Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
8th by playoff odds32 clubs

Cleveland

1st · 3-0-1
Playoffs63%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland63%PlayoffsJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 40%Tie <1%CLE 59%Win → 78% · Tie → 71% · Loss → 55%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home1 OctPittsburgh24Cleveland▲ +122748% → 60%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division34%
Bye9%
Conference7%
Super Bowl3%

1st in the table · 8th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 2nd. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTCleveland63%PlayoffsJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 40%Tie <1%CLE 59%Win → 78% · Tie → 71% · Loss → 55%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 55%Tie <1%BAL 44%34% → 23% – 48%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 34%Tie <1%CLE 66%63% → 54% – 74%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 57%Tie <1%CLE 43%63% → 58% – 79%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 40%Tie <1%CLE 59%63% → 55% – 78%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 55%Tie <1%BAL 44%34% → 23% – 48%DivisionSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 34%Tie <1%CLE 66%63% → 54% – 74%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 57%Tie <1%CLE 43%63% → 58% – 79%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTNew Orleans21%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 44%Tie <1%CLE 55%63% → 57% – 76%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 67%Tie <1%HOU 33%63% → 54% – 74%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 62%Tie <1%LV 37%63% → 52% – 75%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 63%Tie <1%CIN 37%63% → 54% – 76%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTAtlanta51%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 58%Tie <1%ATL 41%63% → 56% – 75%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 52%Tie <1%CLE 48%63% → 56% – 76%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 59%Tie <1%CLE 41%34% → 24% – 47%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 62%Tie <1%IND 38%63% → 53% – 75%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTCincinnati38%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 51%Tie <1%CLE 49%34% → 30% – 48%Division

History

Final · Home1 OctPittsburgh24Cleveland▲ +122748% → 60%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepCarolina18Cleveland▲ +102141% → 51%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepTampa Bay19Cleveland▲ +112330% → 41%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home1 OctPittsburgh24Cleveland▲ +122748% → 60%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepCarolina18Cleveland▲ +102141% → 51%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepTampa Bay19Cleveland▲ +112330% → 41%PlayoffsFinal · Away13 SepJacksonville34Cleveland▼ -71038% → 31%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye9%

Cleveland 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1ClevelandHomeWild Card Round winner4 Kansas City or 5 Chargers

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,746. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1430
2Indianapolis1250
3New England1160
4Kansas City1061
5Chargers1070
6Jets1070
7Pittsburgh1070
-Jacksonville1070
-Buffalo971
Win the division, host a Wild Card game25%

Cleveland 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
4ClevelandHome5Kansas City

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Buffalo · 3 New England v 6 Indianapolis

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,085. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1340
2Jacksonville1340
3New England1250
4Cleveland1250
5Kansas City1340
6Indianapolis1070
7Buffalo980
-Baltimore980
-Pittsburgh881
Wild Card berth, on the road29%

Cleveland 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
2BuffaloHome7Cleveland

Alongside it: 3 Kansas City v 6 New England · 4 Tennessee v 5 Cincinnati

  1. 73% of this route

  2. 27% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,168. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Baltimore1430
2Buffalo1340
3Kansas City1160
4Tennessee890
5Cincinnati1250
6New England1160
7Cleveland1160
-Chargers980
-Denver791
-Las Vegas791
-Houston5120
Miss the postseason37%

Cleveland under 10.5 wins

  1. 75% of this route

  2. 25% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,605. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1430
2Denver1250
3Pittsburgh1151
4Buffalo7100
5Las Vegas1250
6Kansas City1160
7Baltimore1070
-Cincinnati1070
-Indianapolis971
-Cleveland7100