Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
25th by playoff odds32 clubs

Miami

25th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs30%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upSun 13 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDTMiami30%PlayoffsLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 36%Tie <1%MIA 64%Win → 17% · Tie → 9% · Loss → 7%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division13%
Bye2%
Conference1%
Super Bowl<1%

25th by playoff odds.

AFC East finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 12th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Sun 13 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDTMiami30%PlayoffsLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 36%Tie <1%MIA 64%Win → 17% · Tie → 9% · Loss → 7%Playoffs

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDT49ers61%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 76%Tie <1%MIA 24%30% → 10% – 21%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 62%Tie <1%KC 38%30% → 6% – 16%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 72%Tie <1%MIA 27%30% → 7% – 18%Playoffs
Full schedule17 to play
Sun 13 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultLV 36%Tie <1%MIA 64%30% → 7% – 17%PlayoffsSun 20 Sep · Away4:25 PM EDT49ers61%PlayoffsMatch resultSF 76%Tie <1%MIA 24%30% → 10% – 21%PlayoffsSun 27 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 62%Tie <1%KC 38%30% → 6% – 16%PlayoffsSun 4 Oct · Away4:05 PM EDTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultMIN 72%Tie <1%MIA 27%30% → 7% – 18%PlayoffsSun 11 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTCincinnati32%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 61%Tie <1%CIN 39%30% → 6% – 15%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 40%Tie <1%MIA 60%30% → 7% – 16%PlayoffsSun 1 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 31%Tie <1%NE 68%30% → 9% – 21%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 42%Tie <1%DET 57%30% → 8% – 19%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis33%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 56%Tie <1%MIA 43%30% → 9% – 21%PlayoffsSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 77%Tie <1%MIA 23%30% → 12% – 26%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 73%Tie <1%NYJ 27%30% → 8% – 17%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away4:05 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultDEN 83%Tie <1%MIA 16%30% → 13% – 25%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 41%Tie <1%CHI 59%30% → 11% – 21%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 68%Tie <1%MIA 32%30% → 12% – 23%PlayoffsSun 27 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 39%Tie <1%LAC 61%30% → 12% – 22%PlayoffsSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 34%Tie <1%BUF 65%30% → 12% – 23%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTNew England67%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 79%Tie <1%MIA 20%30% → 14% – 24%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye2%

Miami 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1MiamiHomeWild Card Round winner4 Denver or 5 Baltimore

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 366. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Miami1520
2Pittsburgh1430
3Jacksonville1331
4Denver1070
5Baltimore1340
6New England1160
7Houston1061
-Buffalo890
-Cleveland890
Win the division, host a Wild Card game11%

Miami 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
4MiamiHome5Chargers

Alongside it: 2 Pittsburgh v 7 New England · 3 Jacksonville v 6 Houston

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,142. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1520
2Pittsburgh1520
3Jacksonville1250
4Miami1250
5Chargers1430
6Houston980
7New England890
-Buffalo890
-Cincinnati890
Wild Card berth, on the road17%

Miami 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3PittsburghHome6Miami

Alongside it: 2 Buffalo v 7 Las Vegas · 4 Houston v 5 Baltimore

  1. 67% of this route

    • above Kansas CityKansas City out of the postseason (>99%) · Kansas City 2+ games back (91%)
    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (91%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (94%)

  2. 17% of this route

  3. 17% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,283. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Chargers1430
2Buffalo1430
3Pittsburgh1430
4Houston980
5Baltimore1250
6Miami1061
7Las Vegas890
-Tennessee890
-Jacksonville890
-Indianapolis6110
-Kansas City6110
Miss the postseason70%