1%NO 49%21% → 6% – 14%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 60%Tie <1%ARI 40%21% → 5% – 12%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 67%Tie <1%NO 32%21% → 6% – 16%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 63%Tie <1%TB 36%21% → 7% – 12%Playoffs
Season so far
Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.
Paths
Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.
Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it
Win the division with a first-round bye<1%
Win the division, host a Wild Card game15%
New Orleans 8+ wins
Wild Card Round
3New OrleansHome649ers
Alongside it: 2 Minnesota v 7 Washington · 4 Philadelphia v 5 Rams
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Minnesota | 13 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | New Orleans | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 4 | Philadelphia | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 5 | Rams | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 6 | 49ers | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | Washington | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| - | Green Bay | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| - | Chicago | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Atlanta | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| - | Carolina | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Wild Card berth, on the road6%
New Orleans 9+ wins
Wild Card Round
3SeattleHome6New Orleans
Alongside it: 2 Dallas v 7 Rams · 4 Atlanta v 5 49ers
80% of this route
- above Green BayGreen Bay out of the postseason (93%) · Green Bay under 9.5 wins (91%)
20% of this route
- below Green BayGreen Bay under 13.5 wins (93%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Dallas | 13 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | Seattle | 13 | 4 | 0 |
| 4 | Atlanta | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 | 49ers | 11 | 5 | 1 |
| 6 | New Orleans | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | Rams | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| - | Detroit | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Chicago | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Green Bay | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| - | Arizona | 6 | 11 | 0 |
Miss the postseason79%
New Orleans under 9.5 wins
72% of this route
- below CarolinaCarolina under 12.5 wins (91%)
- below Green BayGreen Bay under 12.5 wins (91%)
15% of this route
- above CarolinaCarolina 1+ game back (97%)
13% of this route
- below CarolinaCarolina under 13.5 wins (96%)
- above Green BayGreen Bay 1+ game back (97%)