Magic Number - New York City FC 2026

Playoffs55%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

7

Win the next 7 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSaturday · Away2:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 51%Draw 25%NYC 24%Win → 76% · Draw → 61% · Loss → 46%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepAtlanta2NY City▼ -1252% → 51%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

9th in the table · 17th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 9th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Away2:30 PM EDTNY City55%PlayoffsChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 51%Draw 25%NYC 24%Win → 76% · Draw → 61% · Loss → 46%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 57%Draw 23%NYC 20%55% → 52% – 80%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 39%Draw 27%LAFC 34%55% → 45% – 75%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 47%Draw 26%NYC 27%55% → 46% – 81%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Away2:30 PM EDTChicago>99%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 51%Draw 25%NYC 24%55% → 46% – 76%Playoffs Wednesday · Away7:30 PM EDTMiami>99%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 57%Draw 23%NYC 20%55% → 52% – 80%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTLAFC98%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 39%Draw 27%LAFC 34%55% → 45% – 75%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultORL 47%Draw 26%NYC 27%55% → 46% – 81%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 54%Draw 24%ATL 22%55% → 39% – 73%Playoffs Sat 31 Oct · Home2:00 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultNYC 57%Draw 23%MTL 20%55% → 39% – 67%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultDC 37%Draw 27%NYC 36%55% → 41% – 69%Playoffs

History

Final · Away26 SepAtlanta2NY City▼ -1252% → 51%Playoffs Final · Home18 SepNY Red Bulls1NY City▼ -24075% → 51%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepSalt Lake0NY City▲ +18258% → 76%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Away26 SepAtlanta2NY City▼ -1252% → 51%Playoffs Final · Home18 SepNY Red Bulls1NY City▼ -24075% → 51%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepSalt Lake0NY City▲ +18258% → 76%Playoffs Final · Home9 SepNew England2NY City▼ -22179% → 57%Playoffs Final · Home4 SepNashville0NY City▼ -1083% → 82%Playoffs Final · Away29 AugToronto1NY City±0182% → 82%Playoffs Final · Away23 AugNew England1NY City±0184% → 84%Playoffs Final · Away19 AugCincinnati2NY City▼ -3185% → 82%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugPhiladelphia3NY City▼ -8293% → 85%Playoffs Final · Home31 JulToronto1NY City▼ -3195% → 92%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulChicago1NY City▼ -2393% → 91%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulColumbus1NY City▲ +11282% → 93%Playoffs Final · Away23 MayNashville2NY City1 Final · Away16 MayNY Red Bulls1NY City1 Final · Away13 MayCharlotte0NY City1 Final · Home10 MayColumbus0NY City3 Final · Home3 MayDC2NY City0 Final · Away25 AprMontreal1NY City0 Final · Home22 AprCincinnati4NY City4 Final · Home18 AprCharlotte2NY City1 Final · Away11 AprVancouver2NY City0 Final · Home4 AprSt. Louis1NY City1 Final · Home22 MarMiami3NY City2 Final · Home14 MarColorado1NY City3 Final · Home7 MarOrlando0NY City5 Final · Away1 MarPhiladelphia1NY City2 Final · Away22 FebLA Galaxy1NY City1

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at home<1%

A possible long-shot route: 12 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

NY City 51+ points

Reach Round One directly, on the road16%

NY City 44+ points

Round One

2New EnglandHome7NY City

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 Chicago v 6 Philadelphia · 4 Miami v 5 Charlotte

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,136. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	79
2	New England	55
3	Chicago	55
4	Miami	55
5	Charlotte	53
6	Philadelphia	52
7	NY City	47
8	NY Red Bulls	46
9	Cincinnati	44
-	Orlando	42
-	Toronto	39

Host the Wild Card game18%

NY City 43+ points

Wild Card

8NY CityHome9Toronto

50% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (99%)
- above OrlandoOrlando 1+ point back (>99%)
38% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (98%)
- below OrlandoOrlando under 51 points (94%)
12% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 50 points (94%)
- above OrlandoOrlando 1+ point back (95%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,762. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	65
2	Chicago	60
3	Miami	54
4	New England	53
5	Philadelphia	51
6	Charlotte	51
7	Cincinnati	51
8	NY City	45
9	Toronto	43
-	Orlando	41
-	NY Red Bulls	40

Play the Wild Card game away22%

NY City 41+ points

Wild Card

8OrlandoHome9NY City

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,318. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	77
2	Chicago	56
3	Charlotte	55
4	Miami	55
5	New England	54
6	Philadelphia	47
7	Cincinnati	47
8	Orlando	45
9	NY City	43
-	NY Red Bulls	41
-	Columbus	41
-	Toronto	38
-	DC	38

Miss the postseason45%

NY City under 44 points

84% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 48 points (93%)
16% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,552. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	75
2	New England	58
3	Miami	57
4	Chicago	54
5	Charlotte	51
6	Philadelphia	46
7	Orlando	45
8	Cincinnati	45
9	NY Red Bulls	43
-	NY City	40
-	Atlanta	40