Magic Number - Houston Dynamo 2026

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

4

Win the next 4 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Wednesday.

Next upSaturday · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMinnesota6%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%Win → 4% · Draw → 2% · Loss → 1%Conference

Last resultFinal · Home26 SepSporting KC2Houston±00>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Conference2%

Supporters' Shield<1%

MLS Cup3%

5th in the table · 10th by playoff odds.

Western Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 5th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away8:30 PM EDTHouston>99%PlayoffsMinnesota6%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%Win → 4% · Draw → 2% · Loss → 1%Conference

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 44%Draw 26%HOU 30%2% → 1% – 6%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 39%Draw 27%DAL 34%2% → 1% – 8%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTMinnesota6%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Draw 25%MIN 24%2% → 1% – 5%Conference

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away8:30 PM EDTMinnesota6%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%2% → 1% – 4%Conference Wednesday · Away10:30 PM EDTSan Diego28%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 44%Draw 26%HOU 30%2% → 1% – 6%Conference Sat 17 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTDallas>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 39%Draw 27%DAL 34%2% → 1% – 8%Conference Sat 24 Oct · Home8:30 PM EDTMinnesota6%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Draw 25%MIN 24%2% → 1% – 5%Conference Wed 28 Oct · Away10:30 PM EDTSeattle89%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 46%Draw 26%HOU 28%2% → 1% – 6%Conference Sun 1 Nov · Away9:30 PM ESTPortland24%PlayoffsMatch resultPOR 38%Draw 27%HOU 35%2% → 1% – 5%Conference Sat 7 Nov · Home7:00 PM ESTSt. Louis>99%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 41%Draw 27%STL 32%2% → <1% – 4%Conference

History

Final · Home26 SepSporting KC2Houston±00>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepCincinnati2Houston±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepSan Jose1Houston±00>99% → >99%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Home26 SepSporting KC2Houston±00>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home19 SepCincinnati2Houston±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepSan Jose1Houston±00>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home9 SepSalt Lake1Houston±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away5 SepCharlotte0Houston▲ +1099% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home29 AugSan Jose0Houston▼ -10>99% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugSt. Louis2Houston▲ +1199% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away19 AugVancouver0Houston±0199% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugLA Galaxy0Houston±0197% → 97%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugNew England0Houston±0292% → 92%Playoffs Final · Away1 AugSporting KC0Houston±0284% → 84%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulAustin0Houston▼ -11382% → 71%Playoffs Final · Home22 JulDC1Houston▲ +1181% → 82%Playoffs Final · Away23 MayLA Galaxy1Houston1 Final · Home16 MayVancouver0Houston1 Final · Away13 MaySalt Lake3Houston0 Final · Away10 MayLAFC1Houston4 Final · Home2 MayColorado0Houston1 Final · Away25 AprAustin2Houston0 Final · Home22 AprSan Diego0Houston1 Final · Away18 AprOrlando0Houston1 Final · Away11 AprColorado6Houston2 Final · Home4 AprSeattle1Houston0 Final · Away21 MarDallas4Houston3 Final · Home14 MarPortland2Houston3 Final · Home28 FebLAFC2Houston0 Final · Home21 FebChicago1Houston2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home46%

Houston 53+ points

Round One

4HoustonHome5San Jose

Alongside it: 1 St. Louis v Wild Card winner · 2 Vancouver v 7 Salt Lake · 3 Dallas v 6 LAFC

47% of this route
- above San JoseSan Jose 1+ point back (91%)
- below St. LouisSt. Louis under 64 points (93%)
34% of this route
- above San JoseSan Jose 1+ point back (96%)
- above St. LouisSt. Louis under 59 points (92%)
19% of this route
- below San JoseSan Jose under 62 points (93%)
- above St. LouisSt. Louis under 62 points (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,345. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	St. Louis	60
2	Vancouver	59
3	Dallas	59
4	Houston	55
5	San Jose	52
6	LAFC	51
7	Salt Lake	45
8	Seattle	45
9	Austin	45
-	San Diego	44
-	Portland	43

Reach Round One directly, on the road51%

Houston 49+ points

Round One

4San JoseHome5Houston

Alongside it: 1 Vancouver v Wild Card winner · 2 St. Louis v 7 LAFC · 3 Dallas v 6 Colorado

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 10,273. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	62
2	St. Louis	59
3	Dallas	58
4	San Jose	55
5	Houston	52
6	Colorado	49
7	LAFC	48
8	Seattle	46
9	Salt Lake	44
-	LA Galaxy	43
-	Minnesota	40

Reach the Wild Card game2%

Wild Card, host 2% · Wild Card, away <1%

Houston 45+ points

Wild Card

8HoustonHome9LA Galaxy

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Western Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 421. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Vancouver	66
2	Dallas	63
3	St. Louis	59
4	San Jose	55
5	Colorado	52
6	LAFC	51
7	Seattle	50
8	Houston	47
9	LA Galaxy	45
-	Austin	40
-	Minnesota	39

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 11 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Houston under 47 points