Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
22th by playoff odds32 clubs

Cincinnati

22th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs32%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 54%Tie <1%TB 46%Win → 19% · Tie → 16% · Loss → 7%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division17%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

22th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 14th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 54%Tie <1%TB 46%Win → 19% · Tie → 16% · Loss → 7%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 84%Tie <1%CIN 16%32% → 10% – 24%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 74%Tie <1%CIN 25%32% → 9% – 25%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 28%Tie <1%JAX 72%32% → 11% – 23%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 54%Tie <1%TB 46%32% → 7% – 19%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 84%Tie <1%CIN 16%32% → 10% – 24%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 74%Tie <1%CIN 25%32% → 9% – 25%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 28%Tie <1%JAX 72%32% → 11% – 23%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 61%Tie <1%CIN 39%32% → 10% – 22%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 69%Tie <1%CIN 31%32% → 11% – 23%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 70%Tie <1%TEN 29%32% → 8% – 17%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away9:30 AM ESTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 67%Tie <1%CIN 32%32% → 11% – 21%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 38%Tie <1%PIT 62%32% → 9% – 20%PlayoffsMon 23 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTWashington25%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 55%Tie <1%CIN 44%32% → 9% – 18%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 56%Tie <1%NO 44%32% → 8% – 17%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 53%Tie <1%CIN 46%32% → 9% – 19%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home4:25 PM ESTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 58%Tie <1%KC 42%32% → 8% – 18%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 61%Tie <1%CIN 38%32% → 10% – 20%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 60%Tie <1%CIN 39%32% → 10% – 21%PlayoffsThu 31 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 44%Tie <1%BAL 55%32% → 11% – 22%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 60%Tie <1%CLE 39%32% → 10% – 23%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye2%

Cincinnati 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1CincinnatiHomeWild Card Round winner4 Denver or 5 Las Vegas

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 387. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cincinnati1520
2Buffalo1520
3Jacksonville1340
4Denver1160
5Las Vegas1070
6Baltimore1070
7New England1070
-Houston1070
-Pittsburgh1070
Win the division, host a Wild Card game15%

Cincinnati 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3CincinnatiHome6Indianapolis

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Cleveland · 4 New England v 5 Denver

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,966. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chargers1610
2Jacksonville1430
3Cincinnati1151
4New England7100
5Denver1520
6Indianapolis1250
7Cleveland980
-Pittsburgh890
-Baltimore7100
Wild Card berth, on the road15%

Cincinnati 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
2JacksonvilleHome7Cincinnati

Alongside it: 3 Pittsburgh v 6 Tennessee · 4 Kansas City v 5 New England

  1. 68% of this route

    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (92%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (96%)
    • above MiamiMiami out of the postseason (94%) · Miami 1+ game back (96%)

  2. 18% of this route

  3. 14% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,085. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1340
2Jacksonville1340
3Pittsburgh1340
4Kansas City1160
5New England1160
6Tennessee1160
7Cincinnati1160
-Denver980
-Baltimore7100
-Indianapolis6110
-Miami6110
Miss the postseason68%