Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
11th by playoff odds32 clubs

Pittsburgh

11th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs57%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 65%Tie <1%ATL 35%Win → 80% · Tie → 65% · Loss → 63%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division39%
Bye8%
Conference5%
Super Bowl2%

11th by playoff odds.

AFC North finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 4th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 65%Tie <1%ATL 35%Win → 80% · Tie → 65% · Loss → 63%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 68%Tie <1%PIT 32%57% → 69% – 84%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 74%Tie <1%CIN 25%39% → 48% – 68%DivisionThu 1 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 34%Tie <1%PIT 65%39% → 48% – 66%Division
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTAtlanta48%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 65%Tie <1%ATL 35%57% → 63% – 80%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 68%Tie <1%PIT 32%57% → 69% – 84%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 74%Tie <1%CIN 25%39% → 48% – 68%DivisionThu 1 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 34%Tie <1%PIT 65%39% → 48% – 66%DivisionSun 11 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 72%Tie <1%IND 28%57% → 61% – 79%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTTampa Bay34%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 41%Tie <1%PIT 59%57% → 67% – 82%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 39%Tie <1%PIT 61%39% → 53% – 68%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 77%Tie <1%CLE 23%39% → 49% – 68%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultCIN 38%Tie <1%PIT 62%39% → 52% – 70%DivisionSun 22 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTPhiladelphia65%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 61%Tie <1%PIT 39%39% → 57% – 72%DivisionFri 27 Nov · Home3:00 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 39%Tie <1%DEN 60%39% → 56% – 72%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Home8:20 PM ESTHouston76%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 43%Tie <1%HOU 57%39% → 55% – 70%DivisionMon 14 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 67%Tie <1%PIT 32%39% → 59% – 73%DivisionSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 64%Tie <1%BAL 36%39% → 45% – 72%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTCarolina32%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 71%Tie <1%CAR 29%39% → 51% – 65%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 25%Tie <1%PIT 75%57% → 64% – 77%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTBaltimore48%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 50%Tie <1%PIT 50%39% → 47% – 70%Division

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye8%

Pittsburgh 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1PittsburghHomeWild Card Round winner4 Denver or 5 Kansas City

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,516. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1520
2New England1430
3Indianapolis1331
4Denver1160
5Kansas City1160
6Baltimore1160
7Houston1061
-Buffalo1070
-Miami1070
Win the division, host a Wild Card game31%
Wild Card berth, on the road18%

Pittsburgh 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3CincinnatiHome6Pittsburgh

Alongside it: 2 New England v 7 Houston · 4 Chargers v 5 Buffalo

  1. 83% of this route

    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (92%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (94%)

  2. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,007. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1340
2New England1250
3Cincinnati1160
4Chargers890
5Buffalo1250
6Pittsburgh1061
7Houston980
-Miami980
-Jets890
-Indianapolis6110
-Tennessee5120
Miss the postseason43%

Pittsburgh under 9.5 wins

  1. 55% of this route

  2. 26% of this route

  3. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 4,812. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Houston1610
2Denver1241
3Cincinnati1070
4New England1070
5Tennessee1331
6Baltimore962
7Miami1070
-Buffalo980
-Chargers881
-Pittsburgh5111