MLB · 2026

2nd by playoff odds30 clubs

Tampa Bay

1st · 76-50

Playoffs>99%

Magic number

The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.

23

Win the next 23 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Could clinch a playoff place as soon as Fri 4 Sep.

Next upTomorrow · Home1:10 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 57%TOR 43%Win → 76% · Loss → 69%Division

Last resultFinal · Home19 AugToronto6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division80%

Bye80%

Pennant29%

World Series14%

1st in the table · 2nd by playoff odds.

AL East finish

1st2nd3rd4th5th

1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

American League finish

1st6th · playoff line15th

Most likely 1st. The top 6 in the league make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Tomorrow · Home1:10 PM EDTTampa Bay>99%PlayoffsToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 57%TOR 43%Win → 76% · Loss → 69%Division

Upcoming

Friday · Away7:15 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%80% → 69% – 76%Division Saturday · Away7:05 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%80% → 68% – 75%Division Sunday · Away1:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%80% → 68% – 75%Division

Full schedule36 to play

Tomorrow · Home1:10 PM EDTToronto26%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 57%TOR 43%80% → 69% – 76%Division Friday · Away7:15 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%80% → 69% – 76%Division Saturday · Away7:05 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%80% → 68% – 75%Division Sunday · Away1:35 PM EDTBaltimore9%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 47%TB 53%80% → 68% – 75%Division Monday · Away6:40 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 47%TB 53%80% → 67% – 75%Division Tuesday · Away6:40 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 47%TB 53%80% → 66% – 74%Division Wed 26 Aug · Away1:10 PM EDTDetroit14%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 47%TB 53%80% → 66% – 74%Division Fri 28 Aug · Home7:10 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 55%SD 45%80% → 65% – 73%Division Sat 29 Aug · Home4:10 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 55%SD 45%80% → 66% – 74%Division Sun 30 Aug · Home1:40 PM EDTSan Diego65%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 55%SD 45%80% → 67% – 75%Division Mon 31 Aug · Home6:40 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 60%NYM 40%80% → 66% – 75%Division Tue 1 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 60%NYM 40%80% → 66% – 75%Division Wed 2 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTMets<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 60%NYM 40%80% → 67% – 76%Division Thu 3 Sep · Away8:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 47%TB 53%80% → 68% – 76%Division Fri 4 Sep · Away8:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 47%TB 53%80% → 67% – 76%Division Sat 5 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 47%TB 53%80% → 68% – 76%Division Sun 6 Sep · Away2:35 PM EDTTexas34%PlayoffsMatch resultTEX 47%TB 53%80% → 69% – 76%Division Tue 8 Sep · Away7:15 PM EDTAtlanta98%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 52%TB 48%80% → 70% – 77%Division Wed 9 Sep · Away7:15 PM EDTAtlanta98%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 52%TB 48%80% → 71% – 79%Division Thu 10 Sep · Away12:15 PM EDTAtlanta98%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 52%TB 48%80% → 71% – 79%Division Fri 11 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 58%HOU 42%80% → 71% – 79%Division Sat 12 Sep · Home6:10 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 58%HOU 42%80% → 71% – 79%Division Sun 13 Sep · Home1:40 PM EDTHouston66%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 58%HOU 42%80% → 71% – 79%Division Tue 15 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 69%ATH 31%80% → 69% – 77%Division Wed 16 Sep · Home6:40 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 69%ATH 31%80% → 70% – 77%Division Thu 17 Sep · Home1:10 PM EDTAthletics<1%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 69%ATH 31%80% → 69% – 76%Division Fri 18 Sep · Home7:10 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 53%BOS 47%80% → 70% – 79%Division Sat 19 Sep · Home4:10 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 53%BOS 47%80% → 69% – 77%Division Sun 20 Sep · Home1:40 PM EDTBoston97%PlayoffsMatch resultTB 53%BOS 47%80% → 68% – 76%Division Tue 22 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%80% → 66% – 80%Division Wed 23 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%80% → 67% – 80%Division Thu 24 Sep · Away7:05 PM EDTYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%80% → 66% – 78%Division Fri 25 Sep · Away6:40 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 54%TB 46%80% → 69% – 76%Division Sat 26 Sep · Away7:15 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 54%TB 46%80% → 68% – 75%Division Sun 27 Sep · Away3:05 PM EDTPhiladelphia85%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 54%TB 46%80% → 72% – 76%Division Postponed · AwayDate TBDYankees>99%PlayoffsMatch resultNYY 54%TB 46%80% → 69% – 83%Division

