Magic Number.
NFL · 2026
5th by playoff odds32 clubs

New England

5th by playoff odds · 0-0-0
Playoffs67%
Magic number
The fewest of this club's own wins that alone would clinch a playoff place, no matter what every other result does.
17

Win the next 17 games and a playoff place is mathematically theirs, whatever every other result does.

Elimination number
The fewest of this club's own losses that alone would end its playoff chances, no matter what every other result does.
17

Lose the next 17 games and the playoff place is mathematically gone, whatever every other result does.

Next upWed 9 Sep · Away8:20 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 67%Tie <1%NE 33%Win → 69% · Tie → 56% · Loss → 55%Division

Chances

The races beyond a playoff place, and where they finish.

Division44%
Bye11%
Conference14%
Super Bowl7%

5th by playoff odds.

AFC East finish
1st2nd3rd4th
1st · division winner

Most likely 1st. The division winner takes an automatic berth; everyone else chases 3 league-wide wild cards.

AFC finish
1st7th · playoff line16th

Most likely 1st. The top 7 in the conference make the playoffs.

Schedule

The next game and what follows it. Nothing has been played yet.

Next up

Wed 9 Sep · Away8:20 PM EDTNew England67%PlayoffsSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 67%Tie <1%NE 33%Win → 69% · Tie → 56% · Loss → 55%Division

Upcoming

Sun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 68%Tie <1%PIT 32%44% → 47% – 64%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 57%Tie <1%NE 43%44% → 52% – 68%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 54%Tie <1%NE 46%44% → 45% – 73%Division
Full schedule17 to play
Wed 9 Sep · Away8:20 PM EDTSeattle80%PlayoffsMatch resultSEA 67%Tie <1%NE 33%44% → 55% – 69%DivisionSun 20 Sep · Home1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh57%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 68%Tie <1%PIT 32%44% → 47% – 64%DivisionSun 27 Sep · Away1:00 PM EDTJacksonville70%PlayoffsMatch resultJAX 57%Tie <1%NE 43%44% → 52% – 68%DivisionSun 4 Oct · Away1:00 PM EDTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultBUF 54%Tie <1%NE 46%44% → 45% – 73%DivisionSun 11 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTLas Vegas10%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 90%Tie <1%LV 10%44% → 44% – 59%DivisionSun 18 Oct · Home1:00 PM EDTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 89%Tie <1%NYJ 11%44% → 45% – 60%DivisionThu 22 Oct · Away8:15 PM EDTChicago48%PlayoffsMatch resultCHI 47%Tie <1%NE 53%44% → 51% – 66%DivisionSun 1 Nov · Away4:25 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultMIA 31%Tie <1%NE 68%44% → 46% – 62%DivisionSun 8 Nov · Home4:25 PM ESTGreen Bay43%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 71%Tie <1%GB 29%44% → 47% – 62%DivisionSun 15 Nov · Away9:30 AM ESTDetroit54%PlayoffsMatch resultDET 45%Tie <1%NE 55%44% → 50% – 65%DivisionSun 29 Nov · Away8:20 PM ESTChargers57%PlayoffsMatch resultLAC 49%Tie <1%NE 51%44% → 50% – 64%DivisionSun 6 Dec · Home4:25 PM ESTBuffalo63%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 60%Tie <1%BUF 39%44% → 39% – 66%DivisionThu 10 Dec · Home8:15 PM ESTMinnesota54%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 66%Tie <1%MIN 33%44% → 48% – 64%DivisionMon 21 Dec · Away8:15 PM ESTKansas City24%PlayoffsMatch resultKC 27%Tie <1%NE 73%44% → 49% – 65%DivisionSun 27 Dec · Away1:00 PM ESTJets13%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 18%Tie <1%NE 81%44% → 45% – 61%DivisionSun 3 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTDenver79%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 50%Tie <1%DEN 49%44% → 50% – 67%DivisionSun 10 Jan · Home1:00 PM ESTMiami30%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 79%Tie <1%MIA 20%44% → 45% – 64%Division

Season so far

Playoff odds after every published update. Dots mark the games with the biggest published swing; each opens its game record.

050100 2026-08-032026-08-13

Paths

Every way the regular season can end, measured over 20,000 simulated seasons. The finishes are a complete split of it, so the bar is one whole; open a finish for what has to happen.

Reaches the postseason - stronger green is a better finishMisses it

Win the division with a first-round bye11%

New England 13+ wins

Divisional Round
1New EnglandHomeWild Card Round winner4 Houston or 5 Baltimore

Alongside it: Wild Card Round winner v Wild Card Round winner

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,266. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1New England1520
2Cleveland1340
3Kansas City1160
4Houston1160
5Baltimore1250
6Denver1160
7Indianapolis1070
-Miami1070
-Buffalo980
Win the division, host a Wild Card game32%

New England 10+ wins

Wild Card Round
2New EnglandHome7Chargers

Alongside it: 3 Pittsburgh v 6 Cincinnati · 4 Houston v 5 Jets

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 6,495. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1241
2New England1250
3Pittsburgh1160
4Houston971
5Jets1070
6Cincinnati1070
7Chargers980
-Buffalo881
-Baltimore890
-Miami7100
Wild Card berth, on the road23%

New England 9+ wins

Wild Card Round
3BuffaloHome6New England

Alongside it: 2 Jacksonville v 7 Chargers · 4 Baltimore v 5 Miami

  1. 64% of this route

  2. 22% of this route

  3. 14% of this route

How the table finishedthe middle season
The AFC table in the season closest to the middle of this route, out of 2,957. One season, not an average; the rule marks the last club that reached the bracket.
SeedClubWLT
1Denver1520
2Jacksonville1340
3Buffalo1340
4Baltimore1070
5Miami1250
6New England1160
7Chargers1160
-Tennessee1070
-Indianapolis1070
-Kansas City6110
Miss the postseason33%