Magic Number - Toronto FC 2026

Playoffs11%

Elimination number

The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.

6

Lose the next 6 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Could be eliminated as soon as Wed 21 Oct.

Next upSaturday · Home1:00 PM EDTToronto11%PlayoffsMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 51%Draw 25%MTL 24%Win → 15% · Draw → 6% · Loss → 4%Playoffs

Last resultFinal · Away26 SepNashville2Toronto▼ -2012% → 10%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

ConferenceOut

Supporters' ShieldOut

MLS Cup<1%

13th in the table · 26th by playoff odds.

Eastern Conference finish

1st9th · playoff line15th

Most likely 12th. The top 9 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Saturday · Home1:00 PM EDTToronto11%PlayoffsMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 51%Draw 25%MTL 24%Win → 15% · Draw → 6% · Loss → 4%Playoffs

Upcoming

Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 37%Draw 27%ORL 36%11% → 3% – 19%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 46%Draw 26%TOR 28%11% → 4% – 21%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away3:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 49%Draw 25%TOR 26%11% → 4% – 17%Playoffs

Full schedule7 to play

Saturday · Home1:00 PM EDTMontreal<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 51%Draw 25%MTL 24%11% → 4% – 15%Playoffs Wednesday · Home7:30 PM EDTOrlando77%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 37%Draw 27%ORL 36%11% → 3% – 19%Playoffs Sat 17 Oct · Away7:30 PM EDTNY Red Bulls49%PlayoffsMatch resultRBNY 46%Draw 26%TOR 28%11% → 4% – 21%Playoffs Sat 24 Oct · Away3:30 PM EDTColumbus11%PlayoffsMatch resultCLB 49%Draw 25%TOR 26%11% → 4% – 17%Playoffs Wed 28 Oct · Home7:30 PM EDTDC14%PlayoffsMatch resultTOR 47%Draw 26%DC 27%11% → 2% – 14%Playoffs Sun 1 Nov · Away4:30 PM ESTAtlanta3%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 41%Draw 27%TOR 32%11% → 5% – 17%Playoffs Sat 7 Nov · Away4:00 PM ESTPhiladelphia99%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%Draw 22%TOR 18%11% → 7% – 21%Playoffs

History

Final · Away26 SepNashville2Toronto▼ -2012% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepSt. Louis3Toronto▼ -9121% → 12%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepOrlando3Toronto±0037% → 37%Playoffs

All results27 played

Final · Away26 SepNashville2Toronto▼ -2012% → 10%Playoffs Final · Away19 SepSt. Louis3Toronto▼ -9121% → 12%Playoffs Final · Away12 SepOrlando3Toronto±0037% → 37%Playoffs Final · Home9 SepNashville1Toronto▲ +13223% → 36%Playoffs Final · Home5 SepChicago4Toronto▼ -7430% → 23%Playoffs Final · Home29 AugNY City1Toronto▼ -3132% → 29%Playoffs Final · Away22 AugMiami1Toronto▲ +18214% → 32%Playoffs Final · Home19 AugCharlotte3Toronto▲ +2312% → 14%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugNew England1Toronto±026% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away31 JulNY City1Toronto±016% → 6%Playoffs Final · Away25 JulDC2Toronto▼ -3116% → 13%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulNew England0Toronto▲ +1015% → 16%Playoffs Final · Away16 JulMontreal0Toronto0 Final · Away23 MayChicago2Toronto1 Final · Away16 MayCharlotte3Toronto1 Final · Home9 MayMiami4Toronto2 Final · Home2 MaySan Jose1Toronto1 Final · Home25 AprAtlanta2Toronto1 Final · Home22 AprPhiladelphia3Toronto3 Final · Home18 AprAustin3Toronto3 Final · Home11 AprCincinnati1Toronto1 Final · Home4 AprColorado2Toronto3 Final · Home21 MarColumbus1Toronto2 Final · Home14 MarNY Red Bulls1Toronto1 Final · Away8 MarCincinnati0Toronto1 Final · Away28 FebVancouver3Toronto0 Final · Away21 FebDallas3Toronto2

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Reach Round One directly, at homeNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Reach Round One directly, on the road1%

Toronto 44+ points

Round One

2MiamiHome7Toronto

Alongside it: 1 Nashville v Wild Card winner · 3 New England v 6 Philadelphia · 4 Chicago v 5 Charlotte

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 256. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	68
2	Miami	62
3	New England	59
4	Chicago	57
5	Charlotte	52
6	Philadelphia	50
7	Toronto	46
8	Cincinnati	44
9	Orlando	43
-	NY Red Bulls	42
-	NY City	42

Host the Wild Card game3%

Toronto 42+ points

Wild Card

8TorontoHome9Orlando

65% of this route
- above NY CityNY City out of the postseason (>99%) · NY City 1+ point back (>99%)
35% of this route
- below NY CityNY City under 49 points (92%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 407. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	75
2	Chicago	61
3	New England	56
4	Miami	55
5	Charlotte	54
6	Cincinnati	47
7	Philadelphia	45
8	Toronto	44
9	Orlando	43
-	NY Red Bulls	40
-	NY City	40

Play the Wild Card game away6%

Toronto 41+ points

Wild Card

8NY CityHome9Toronto

81% of this route
- above NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls out of the postseason (>99%) · NY Red Bulls 1+ point back (>99%)
19% of this route
- below NY Red BullsNY Red Bulls under 48 points (91%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,036. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	71
2	New England	59
3	Chicago	57
4	Miami	57
5	Charlotte	56
6	Philadelphia	51
7	Cincinnati	51
8	NY City	46
9	Toronto	42
-	NY Red Bulls	39
-	Columbus	38
-	DC	38

Miss the postseason89%

Toronto under 42 points

How the table finishedthe middle season

The Eastern Conference table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 17,837. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	Pts
1	Nashville	72
2	Miami	58
3	New England	57
4	Charlotte	56
5	Chicago	53
6	Philadelphia	47
7	Orlando	47
8	DC	45
9	NY Red Bulls	42
-	Cincinnati	40
-	NY City	39
-	Toronto	37