Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
11th by playoff odds32 clubs

Denver

3rd · 2-0-2
Playoffs58%
Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
13

Lose the next 13 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away4:05 PM EDTDenver58%PlayoffsChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%DEN 61%Win → 66% · Tie → 64% · Loss → 43%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Away4 Oct49ers24Denver▼ -71465% → 58%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division26%
Bye7%
Conference9%
Super Bowl5%

3rd in the table · 11th by playoff odds.

AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 2nd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 5th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away4:05 PM EDTDenver58%PlayoffsChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%DEN 61%Win → 66% · Tie → 64% · Loss → 43%Playoffs

Upcoming

Thu 15 Oct · Home8:15 PM EDTSeattle66%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 52%Tie <1%SEA 47%58% → 45% – 66%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 35%Tie <1%DEN 65%58% → 42% – 63%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 57%Tie <1%KC 42%58% → 42% – 64%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away4:05 PM EDTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 39%Tie <1%DEN 61%58% → 43% – 66%PlayoffsThu 15 Oct · Home8:15 PM EDTSeattle66%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 52%Tie <1%SEA 47%58% → 45% – 66%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 35%Tie <1%DEN 65%58% → 42% – 63%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 57%Tie <1%KC 42%58% → 42% – 64%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCarolina47%PlayoffsMatch resultCAR 46%Tie <1%DEN 53%58% → 45% – 65%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 68%Tie <1%LV 31%58% → 38% – 61%PlayoffsFri 27 Nov · Away3:00 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 50%Tie <1%DEN 49%58% → 40% – 63%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTMiami9%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 77%Tie <1%MIA 23%58% → 35% – 55%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 34%Tie <1%DEN 65%58% → 36% – 57%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away4:25 PM ESTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 45%Tie <1%DEN 55%58% → 38% – 63%PlayoffsFri 25 Dec · Home4:30 PM ESTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 56%Tie <1%BUF 44%58% → 37% – 59%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 57%Tie <1%DEN 42%58% → 45% – 67%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 73%Tie <1%LAC 26%58% → 38% – 65%Playoffs

History

Final · Away4 Oct49ers24Denver▼ -71465% → 58%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepRams26Denver▲ +63058% → 64%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepJacksonville13Denver▲ +102047% → 57%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away4 Oct49ers24Denver▼ -71465% → 58%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepRams26Denver▲ +63058% → 64%PlayoffsFinal · Home20 SepJacksonville13Denver▲ +102047% → 57%PlayoffsFinal · Away14 SepKansas City31Denver▼ -131060% → 47%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye7%

Denver 12+ wins

Divisional Round
1DenverHomeWild Card Round winner4 Buffalo or 5 Kansas City

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,470. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1331
2Indianapolis1160
3Cincinnati1160
4Buffalo1070
5Kansas City1061
6Jacksonville1070
7Pittsburgh980
-Baltimore980
-Cleveland980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game18%

Denver 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
2DenverHome7Jacksonville

Alongside it: 3 Cleveland v 6 Kansas City · 4 Houston v 5 Cincinnati

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,655. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1151
2Denver1151
3Cleveland1160
4Houston1070
5Cincinnati1160
6Kansas City980
7Jacksonville980
-Baltimore890
-Buffalo890
-Las Vegas890
Wild Card berth, on the road32%

Denver 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4New EnglandHome5Denver

Alongside it: 2 Kansas City v 7 Las Vegas · 3 Tennessee v 6 Pittsburgh

  1. 79% of this route

  2. 21% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,098. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Baltimore1610
2Kansas City1241
3Tennessee1160
4New England890
5Denver1061
6Pittsburgh1070
7Las Vegas890
-Buffalo890
-Cincinnati7100
Miss the postseason42%

Denver under 9.5 wins

  1. 68% of this route

  2. 17% of this route

  3. 15% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 5,683. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Kansas City1430
2Indianapolis1160
3Pittsburgh1070
4Miami980
5Las Vegas1070
6Cleveland1070
7Jacksonville980
-Cincinnati980
-New England980
-Denver7100