A possible long-shot route: 22 of 20,000 simulations reached it.
Houston 12+ wins
NFL · 2026
27th by playoff odds32 clubs
Houston
27th by playoff odds · 0-0-4Houston Texans saved.Your home page now opens on it — its chances, how far it has moved, and its next game. Saved in this browser only.Continue with Google
Playoffs12%
Elimination number
11
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
Lose the next 11 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.
Chances
The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.
27th by playoff odds.
AFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner
Most likely 3rd. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.
AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th
Most likely 16th. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.
Schedule
The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.
Upcoming
Sun 18 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 70%Tie <1%HOU 30%12% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Tie <1%NYG 48%12% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away4:05 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 56%Tie <1%HOU 44%12% → 1% – 3%Playoffs
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Away1:00 PM EDTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 44%Tie <1%HOU 56%6% → <1% – 1%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Away9:30 AM EDTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 70%Tie <1%HOU 30%12% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 25 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Tie <1%NYG 48%12% → 1% – 2%PlayoffsSun 8 Nov · Away4:05 PM ESTChargers11%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 56%Tie <1%HOU 44%12% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTCleveland63%PlayoffsMatch resultCLE 67%Tie <1%HOU 33%12% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsThu 19 Nov · Home8:15 PM ESTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 51%Tie <1%IND 48%12% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 29 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 44%Tie <1%BAL 55%12% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 6 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 67%Tie <1%HOU 33%12% → 1% – 4%PlayoffsSun 13 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTWashington18%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 56%Tie <1%HOU 44%12% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 20 Dec · Home1:00 PM ESTJacksonville81%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 36%Tie <1%JAX 63%12% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsThu 24 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultPHI 66%Tie <1%HOU 33%12% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsMon 4 Jan · Away8:15 PM ESTGreen Bay38%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 66%Tie <1%HOU 34%12% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 69%Tie <1%TEN 31%12% → <1% – 3%Playoffs
Season so far
Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.
Paths
Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.
Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it
Win the division with a first-round bye<1%
Win the division, host a Wild Card game6%
Houston 8+ wins
Wild Card Round
3HoustonHome6Las Vegas
Alongside it: 2 Kansas City v 7 Buffalo · 4 Baltimore v 5 Jets
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 13 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 | Kansas City | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 3 | Houston | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 4 | Baltimore | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| 5 | Jets | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | Las Vegas | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Cincinnati | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Cleveland | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Jacksonville | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Indianapolis | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Wild Card berth, on the road6%
Houston 8.5+ wins
Wild Card Round
4ClevelandHome5Houston
Alongside it: 2 New England v 7 Las Vegas · 3 Indianapolis v 6 Kansas City
46% of this route
- above PittsburghPittsburgh out of the postseason (92%) · Pittsburgh under 9.5 wins (92%)
- above CincinnatiCincinnati out of the postseason (95%) · Cincinnati 1+ game back (92%)
28% of this route
- below PittsburghPittsburgh under 13.5 wins (91%)
- above CincinnatiCincinnati under 10.5 wins (91%)
26% of this route
- above PittsburghPittsburgh out of the postseason (92%) · Pittsburgh under 9.5 wins (92%)
- below CincinnatiCincinnati under 13.5 wins (91%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver | 15 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | New England | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 3 | Indianapolis | 11 | 6 | 0 |
| 4 | Cleveland | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 5 | Houston | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 6 | Kansas City | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| 7 | Las Vegas | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Jets | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Baltimore | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| - | Cincinnati | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| - | Pittsburgh | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Miss the postseason88%
Houston under 9.5 wins
86% of this route
- below IndianapolisIndianapolis under 12.5 wins (92%)
14% of this route
- above IndianapolisIndianapolis 1+ game back (97%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
| Seed | Club | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | Jacksonville | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Baltimore | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 4 | Las Vegas | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| 5 | Kansas City | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 6 | Indianapolis | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| - | Buffalo | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Cleveland | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| - | Houston | 5 | 12 | 0 |