A possible long-shot route: 38 of 20,000 simulations reached it.
Chargers 11+ wins
NFL · 2026
28th by playoff odds32 clubs
Chargers
4th · 0-0-4Los Angeles Chargers saved.Your home page now opens on it — its chances, how far it has moved, and its next game. Saved in this browser only.Continue with Google
Playoffs11%
Elimination number
11
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
Lose the next 11 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.
Chances
The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.
4th in the table · 28th by playoff odds.
AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner
Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.
AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th
Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.
Schedule
The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.
Upcoming
Sun 18 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 73%Tie <1%LAC 27%11% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:05 PM ESTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 71%Tie <1%LAC 29%11% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 56%Tie <1%HOU 44%11% → <1% – 1%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home4:05 PM EDTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%DEN 61%11% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away4:25 PM EDTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 73%Tie <1%LAC 27%11% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away4:05 PM ESTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLAR 71%Tie <1%LAC 29%11% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 56%Tie <1%HOU 44%11% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsMon 16 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 69%Tie <1%LAC 30%11% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 62%Tie <1%NYJ 38%11% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home8:20 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%NE 61%11% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTTampa Bay9%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 49%Tie <1%LAC 50%11% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away4:05 PM ESTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 63%Tie <1%LAC 37%11% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsThu 17 Dec · Home8:15 PM EST49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 33%Tie <1%SF 67%11% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 52%Tie <1%LAC 47%11% → 1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%KC 60%11% → 1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 73%Tie <1%LAC 26%11% → 1% – 2%Playoffs
Season so far
Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.
Paths
Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.
Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it
Win the division with a first-round bye<1%
Win the division, host a Wild Card game3%
Chargers 9+ wins
Wild Card Round
4ChargersHome5Kansas City
Alongside it: 2 Indianapolis v 7 New England · 3 Cincinnati v 6 Pittsburgh
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Indianapolis | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 4 | Chargers | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| 5 | Kansas City | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| 7 | New England | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Denver | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Jacksonville | 7 | 8 | 2 |
Wild Card berth, on the road7%
Chargers 8+ wins
Wild Card Round
3New EnglandHome6Chargers
Alongside it: 2 Las Vegas v 7 Buffalo · 4 Jacksonville v 5 Pittsburgh
55% of this route
- above CincinnatiCincinnati under 9.5 wins (91%)
- above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (90%) · Indianapolis under 9.5 wins (92%)
23% of this route
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 14 wins (90%)
22% of this route
- above CincinnatiCincinnati out of the postseason (94%) · Cincinnati under 9.5 wins (94%)
- below IndianapolisIndianapolis under 13.5 wins (92%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland | 15 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | Las Vegas | 13 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | New England | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 13 | 4 | 0 |
| 6 | Chargers | 9 | 7 | 1 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Baltimore | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Cincinnati | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| - | Indianapolis | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Miss the postseason89%
Chargers under 8.5 wins
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Denver | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Baltimore | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Indianapolis | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 | Kansas City | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 6 | Jets | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| - | Jacksonville | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Tennessee | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Chargers | 5 | 12 | 0 |