Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
2nd by playoff odds32 clubs

Jacksonville

1st · 3-0-1
Playoffs81%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
12

Win the next 12 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Next upSunday · Home9:30 AM EDTJacksonville81%PlayoffsPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 68%Tie <1%PHI 32%Win → 96% · Tie → 89% · Loss → 88%Division
Last resultFinal · Away4 OctCincinnati17Jacksonville±02268% → 68%Playoffs

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division68%
Bye19%
Conference20%
Super Bowl11%

1st in the table · 2nd by playoff odds.

AFC South finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game, what follows it, and what already happened.

Next up

Sunday · Home9:30 AM EDTJacksonville81%PlayoffsPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 68%Tie <1%PHI 32%Win → 96% · Tie → 89% · Loss → 88%Division

Upcoming

Sun 18 Oct · Home9:30 AM EDTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 70%Tie <1%HOU 30%68% → 86% – 94%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 71%Tie <1%IND 29%68% → 81% – 96%DivisionThu 5 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 48%Tie <1%JAX 51%68% → 88% – 94%Division
Full schedule13 to play
Sunday · Home9:30 AM EDTPhiladelphia44%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 68%Tie <1%PHI 32%68% → 88% – 96%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Home9:30 AM EDTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 70%Tie <1%HOU 30%68% → 86% – 94%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Home1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 71%Tie <1%IND 29%68% → 81% – 96%DivisionThu 5 Nov · Away8:15 PM ESTBaltimore61%PlayoffsMatch resultBAL 48%Tie <1%JAX 51%68% → 88% – 94%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultTEN 25%Tie <1%JAX 75%68% → 85% – 92%DivisionSun 22 Nov · Away1:00 PM ESTGiants47%PlayoffsMatch resultNYG 42%Tie <1%JAX 58%68% → 86% – 93%DivisionSun 29 Nov · Home4:05 PM ESTTennessee6%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 84%Tie <1%TEN 16%68% → 83% – 92%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTChicago59%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 53%Tie <1%JAX 47%68% → 87% – 94%DivisionMon 14 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTPittsburgh46%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 67%Tie <1%PIT 33%68% → 84% – 92%DivisionSun 20 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTHouston12%PlayoffsMatch resultHOU 36%Tie <1%JAX 63%68% → 84% – 92%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Away8:20 PM ESTDallas37%PlayoffsMatch resultDAL 41%Tie <1%JAX 58%68% → 84% – 93%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTWashington18%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 76%Tie <1%WAS 23%68% → 81% – 90%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Away1:00 PM ESTIndianapolis40%PlayoffsMatch resultIND 42%Tie <1%JAX 58%68% → 80% – 97%Division

History

Final · Away4 OctCincinnati17Jacksonville±02268% → 68%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepNew England6Jacksonville▲ +103560% → 70%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepDenver20Jacksonville▼ -41363% → 59%Playoffs
All results4 played
Final · Away4 OctCincinnati17Jacksonville±02268% → 68%PlayoffsFinal · Home27 SepNew England6Jacksonville▲ +103560% → 70%PlayoffsFinal · Away20 SepDenver20Jacksonville▼ -41363% → 59%PlayoffsFinal · Home13 SepCleveland10Jacksonville▲ +103455% → 65%Playoffs

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 Game on 4 Oct: 68% to 93%2026-08-032026-10-06

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye19%

Jacksonville 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1JacksonvilleHomeWild Card Round winner4 New England or 5 Denver

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 3,737. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Jacksonville1430
2Las Vegas1250
3Cleveland1250
4New England1070
5Denver1250
6Cincinnati1160
7Kansas City1061
-Baltimore1070
-Buffalo1070
Win the division, host a Wild Card game49%

Jacksonville 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
3JacksonvilleHome6Baltimore

Alongside it: 2 Kansas City v 7 Las Vegas · 4 Cleveland v 5 Denver

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 9,811. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Buffalo1340
2Kansas City1340
3Jacksonville1250
4Cleveland1250
5Denver1070
6Baltimore1070
7Las Vegas980
-Cincinnati890
-Indianapolis791
Wild Card berth, on the road13%

Jacksonville 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
2PittsburghHome7Jacksonville

Alongside it: 3 Kansas City v 6 Denver · 4 Indianapolis v 5 Baltimore

  1. 57% of this route

  2. 25% of this route

  3. 18% of this route

    • above IndianapolisIndianapolis out of the postseason (96%) · Indianapolis 1+ game back (94%)
How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 1,460. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1430
2Pittsburgh1430
3Kansas City1241
4Indianapolis1250
5Baltimore1250
6Denver1070
7Jacksonville1070
-Jets980
-Cleveland890
Miss the postseason19%

Jacksonville under 10.5 wins

  1. 74% of this route

  2. 13% of this route

  3. 13% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,862. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Kansas City1430
2New England1160
3Cleveland1160
4Indianapolis1070
5Las Vegas1160
6Pittsburgh1070
7Tennessee980
-Cincinnati980
-Buffalo890
-Jacksonville791