History

Final · Home19 AugToronto6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugToronto10Tampa Bay±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugBaltimore6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs

All results126 played

Final · Home19 AugToronto6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home18 AugToronto10Tampa Bay±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home17 AugBaltimore6Tampa Bay±07>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home16 AugBaltimore10Tampa Bay±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home15 AugBaltimore4Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home14 AugBaltimore6Tampa Bay±05>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away12 AugAthletics4Tampa Bay±08>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away11 AugAthletics4Tampa Bay±012>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away10 AugAthletics6Tampa Bay±010>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away9 AugSeattle1Tampa Bay±04>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away8 AugSeattle2Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away7 AugSeattle1Tampa Bay±02>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away5 AugColorado0Tampa Bay±04>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away4 AugColorado7Tampa Bay±09>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Away3 AugColorado9Tampa Bay±01399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home2 AugWhite Sox9Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home1 AugWhite Sox0Tampa Bay±0199% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home31 JulWhite Sox6Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home30 JulTexas2Tampa Bay±03>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home29 JulTexas0Tampa Bay±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home28 JulTexas4Tampa Bay±01>99% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home26 JulCleveland0Tampa Bay▲ +1199% → >99%Playoffs Final · Home25 JulCleveland0Tampa Bay±0399% → 99%Playoffs Final · Home24 JulCleveland3Tampa Bay±01198% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away23 JulToronto3Tampa Bay▼ -1199% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away22 JulToronto2Tampa Bay▲ +1498% → 99%Playoffs Final · Away21 JulToronto2Tampa Bay▲ +21296% → 98%Playoffs Final · Away20 JulToronto1Tampa Bay7 Final · Away19 JulBoston6Tampa Bay1 Final · Away18 JulBoston7Tampa Bay6 Final · Away17 JulBoston5Tampa Bay3 Final · Away17 JulBoston10Tampa Bay0 Final · Home12 JulSeattle8Tampa Bay2 Final · Home11 JulSeattle1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home10 JulSeattle2Tampa Bay7 Final · Home9 JulYankees12Tampa Bay4 Final · Home8 JulYankees0Tampa Bay3 Final · Home7 JulYankees4Tampa Bay6 Final · Home6 JulYankees5Tampa Bay1 Final · Away5 JulHouston2Tampa Bay0 Final · Away4 JulHouston10Tampa Bay8 Final · Away3 JulHouston1Tampa Bay3 Final · Away2 JulKansas City2Tampa Bay5 Final · Away1 JulKansas City0Tampa Bay4 Final · Away30 JunKansas City4Tampa Bay10 Final · Home28 JunArizona1Tampa Bay5 Final · Home27 JunArizona2Tampa Bay4 Final · Home26 JunArizona1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home25 JunKansas City2Tampa Bay13 Final · Home24 JunKansas City3Tampa Bay5 Final · Home23 JunKansas City12Tampa Bay5 Final · Home22 JunKansas City2Tampa Bay1 Final · Home21 JunWashington3Tampa Bay4 Final · Home20 JunWashington4Tampa Bay3 Final · Home19 JunWashington2Tampa Bay5 Final · Away17 JunDodgers5Tampa Bay4 Final · Away16 JunDodgers1Tampa Bay0 Final · Away15 JunDodgers4Tampa Bay3 Final · Away14 JunAngels3Tampa Bay8 Final · Away13 JunAngels8Tampa Bay0 Final · Away12 JunAngels4Tampa Bay3 Final · Home10 JunBoston5Tampa Bay7 Final · Home9 JunBoston3Tampa Bay4 Final · Home8 JunBoston1Tampa Bay3 Final · Away7 JunMiami4Tampa Bay1 Final · Away6 JunMiami4Tampa Bay3 Final · Away5 JunMiami0Tampa Bay6 Final · Home3 JunDetroit7Tampa Bay2 Final · Home2 JunDetroit8Tampa Bay0 Final · Home1 JunDetroit10Tampa Bay9 Final · Home31 MayAngels2Tampa Bay5 Final · Home30 MayAngels14Tampa Bay3 Final · Home29 MayAngels5Tampa Bay8 Final · Away27 MayBaltimore11Tampa Bay2 Final · Away26 MayBaltimore6Tampa Bay1 Final · Away25 MayBaltimore9Tampa Bay7 Final · Away24 MayYankees2Tampa Bay0 Final · Away22 MayYankees2Tampa Bay4 Final · Home20 MayBaltimore3Tampa Bay5 Final · Home19 MayBaltimore1Tampa Bay4 Final · Home18 MayBaltimore6Tampa Bay16 Final · Home17 MayMiami3Tampa Bay6 Final · Home16 MayMiami10Tampa Bay5 Final · Home15 MayMiami2Tampa Bay7 Final · Away13 MayToronto5Tampa Bay3 Final · Away12 MayToronto6Tampa Bay7 Final · Away11 MayToronto5Tampa Bay8 Final · Away10 MayBoston1Tampa Bay4 Final · Away8 MayBoston2Tampa Bay0 Final · Away7 MayBoston4Tampa Bay8 Final · Home6 MayToronto0Tampa Bay3 Final · Home5 MayToronto3Tampa Bay4 Final · Home4 MayToronto1Tampa Bay5 Final · Home3 MaySan Francisco1Tampa Bay2 Final · Home2 MaySan Francisco1Tampa Bay5 Final · Home1 MaySan Francisco0Tampa Bay3 Final · Away29 AprCleveland3Tampa Bay1 Final · Away28 AprCleveland0Tampa Bay1 Final · Away27 AprCleveland2Tampa Bay3 Final · Home26 AprMinnesota2Tampa Bay4 Final · Home25 AprMinnesota1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home24 AprMinnesota2Tampa Bay6 Final · Home22 AprCincinnati1Tampa Bay6 Final · Home21 AprCincinnati12Tampa Bay6 Final · Home20 AprCincinnati6Tampa Bay1 Final · Away19 AprPittsburgh6Tampa Bay3 Final · Away18 AprPittsburgh7Tampa Bay8 Final · Away17 AprPittsburgh5Tampa Bay1 Final · Away16 AprWhite Sox3Tampa Bay5 Final · Away15 AprWhite Sox3Tampa Bay8 Final · Away14 AprWhite Sox5Tampa Bay8 Final · Home12 AprYankees4Tampa Bay5 Final · Home11 AprYankees4Tampa Bay5 Final · Home10 AprYankees3Tampa Bay5 Final · Home8 AprCubs6Tampa Bay2 Final · Home7 AprCubs9Tampa Bay2 Final · Home6 AprCubs4Tampa Bay6 Final · Away5 AprMinnesota1Tampa Bay4 Final · Away4 AprMinnesota1Tampa Bay7 Final · Away3 AprMinnesota10Tampa Bay4 Final · Away1 AprMilwaukee8Tampa Bay2 Final · Away31 MarMilwaukee6Tampa Bay2 Final · Away30 MarMilwaukee2Tampa Bay3 Final · Away29 MarSt. Louis7Tampa Bay11 Final · Away28 MarSt. Louis6Tampa Bay5 Final · Away26 MarSt. Louis9Tampa Bay7

