MLB · 2026
updated today · as of 20 Aug 2026
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The World Series race
The chance of winning the World Series, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.
The chance of winning the World Series, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.
Who ends the season with it, before the full table below.
The other 17 clubs share 4% of the World Series between them.
Realistic chance13 of 30 clubs
Biggest gameFriday 9:40 PM EDTEvery club with at least 1% of the World Series.
San Diego v Minnesota
The race
Chances by division, league, or all clubs. Each division winner advances. The rest chase 3 league-wide wild cards.
Division
Every division carries 5 clubs.
AL Central
PlayoffsPW-LPCTGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1White SoxPlayoffs84%12666-60.524-Division75%
Bye56%
Pennant12%
World Series4%
Division13%
Bye8%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division7%
Bye3%
Pennant2%
World Series<1%
Division5%
Bye3%
Pennant1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
AL East
PlayoffsPW-LPCTGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1Tampa BayPlayoffs>99%12676-50.603-Division80%
Bye80%
Pennant29%
World Series14%
Division18%
Bye18%
Pennant20%
World Series10%
Division3%
Bye3%
Pennant14%
World Series7%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant1%
World Series<1%
AL West
PlayoffsPW-LPCTGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1HoustonPlayoffs66%12663-63.500-Division60%
Bye20%
Pennant10%
World Series3%
Division24%
Bye6%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division16%
Bye3%
Pennant2%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
NL Central
PlayoffsPW-LPCTGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1MilwaukeePlayoffs>99%12778-49.614-Division90%
Bye86%
Pennant33%
World Series20%
Division10%
Bye9%
Pennant14%
World Series8%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
NL East
PlayoffsPW-LPCTGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1AtlantaPlayoffs98%12774-53.583-Division79%
Bye20%
Pennant11%
World Series6%
Division21%
Bye2%
Pennant9%
World Series5%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
NL West
PlayoffsPW-LPCTGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1DodgersPlayoffs>99%12776-51.598-Division99%
Bye83%
Pennant26%
World Series15%
Division1%
Bye<1%
Pennant5%
World Series3%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant2%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
League
American League · Division leaders3 clubs
American League · Wild Card12 clubs
PlayoffsPW-LPCTWCGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1YankeesPlayoffs>99%12671-55.564+9Division18%
Bye18%
Pennant20%
World Series10%
Division3%
Bye3%
Pennant14%
World Series7%
Division13%
Bye8%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Wild-card cutoff
4TexasPlayoffs34%12662-64.492-Division24%
Bye6%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division7%
Bye3%
Pennant2%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant1%
World Series<1%
Division5%
Bye3%
Pennant1%
World Series<1%
Division16%
Bye3%
Pennant2%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
National League · Division leaders3 clubs
National League · Wild Card12 clubs
PlayoffsPW-LPCTWCGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1CubsPlayoffs99%12874-54.578+6Division10%
Bye9%
Pennant14%
World Series8%
Division21%
Bye2%
Pennant9%
World Series5%
Division1%
Bye<1%
Pennant5%
World Series3%
Wild-card cutoff
4ArizonaPlayoffs39%12867-61.5231Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant2%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
All clubs
PlayoffsPW-LPCTGBDivisionByePennantWorld Series
1MilwaukeePlayoffs>99%12778-49.614-Division90%
Bye86%
Pennant33%
World Series20%
Division80%
Bye80%
Pennant29%
World Series14%
Division99%
Bye83%
Pennant26%
World Series15%
Division79%
Bye20%
Pennant11%
World Series6%
Division10%
Bye9%
Pennant14%
World Series8%
Division18%
Bye18%
Pennant20%
World Series10%
Division21%
Bye2%
Pennant9%
World Series5%
Division3%
Bye3%
Pennant14%
World Series7%
Division1%
Bye<1%
Pennant5%
World Series3%
Division75%
Bye56%
Pennant12%
World Series4%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant2%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division60%
Bye20%
Pennant10%
World Series3%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division13%
Bye8%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division24%
Bye6%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant3%
World Series1%
Division7%
Bye3%
Pennant2%
World Series<1%
Division5%
Bye3%
Pennant1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division16%
Bye3%
Pennant2%
World Series1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Division<1%
Bye<1%
Pennant<1%
World Series<1%
Games that matter
The next 7 days, and what each result would do to each club - on the race labelled beside it.
Friday9:40 PM EDTSan Diego65% → 57% – 70%PlayoffsMinnesota30% → 24% – 34%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%2nd in the NL West, 2nd in the AL Central.Saturday8:40 PM EDTSan Diego65% → 57% – 69%PlayoffsMinnesota30% → 26% – 35%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%2nd in the NL West, 2nd in the AL Central.Wed 26 Aug7:40 PM EDTWhite Sox75% → 68% – 77%DivisionTexas34% → 23% – 34%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 54%TEX 46%1st in the AL Central, 2nd in the AL West.Tuesday7:40 PM EDTWhite Sox75% → 67% – 76%DivisionTexas34% → 23% – 34%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 54%TEX 46%1st in the AL Central, 2nd in the AL West.
More games that matter4 more
Monday7:40 PM EDTWhite Sox75% → 69% – 77%DivisionTexas34% → 22% – 33%PlayoffsMatch resultCWS 54%TEX 46%1st in the AL Central, 2nd in the AL West.Sunday4:10 PM EDTSan Diego65% → 58% – 70%PlayoffsMinnesota30% → 25% – 34%PlayoffsMatch resultSD 60%MIN 40%2nd in the NL West, 2nd in the AL Central.Friday6:40 PM EDTPhiladelphia85% → 86% – 94%PlayoffsSt. Louis10% → 12% – 23%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%2nd in the NL East, 3rd in the NL Central.Saturday6:05 PM EDTPhiladelphia85% → 83% – 92%PlayoffsSt. Louis10% → 13% – 21%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 60%STL 40%2nd in the NL East, 3rd in the NL Central.
How the race got here
The season behind today's table, told two ways.
The trajectory
Playoff odds at every published forecast. The six biggest movers are drawn; tap any club to add it.
Show a club
Turning points
The results that changed a race. Each names the race it moved, and links to its game.
31 JULWhite Sox win 6-1 at Tampa BayDivision: 37% → 53%.31 JULCleveland lose 4-1 to ArizonaDivision: 49% → 37%.13 AUGMinnesota lose 7-1 to PhiladelphiaPlayoffs: 26% → 15%.14 AUGArizona win 2-0 at AtlantaPlayoffs: 42% → 54%.15 AUGCubs lose 8-4 to St. LouisDivision: 23% → 11%.
The published forecast record begins 21 Jul 2026.