Magic Number.

NFL · 2026

updated 2 days ago · as of 6 Oct 2026 64 played · 208 to play

NFL

2026

The Super Bowl race
The chance of winning the Super Bowl, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.

Who ends the season with it, before the full table below.

AFC48%NFC52%

The other 10 clubs share 2% of the Super Bowl between them.

Realistic chance22 of 32 clubs

Every club with at least 1% of the Super Bowl.

Biggest gameMonday 8:15 PM EDT

Rams v Buffalo

The race

Chances by division, conference, or all clubs. Each division winner advances. The rest chase 3 league-wide wild cards.

Division

Every division carries 4 clubs.

AFC East

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1BuffaloPlayoffs70%43-1-0.750-

2New EnglandPlayoffs64%42-2-0.5001

3JetsPlayoffs16%41-3-0.2502

4MiamiPlayoffs9%40-4-0.0003

AFC North

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1ClevelandPlayoffs63%43-1-0.750-

2BaltimorePlayoffs61%43-1-0.750-

3PittsburghPlayoffs46%42-2-0.5001

4CincinnatiPlayoffs38%42-2-0.5001

AFC South

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1JacksonvillePlayoffs81%43-1-0.750-

2IndianapolisPlayoffs40%42-2-0.5001

3*TennesseePlayoffs6%40-4-0.0003

4*HoustonPlayoffs12%40-4-0.0003

AFC West

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1Kansas CityPlayoffs80%44-0-01.000-

2Las VegasPlayoffs46%43-1-0.7501

3DenverPlayoffs58%42-2-0.5002

4ChargersPlayoffs11%40-4-0.0004

NFC East

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1GiantsPlayoffs47%43-1-0.750-

2PhiladelphiaPlayoffs44%42-2-0.5001

3DallasPlayoffs37%42-2-0.5001

4WashingtonPlayoffs18%41-3-0.2502

NFC North

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1MinnesotaPlayoffs83%44-0-01.000-

2ChicagoPlayoffs59%43-1-0.7501

3DetroitPlayoffs39%42-2-0.5002

4Green BayPlayoffs38%42-2-0.5002

NFC South

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1CarolinaPlayoffs47%42-2-0.500-

2AtlantaPlayoffs51%42-2-0.500-

3New OrleansPlayoffs21%41-3-0.2501

4Tampa BayPlayoffs9%40-4-0.0002

NFC West

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

149ersPlayoffs80%44-0-01.000-

2SeattlePlayoffs66%43-1-0.7501

3RamsPlayoffs49%42-2-0.5002

4ArizonaPlayoffs10%41-3-0.2503

Conference

Every conference carries 16 clubs.

AFC

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1Kansas CityPlayoffs80%44-0-01.000

2JacksonvillePlayoffs81%43-1-0.750

3BuffaloPlayoffs70%43-1-0.750

4Las VegasPlayoffs46%43-1-0.750

5ClevelandPlayoffs63%43-1-0.750

6BaltimorePlayoffs61%43-1-0.750

7New EnglandPlayoffs64%42-2-0.500

8DenverPlayoffs58%42-2-0.500

9PittsburghPlayoffs46%42-2-0.500

10IndianapolisPlayoffs40%42-2-0.500

11CincinnatiPlayoffs38%42-2-0.500

12JetsPlayoffs16%41-3-0.250

13*TennesseePlayoffs6%40-4-0.000

14*HoustonPlayoffs12%40-4-0.000

15MiamiPlayoffs9%40-4-0.000

16ChargersPlayoffs11%40-4-0.000

NFC

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1MinnesotaPlayoffs83%44-0-01.000

