Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
31th by playoff odds32 clubs

Las Vegas

31th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs10%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 36%Tie <1%MIA 64%Win → 1% · Tie → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division3%
Bye<1%
Conference<1%
Super Bowl<1%

31th by playoff odds.

AFC West finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 4th. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 36%Tie <1%MIA 64%Win → 1% · Tie → <1% · Loss → <1%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away4:05 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 87%Tie <1%LV 13%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 74%Tie <1%LV 26%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 40%Tie <1%KC 59%10% → <1% – 1%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Home4:25 PM EDTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 36%Tie <1%MIA 64%10% → 0% – 1%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away4:05 PM EDTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 87%Tie <1%LV 13%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDTNew Orleans36%PlayoffsMatch resultNO 74%Tie <1%LV 26%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 40%Tie <1%KC 59%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 90%Tie <1%LV 10%10% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 18 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 18%Tie <1%BUF 82%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home4:25 PM EDTRams60%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 19%Tie <1%LAR 81%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 61%Tie <1%LV 39%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away4:05 PM EST49ers61%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 88%Tie <1%LV 12%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 11%Tie <1%SEA 89%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 92%Tie <1%LV 8%10% → <1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland30%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 70%Tie <1%LV 30%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 21%Tie <1%LAC 79%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home4:25 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 13%Tie <1%DEN 87%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home4:05 PM ESTTennessee14%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 54%Tie <1%TEN 46%10% → <1% – 1%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Away4:05 PM ESTArizona8%PlayoffsMatch resultARI 58%Tie <1%LV 41%3% → <1% – 1%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 72%Tie <1%LV 28%10% → 1% – 1%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye<1%

A possible long-shot route: 49 of 20,000 simulations reached it.

Las Vegas 13+ wins

Win the division, host a Wild Card game3%

Las Vegas 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4Las VegasHome5Cincinnati

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Houston · 3 New England v 6 Buffalo

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 561. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Cleveland1430
2Jacksonville1430
3New England1160
4Las Vegas1160
5Cincinnati1250
6Buffalo1160
7Houston1070
-Pittsburgh980
-Denver890
-Chargers7100
Wild Card berth, on the road7%

Las Vegas 8+ wins

Wild Card Round
2DenverHome7Las Vegas

Alongside it: 3 New England v 6 Chargers · 4 Jacksonville v 5 Baltimore

  1. 72% of this route

    • above Kansas CityKansas City out of the postseason (>99%) · Kansas City 1.5+ games back (92%)
    • above ClevelandCleveland out of the postseason (95%) · Cleveland 1+ game back (94%)

  2. 15% of this route

  3. 12% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 946. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Pittsburgh1610
2Denver1430
3New England1070
4Jacksonville890
5Baltimore1340
6Chargers1250
7Las Vegas1070
-Miami1070
-Buffalo890
-Cleveland6110
-Kansas City5120
Miss the postseason90%