Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
15th by playoff odds32 clubs

Carolina

1st · 2-0-2
Playoffs47%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCarolina47%PlayoffsPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%Tie <1%CAR 39%Win → 62% · Tie → 46% · Loss → 45%Division
Last resultFinal · Home4 OctDetroit26Carolina±03236% → 36%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division38%
Bye3%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%

1st in the table · 15th by playoff odds.

NFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

NFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTCarolina47%PlayoffsPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%Tie <1%CAR 39%Win → 62% · Tie → 46% · Loss → 45%Division

Upcoming

Sun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 71%Tie <1%TB 29%38% → 39% – 56%DivisionThu 29 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 59%Tie <1%CAR 40%47% → 48% – 67%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 46%Tie <1%DEN 53%47% → 46% – 65%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%Tie <1%CAR 39%38% → 45% – 62%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 71%Tie <1%TB 29%38% → 39% – 56%DivisionThu 29 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 59%Tie <1%CAR 40%47% → 48% – 67%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 46%Tie <1%DEN 53%47% → 46% – 65%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 49%Tie <1%CAR 51%47% → 41% – 64%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 51%Tie <1%BAL 49%47% → 43% – 62%PlayoffsMon 30 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 42%Tie <1%CAR 58%47% → 42% – 62%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTMinnesota83%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 72%Tie <1%CAR 28%47% → 50% – 68%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 65%Tie <1%NO 35%47% → 41% – 62%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 59%Tie <1%CIN 41%47% → 42% – 61%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 61%Tie <1%CAR 39%47% → 45% – 65%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTSeattle66%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 41%Tie <1%SEA 58%47% → 44% – 66%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 54%Tie <1%ATL 45%38% → 28% – 59%Division

History

Final · Home4 OctDetroit26Carolina±03236% → 36%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepCleveland21Carolina▼ -81840% → 32%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepAtlanta3Carolina▲ +113431% → 42%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home4 OctDetroit26Carolina±03236% → 36%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepCleveland21Carolina▼ -81840% → 32%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepAtlanta3Carolina▲ +113431% → 42%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepChicago59Carolina▼ -63738% → 32%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye3%

Carolina 12+ wins

Divisional Round
1CarolinaHomeWild Card Round winner4 Minnesota or 5 Rams

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 530. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Carolina1430
2Seattle1250
3Giants1151
4Minnesota1160
5Rams1250
649ers1160
7Green Bay1070
-Chicago980
-Dallas980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game36%

Carolina 8+ wins

Wild Card Round
4CarolinaHome5Minnesota

Alongside it: 2 Chicago v 7 Green Bay · 3 Rams v 6 49ers

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,144. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Giants1520
2Chicago1430
3Rams1160
4Carolina1061
5Minnesota1340
649ers1070
7Green Bay980
-Tampa Bay980
-Philadelphia881
-Atlanta791
Wild Card berth, on the road9%

Carolina 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3DallasHome6Carolina

Alongside it: 2 Atlanta v 7 Arizona · 4 Chicago v 5 49ers

  1. 62% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

    • above AtlantaAtlanta out of the postseason (92%) · Atlanta under 9.5 wins (91%)

  3. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,115. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Seattle1340
2Atlanta1250
3Dallas1070
4Chicago1070
549ers1340
6Carolina1070
7Arizona890
-Green Bay890
-Rams890
-Detroit791
Miss the postseason53%

Carolina under 9.5 wins

  1. 70% of this route

  2. 17% of this route

  3. 13% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The NFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,368. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chicago1520
2Dallas1340
3Seattle1250
4Atlanta1070
5Giants1250
6Minnesota1160
7Green Bay1070
-Rams980
-49ers890
-Carolina6110