249ersPlayoffs80%44-0-01.000

3ChicagoPlayoffs59%43-1-0.750

4GiantsPlayoffs47%43-1-0.750

5SeattlePlayoffs66%43-1-0.750

6RamsPlayoffs49%42-2-0.500

7CarolinaPlayoffs47%42-2-0.500

8AtlantaPlayoffs51%42-2-0.500

9DetroitPlayoffs39%42-2-0.500

10Green BayPlayoffs38%42-2-0.500

11PhiladelphiaPlayoffs44%42-2-0.500

12DallasPlayoffs37%42-2-0.500

13WashingtonPlayoffs18%41-3-0.250

14New OrleansPlayoffs21%41-3-0.250

15ArizonaPlayoffs10%41-3-0.250

16Tampa BayPlayoffs9%40-4-0.000

All clubs

PlayoffsPW-L-TPCTGBDivisionByeConferenceSuper Bowl

1MinnesotaPlayoffs83%44-0-01.000-

249ersPlayoffs80%44-0-01.000-

3Kansas CityPlayoffs80%44-0-01.000-

4JacksonvillePlayoffs81%43-1-0.7501

5BuffaloPlayoffs70%43-1-0.7501

6SeattlePlayoffs66%43-1-0.7501

7ClevelandPlayoffs63%43-1-0.7501

8BaltimorePlayoffs61%43-1-0.7501

9ChicagoPlayoffs59%43-1-0.7501

10GiantsPlayoffs47%43-1-0.7501

11Las VegasPlayoffs46%43-1-0.7501

12New EnglandPlayoffs64%42-2-0.5002

13DenverPlayoffs58%42-2-0.5002

14AtlantaPlayoffs51%42-2-0.5002

15RamsPlayoffs49%42-2-0.5002

16CarolinaPlayoffs47%42-2-0.5002

17PittsburghPlayoffs46%42-2-0.5002

18PhiladelphiaPlayoffs44%42-2-0.5002

19IndianapolisPlayoffs40%42-2-0.5002

20DetroitPlayoffs39%42-2-0.5002

21CincinnatiPlayoffs38%42-2-0.5002

22Green BayPlayoffs38%42-2-0.5002

23DallasPlayoffs37%42-2-0.5002

24New OrleansPlayoffs21%41-3-0.2503

25WashingtonPlayoffs18%41-3-0.2503

26JetsPlayoffs16%41-3-0.2503

27ArizonaPlayoffs10%41-3-0.2503

28*HoustonPlayoffs12%40-4-0.0004

29ChargersPlayoffs11%40-4-0.0004

30MiamiPlayoffs9%40-4-0.0004

31Tampa BayPlayoffs9%40-4-0.0004

32*TennesseePlayoffs6%40-4-0.0004

Games that matter

The next 7 days, and what each result would do to each club - on the race labelled beside it.

Monday8:15 PM EDTRams49% → 36% – 57%PlayoffsBuffalo46% → 55% – 77%DivisionMatch resultLAR 53%Tie <1%BUF 47%3rd in the NFC West, 1st in the AFC East.Sunday1:00 PM EDTPittsburgh46% → 35% – 58%PlayoffsIndianapolis40% → 24% – 47%PlayoffsMatch resultPIT 62%Tie <1%IND 38%3rd in the AFC North, 2nd in the AFC South.Sunday4:25 PM EDTSeattle32% → 10% – 31%Division49ers51% → 65% – 87%DivisionMatch resultSEA 55%Tie <1%SF 45%2nd and 1st in the NFC West.Sunday1:00 PM EDTNew England64% → 52% – 76%PlayoffsLas Vegas46% → 41% – 62%PlayoffsMatch resultNE 69%Tie <1%LV 31%2nd in the AFC East, 2nd in the AFC West.

More games that matter4 more

Sunday1:00 PM EDTGreen Bay38% → 14% – 32%PlayoffsChicago59% → 71% – 92%PlayoffsMatch resultGB 49%Tie <1%CHI 50%4th and 2nd in the NFC North.Sunday8:20 PM EDTAtlanta51% → 44% – 61%PlayoffsBaltimore61% → 59% – 79%PlayoffsMatch resultATL 54%Tie <1%BAL 46%2nd in the NFC South, 2nd in the AFC North.Sunday1:00 PM EDTWashington18% → 1% – 11%PlayoffsGiants47% → 34% – 55%PlayoffsMatch resultWAS 50%Tie <1%NYG 50%4th and 1st in the NFC East.Sunday1:00 PM EDTJets16% → 1% – 3%PlayoffsCleveland63% → 55% – 78%PlayoffsMatch resultNYJ 40%Tie <1%CLE 59%3rd in the AFC East, 1st in the AFC North.

How the race got here

The season behind today's table, told two ways.

The trajectory

Playoff odds at every published forecast. The six biggest movers are drawn; tap any club to add it.

Turning points

The results that changed a race. Each names the race it moved, and links to its game.

9 SEPSeattle beat New England 13-10Division: 49% → 78%.17 SEPBuffalo beat Detroit 41-31Division: 43% → 71%.20 SEP49ers beat Miami 35-13Playoffs: 62% → 90%.27 SEPMinnesota win 23-16 at Tampa BayDivision: 45% → 72%.4 OCTJacksonville win 22-17 at CincinnatiDivision: 55% → 87%.

The published forecast record begins 3 Aug 2026.

NFL

The Super Bowl race?The chance of winning the Super Bowl, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.

The race

Division

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Conference

AFC

NFC

All clubs

Games that matter

How the race got here

The trajectory

Turning points

The Super Bowl race
The chance of winning the Super Bowl, over the same simulated seasons the rest of the page is drawn from. One club wins it, so every club's number is its own slice of one trophy and they add to 100%.