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye80%

Tampa Bay 93+ wins

Division Series

1Tampa BayHomeWild Card Series winner4 Yankees or 5 Toronto

Alongside it: 2 Houston v Wild Card Series winner

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 15,951. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Tampa Bay	96	66
2	Houston	87	75
3	White Sox	85	77
4	Yankees	91	71
5	Toronto	87	75
6	Boston	86	76
-	Cleveland	85	77
-	Detroit	78	84

Win the division, host the Wild Card SeriesNo sampled route

No sampled route in this forecast: 0 of 20,000 simulations reached it. That is evidence about the sampled forecast, not a proof of impossibility.

Wild Card berth, host the Wild Card Series18%

Tampa Bay 90+ wins

Wild Card Series

4Tampa BayHome5Boston

Alongside it: 3 Houston v 6 Toronto

74% of this route
- below White SoxWhite Sox 3+ games back (91%)
26% of this route
- above White SoxWhite Sox 7+ games back (96%)

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,618. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Yankees	94	68
2	White Sox	86	76
3	Houston	83	79
4	Tampa Bay	92	70
5	Boston	89	73
6	Toronto	83	79
-	Seattle	82	80
-	Detroit	80	82

Wild Card berth, on the road3%

Tampa Bay 87+ wins

Wild Card Series

4BostonHome5Tampa Bay

Alongside it: 3 Houston v 6 Minnesota

How the table finishedthe middle season

The American League table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 525. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
Seed	Club	W	L
1	Yankees	93	69
2	White Sox	88	74
3	Houston	85	77
4	Boston	91	71
5	Tampa Bay	90	72
6	Minnesota	80	82
-	Detroit	79	83
-	Seattle	79	83

Miss the postseason<1%

A possible long-shot route: 1 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Tampa Bay under 85 wins