Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
17th by playoff odds32 clubs

Las Vegas

2nd · 3-0-1
Playoffs46%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
13

Win the next 13 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Away1:00 PM EDTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 69%Tie <1%LV 31%Win → 62% · Tie → 45% · Loss → 41%Playoffs
Last resultFinal · Home4 OctKansas City30Las Vegas▼ -112757% → 46%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division18%
Bye4%
Conference3%
Super Bowl1%

2nd in the table · 17th by playoff odds.

AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 5th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTLas Vegas46%PlayoffsNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 69%Tie <1%LV 31%Win → 62% · Tie → 45% · Loss → 41%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 44%Tie <1%BUF 56%46% → 38% – 60%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 48%Tie <1%LAR 52%46% → 39% – 58%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 46%Tie <1%LV 53%46% → 37% – 57%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTNew England64%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 69%Tie <1%LV 31%46% → 41% – 62%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTBuffalo70%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 44%Tie <1%BUF 56%46% → 38% – 60%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTRams49%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 48%Tie <1%LAR 52%46% → 39% – 58%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJets16%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 46%Tie <1%LV 53%46% → 37% – 57%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away4:05 PM EST49ers80%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 74%Tie <1%LV 26%46% → 42% – 63%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTSeattle66%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 40%Tie <1%SEA 60%46% → 38% – 58%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 68%Tie <1%LV 31%46% → 41% – 65%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 62%Tie <1%LV 37%46% → 44% – 67%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 63%Tie <1%LAC 37%46% → 38% – 59%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home4:25 PM ESTDenver58%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 45%Tie <1%DEN 55%46% → 38% – 63%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 73%Tie <1%TEN 26%46% → 34% – 55%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away4:05 PM ESTArizona10%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 47%Tie <1%LV 53%46% → 38% – 57%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTKansas City80%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 68%Tie <1%LV 32%46% → 43% – 61%Playoffs

History

Final · Home4 OctKansas City30Las Vegas▼ -112757% → 46%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepNew Orleans27Las Vegas±03547% → 47%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepChargers14Las Vegas▲ +132636% → 49%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Home4 OctKansas City30Las Vegas▼ -112757% → 46%PlayoffsFinal · Away27 SepNew Orleans27Las Vegas±03547% → 47%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepChargers14Las Vegas▲ +132636% → 49%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepMiami13Las Vegas▲ +102728% → 38%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye4%

Las Vegas 12+ wins

Divisional Round
1Las VegasHomeWild Card Round winner4 Jacksonville or 5 New England

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 889. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Las Vegas1430
2Baltimore1340
3Buffalo1250
4Jacksonville1160
5New England1160
6Cleveland1160
7Kansas City1070
-Houston890
-Indianapolis890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game13%

Las Vegas 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
4Las VegasHome5Cincinnati

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Kansas City · 3 Cleveland v 6 New England

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,611. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1520
2Jacksonville1520
3Cleveland1430
4Las Vegas1250
5Cincinnati1250
6New England1160
7Kansas City980
-Baltimore890
-Denver890
Wild Card berth, on the road28%

Las Vegas 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4MiamiHome5Las Vegas

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Tennessee · 3 Cleveland v 6 Baltimore

  1. 54% of this route

  2. 28% of this route

  3. 19% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,047. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Kansas City1340
2Jacksonville1160
3Cleveland1070
4Miami980
5Las Vegas1061
6Baltimore1070
7Tennessee1070
-Buffalo980
-Indianapolis980
-Pittsburgh890
-Cincinnati7100
Miss the postseason54%

Las Vegas under 9.5 wins

  1. 70% of this route

  2. 18% of this route

  3. 12% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 7,533. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1430
2Jacksonville1340
3Cincinnati1250
4Kansas City1250
5New England1340
6Cleveland1160
7Denver1061
-Pittsburgh971
-Baltimore980
-Las Vegas7100